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Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Sun 27/09/2015 21:49
by Tornado Tim
Metservice wrote:During the afternoon, surface temperatures will continue to rise and sea breezes are likely to develop about several coastal areas of the North Island. This should elevate the risk of thunderstorms for much of the north of the North Island.
There is a broad low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for the North Island from inland Taranaki, Wanganui, northern Manawatu and Hawkes Bay northwards, with activity in southwestern areas more likely during the afternoon. The risk increases to moderate for eastern Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Taupo, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay. If these thunderstorms occur they are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter. Although the thunderstorm activity should ease in most places during the evening around East Cape the moderate risk extends until midnight.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
Instability may be a little weak depending on the SFC Moisture..... Hopefully we might get something on a Sea-breeze front.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 00:37
by Tornado Tim
Blimey, Storms initiating now, this late! Just heard a good rumble of Thunder just now
Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 05:06
by jamie
Didn't get woken by the thunder. Got woken by heavy rain now tho.
Radar shows Brian right on the edge of a massive red blob. on the radar.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 07:14
by NZstorm
The set up is crossing Waikato/Auckland a bit early and will be east of the area in the afternoon.
Could be good for hail in Coromandel/Bay of Plenty/Gisborne if they get enough heating over there.
500mb temperature chart for the record.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 07:20
by Manukau heads obs
15mm here overnight that i did not expect
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 07:34
by NZstorm
0.4mm only in Grey Lynn.
500mb vorticity chart shows the vortex well. 00Z today.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 07:39
by Manukau heads obs
I notice a sporadic glitch on rain radar too
line down west coast
heavy shower line that we got to move onto the city this morning?
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 08:56
by David
Manukau heads obs wrote:I notice a sporadic glitch on rain radar too
line down west coast
heavy shower line that we got to move onto the city this morning?
That glitch has been there on and off for at least several days now
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 09:29
by Tornado Tim
Thunderstorm Outlook very much the same from last night:
This afternoon, as surface temperatures rise, sea breezes are likely to develop about coastal areas of the North Island. This should elevate the risk of thunderstorms for much of the north of the North Island.
There is a broad low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for the North Island from inland Taranaki, Wanganui, northern Manawatu and Hawkes Bay northwards, with activity in southwestern areas more likely during the afternoon. The risk increases to moderate for Northland, Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Taupo, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay. Any thunderstorms that occur are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter. Although the thunderstorm activity should ease in most places this evening, around East Cape the moderate risk continues until midnight.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 09:35
by spwill
There was some thunderstorm activity overnight west and east of Auckland over the warmer sea.
Coromandel/BOP might be the area for a storm this afternoon
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 12:37
by Tornado Tim
Nice crisp cumulus congestus going up around Raglan, looking good
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 13:01
by shovelopikis
Massive clouds here over pureroas , getting odd showers from them,awesome bases, going for drive later this arvo over waikato, will be interesting.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 13:32
by spwill
Pea size hail here at Pokeno, lightning/thunder also.
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 13:56
by cbm
Over 6C difference between Ruakura and Ham Airport stations ATM. 17.1 verses 10.9
Re:
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 14:00
by Tornado Tim
cbm wrote:Over 6C difference between Ruakura and Ham Airport stations ATM. 17.1 verses 10.9
Yea the remaints of a shower passing by, my station is half way between Ruakura and Hamilton AP in terms of location and temp. 14.9.
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 14:23
by cbm
Does cooler air come down in the shower as a downdraft or does the rain cool the surface air? It certainly seems to be a strong effect this time of year.
Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 14:33
by jamie
Some decent towers going up to my North, East and south east
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 14:42
by Manukau heads obs
report of lots of hail just north of taupo .could see that cb from here 1 pmish
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 14:51
by Razor
From the NZ Herald website...sleety showers? Oh my word
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11520218
While the ground temperature at the city's airport is a relatively mild 14C, the clouds hanging over the region are packing some hail, MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray said.
"It's a case of 'do they get to the ground before they melt?'"
Early this afternoon hail stones have been reported in the city.
Ms Murray said the day would bring "sleety showers" and there was a moderate risk of thunder storms from a trough moving over Auckland.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 15:17
by shovelopikis
Pea size hail 5km west taupo, been covering the roads for a good 10mins so far.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 15:48
by Manukau heads obs
also a report of hail snells beach
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 17:21
by shovelopikis
South waikato ones have been very slow moving...constant loud bangs here with odd flashes, more hail around tokoroa
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 17:28
by spwill
Some hail in Mt Eden mid afternoon. Some nice cloud build ups around.
The thunderstorm activity today has been isolated.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 17:43
by NZstorm
A brief shower in Freemans Bay. A lack of instability over Auckland today.
Re: Possible Storms Upper North Island - 28th Sep
Posted: Mon 28/09/2015 18:37
by spwill
Photo of a cumulus line near the Bombay hills ( produced a brief thunderstorm with pea size hail) and cumulus over east Auckland