General October Weather

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 29/09/2015 19:16

....well , it looks like that Thursday will start the El Niño summer.
October the 1st also marks the start of the official NZThS Thunderstorm Season, which with this current El Nino, should bring in many thunderstorms with cold southerly changes through Canterbury, not really interested in the rest of the country..
NW winds, dying with the odd NE against the southerly could make it interesting with upper air dynamics producing thunderstorms with some interesting hail.
....anyway, the westerlys seem to make an impact from October the 1st.
See what happens from then on?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 29/09/2015 21:10

East Otago gets the October 1 thunderstorm.

The early start to summer for Auckland coming to an end. October never is a good month for Auckland weather.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 30/09/2015 10:11

Certainly going to be extremely windy overnight Sunday for inland parts of Canterbury - EC going for AVERAGE wind speeds of 65kmh for West Melton!

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 30/09/2015 12:20

NZstorm wrote:East Otago gets the October 1 thunderstorm.

The early start to summer for Auckland coming to an end. October never is a good month for Auckland weather.

East Otago up the coast of south Canterbury to about Timaru I think. Pity it isn't the weekend or I would head down for the drive.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 30/09/2015 12:54

Looks like a pool of very warm air developing over Australia will get dragged across the Tasman next week on the westerlies, some warm temperatures likely especially for eastern areas of NZ.
Below average temperatures may return later next week.

Hopefully a thundery October on the way

, El Nino tends to be better for storms over NZ.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 30/09/2015 15:25

Can't say I've ever noticed the Metservice use such strong terms in respect to a potential wind event 3 days out before, if the models stay the same we could be looking at 150-160kmh gusts for the Canterbury plains:

This is likely to be a significant weather event of the country, especially with respect to gales in exposed eastern parts of the South Island, and lower North Island. People are advised to keep up to date with the latest SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINS

Manukau heads obs · Wed 30/09/2015 17:14

like early summer here today

18C max
lots of sunshine

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 01/10/2015 07:41

Jet stream pattern for next week showing a very strong jet through the south Tasman Sea. The subtropical jet has disappeared over Australia signifying a warm up in the mid latitude atmosphere. Warmer temps for NZ but a lot of wind for the south of the country.

300mb jet

Manukau heads obs · Thu 01/10/2015 08:28

you can see how fast its currently flowing to the SW of Aus on that new 10 min sat seq
satview.bom.gov.au

RichyDunedin · Unread post by **RichyDunedin** » Thu 01/10/2015 15:02

Rain radar showing decent thunderstorms around Oamaru and Timaru currently. Hopefully something kicks off here after work.

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Thu 01/10/2015 16:54

RichyDunedin wrote:Rain radar showing decent thunderstorms around Oamaru and Timaru currently. Hopefully something kicks off here after work.

Thunderstorm approaching Dunedin from the west now (4:50pm).

RichyDunedin · Unread post by **RichyDunedin** » Thu 01/10/2015 17:17

Thunderstorm went straight over just before and dropped the temperature by 6 degrees. Has all but died now it seems. Saw some nice lightning but no CGs.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 02/10/2015 08:14

Wet morning in Auckland. Looks like a slow moving front onto Waikato.

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Fri 02/10/2015 12:24

I see the aviation weather for Auckland gives 40% probability of thunderstorms between 1pm and midnight local. Considering on Tuesday when in Brisbane the TAF gave 30% probability of thunderstorms and we subsequently got the stuffing kicked out of us by what looked like a supercell (pic on the Australian Storm Season 2015/15 thread) I wonder what our chances are today?

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/10/2015 12:37

there has been some good convective shower lines going though at times this morning
the main font looks to be sharpening up

re Brisbane: you cant really compare: big land mass, warm ocean, southerly buster type setup...

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Fri 02/10/2015 12:47

"re Brisbane: you cant really compare: big land mass, warm ocean, southerly buster type setup..."

Yep, apparently they do it properly over there. Was my first experience of such a beast, loved every minute

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/10/2015 13:58

NZ is not a good place for thunderstorms unfortunately
Brisbane/ Australia have heat/humidity combinations (big instability numbers) that we don't get in NZ.
30C/20C dewpoint is normal Summer weather in Brisbane.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 02/10/2015 16:02

the front approaching is currently lightning active

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 02/10/2015 17:45

Reached 20.3 degrees here today, first day of Spring to reach 20

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/10/2015 18:07

Ak skies have been unstable looking today but there is a lack of convergence, incoming front for later this evening has been producing thunderstorms.

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Fri 02/10/2015 19:05

I see the latest TAF on Auckland has lost the Prob 40 and added hail to the thunderstorms between 8 and 11pm local. Might have to stay up a little late ☺

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/10/2015 19:59

Northland are catching the storms

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/10/2015 20:19

We have torrential rain here. Absolutely thumping down

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 02/10/2015 20:25

10mm in the last 15 mins here

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 02/10/2015 20:36

jamie wrote:We have torrential rain here. Absolutely thumping down

Looks torrential on the rugby Waikato v Counties that's for sure

NZ Weather Forum