UK Weather - Autumn 2015

[Simon Culling]

Yesterday and today have seen some remarkable temperatures recorded in the UK with the November record high maximum broken yesterday at Trawscoed which is in a valley just inland from the west coast of Wales in the county of Ceredigion. This station recorded a max of 22.4*C yesterday which beat the old record of 21.7*C set at Prestatyn on the 2nd of November 1946 under fohn conditions on the N Wales coast. Yesterday's max seems to have been due to persistent subsidence (adiabatic compression) on the west flank of a high pressure bringing the inversion to the ground in places. Nearby stations came close, with 21.5*C at Gogerddan, 21.0*C at Whitechurch (Pembroke) and 20.9*C at Swyddffynnon. The first and last of these are also in Ceredigion. Many other parts of both England and Wales had a sunny and warm day, but with the temperature in the range 16-19*C. However, some places where the fog and low cloud persisted, only saw a top temperature of 12-13*C.

Today (Monday 2nd Nov) has seen a lot of fog persisting all day in many places, but the west of Wales has again been in the clear and I think temperatures have approached 21-22*C for a second day.

[Simon Culling]

We have experienced a very mild start to November although it has been mostly cloudy with rain at times. A near record 22.3*C was recorded on Monday (2nd) again at Trawscoed and each subsequent day has seen high's in the mid to upper teens somewhere in the UK:

Tuesday 3rd, 17.0*C at Braemar (Highlands, Scotland)
Wednesday 4th, 16.4*C at Rhyl (N Wales)
Thursday 5th, 16.4*C at Frittenden (Kent)
Friday 6th, 17.8*C at St James Park (London)
Saturday 7th, 18.3*C at Hull (E England)

We would expect the maximum temperature at this time of year to be between 10-12*C over England + Wales. The mild and more unsettled weather will continue into the coming week with a lowering of the temperatures likely later in the week. No sign of winter, yet.

The final CET for October was 11.0*C (+0.4*C) and the final EWR was 69mm which is 79% of the monthly average. November is running above average on both of these measures so far.

[Simon Culling]

The exceptionally mild weather has continued with the CET for November running at 11.9*C (+4.0*C) up to the 11th and this is one degree higher than October. The EWR up to the 10th was 38mm which is 41% of the monthly average.

The Met Office (in conjunction with Met Eireann) have started naming deep depression from this winter and the first named storm, Abigail, is approaching NW Scotland this evening (Thurs 12th Nov) at 970mb and is expected to bring gusts of 80-90mph to this exposed area. However, the impact on the rest of the UK will be relatively modest. Following on this depression will be another for the weekend which will include the remnants of ex-Hurricane Kate and this system will bring a lot of rain to western high ground, especially North Wales and the Lake District. In excess of 100mm is certainly possible in these areas.

[Simon Culling]

Whilst it was indeed rather wet over the weekend, the expected flooding was thankfully only minor. Upwards of 100m fell over the high ground of northern Wales and England and a couple of sites in the Lake District reported over 200m, but these falls were localised and in prone areas.

We have the second named storm (Barney!!) developing to our west at the moment and this will move across the centre of the UK tomorrow (Tuesday) at around the 985mb level and this will bring some very strong winds to the southern half of the UK. The Met Office is forecasting gusts of 60-70mph inland, so it will be a breezy end to the day tomorrow.

I am not sure of the need to name storms - is this yet another dumbing down? That said, the German Met Office has been doing it for a few years now and the names have been used in the UK at times.

[NZstorm]

I am not sure of the need to name storms - is this yet another dumbing down?

Its silly nonsense to name mid lattitude storms and does not serve the public good. I think this could backfire on the Met Office and more people will switch off from weather warnings.

[Simon Culling]

I tend to agree with you NZstorm, but unfortunately the names have been embraced by the media so we are stuck with them. I will try to avoid using these names too often!

The depression moved quickly across northern England yesterday evening (Tues 17th Nov) at around 985mb giving the southern half of the UK a very windy spell with gusts to 55-65mph even inland, although some damage was reported with a few trees down (not many in leaf now) and some structural problems. Winds up to 85mph were recorded on the Welsh coast, but I think the southern half of Eire was more affected by the wind than England + Wales as wind speeds were 5-10mph higher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34834799

We have another couple of warm and breezy days to come before the weather turns much colder from Friday with some snow showers over the weekend, although this looks to be only a brief taste of winter. Daytime maximum temperatures will drop from the current 14-15*C to around 5*C, so it will be a bit of a shock to the system.

The CET for November was 11.4*C (+4.0*C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 66mm up to the 16th which is 71% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The colder air duly arrived yesterday afternoon and gave a dusting of snow to some areas overnight into Saturday (21st Nov) morning. It was cold and windy today with a max of just 4*C here in Milton Keynes, although there was plenty of sunshine. A frost has already developed early into Saturday evening. We had some snow showers around 6-7am this morning but no more than the odd patch of snow on the ground, but some places in England + Wales had a brief covering and there were 5-10cms over the Pennines and the Yorkshire Moors. There was a covering over parts of Bedfordshire + Hertfordshire to my east and south east, but the heaviest of the showers missed me.

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-11- ... -the-east/

Snow is not a regular visitor in November but is certainly not rare - back in 2010 we had a lot of snow and sub -10*C temperatures at the end of the month. A further small disturbance will track south in the arctic flow overnight tonight so we may get another light dusting of snow here in the Midlands. Looking into next week, this cold snap will slowly fade and it will be back to the unsettled and wet weather from midweek, although nowhere near as mild as it was before.

[Simon Culling]

After a couple of frosty nights it has become cloudy and showery again Monday into Tuesday and this type of weather will persist for the rest of the week before turning a little cooler at the weekend. This time the winds will be west of north so this will bring the cool air off the north Atlantic rather than the Arctic of last weekend and hence it will be cool rather than cold with no snow and only a nip of frost if the wind drops out. No sign of real winter weather yet in the models.

The CET for November was 10.0*C (+3.0*C) up to the 23rd and will fall further for the rest of the month as there will be no return to the exceptionally mild conditions of the first half. The EWR was 88mm up to the 22nd, which is 95% of the monthly average - which will likely be exceeded by the end of the month.

[Simon Culling]

It was cold and cheerless yesterday (Sat 28th Nov) with a strong west wind, occasional showers and only 6*C in the afternoon - after a morning ground frost. Milder weather has arrived today, Sunday, and yes it is raining again and this has set the trend for the week ahead with mild temperatures and rain at times and not much sunshine. The models were flirting with a big high pressure to become established near the UK (by next weekend) a few days ago but that has now gone and has been replaced with pure zonality - but colder in the north as they get incursions of polar maritime air at times.

CET for November up to the 28th was 9.6*C (+2.9*C) and this will make it one of the mildest Novembers on record and the first big monthly anomaly this year. The EWR up to the 27th was 105mm, which is 114% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for November came in at 9.5*C (+2.9*C) making it the third mildest since 1910. The EWR was 125mm which is 135% of the monthly average making it a rather wet month.

Met Office brief summary is at the link below which comments that it was the dullest November on record (digitalised records back to 1929) - sunshine was certainly at a premium. The monthly average for the UK as a whole was just 36.6hrs.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... mber-stats

The lowest temperature for the whole month was just -5.6*C (at Benson, Oxfordshire).