General October Weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/10/2015 07:41

Would be interested to know what the record low monthly rainfall is for Auckland in October. This is certainly a month where we could get a near record dry!

Some moisture convergence showing up over north Otago with lapse rates 6.8C. So convective precip likely there.

I have been looking at NIWA daily UV. For the locations they give, Whakapapa on Mt Ruapehu has the highest UV in the country and Invercargill the lowest.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 12/10/2015 09:39

Glorious run of sunny warm weather. Us townies love it but I am fearful for our rural friends

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 12/10/2015 09:49

GFS have beefed up the amount of rain for tuesday over Canterbury

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 12/10/2015 10:24

Looks like thunder /hail set up in north otago and up Canterbury coast. South of Christchurch.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 12/10/2015 10:35

NZstorm wrote:Would be interested to know what the record low monthly rainfall is for Auckland in October. This is certainly a month where we could get a near record dry!

The weather station that used to run at Owairaka recorded 14mm in Oct 1967. Haven't checked for Akl Airport.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 12/10/2015 12:58

It's actually a pretty nice day today, much sunnier than the weekend. Warm 19C too

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 12/10/2015 15:31

03Stormchaser wrote:GFS have beefed up the amount of rain for tuesday over Canterbury

Now looking like bugger all, as usual

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 12/10/2015 17:37

Now, I'm sadly starting to lack enthusiasm in my thunderstorm outlook as I stated in the first item on this topic.
Things looking to dry-out in the months ahead, so thunderstorm possibilities looking unfavourable at the moment.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 12/10/2015 17:59

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now, I'm sadly starting to lack enthusiasm in my thunderstorm outlook as I stated in the first item on this topic.
Things looking to dry-out in the months ahead, so thunderstorm possibilities looking unfavourable at the moment.

Its already drying out badly around here, and yes its looking like a very poor thunderstorm spring

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/10/2015 19:14

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now, I'm sadly starting to lack enthusiasm in my thunderstorm outlook as I stated in the first item on this topic.
Things looking to dry-out in the months ahead, so thunderstorm possibilities looking unfavourable at the moment.

Prime season for thunderstorms in the east of the South Island is after mid November John!

A lack of a 500mb short wave trough would have been the biggest problem for a storm developing in Canterbury today. There is a trough coming in overnight but too late!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 12/10/2015 21:25

NZstorm wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now, I'm sadly starting to lack enthusiasm in my thunderstorm outlook as I stated in the first item on this topic.
Things looking to dry-out in the months ahead, so thunderstorm possibilities looking unfavourable at the moment.

Prime season for thunderstorms in the east of the South Island is after mid November John!

A lack of a 500mb short wave trough would have been the biggest problem for a storm developing in Canterbury today. There is a trough coming in overnight but too late!

Looking ahaead it appears in my books there may well be a chance sunday afternoon as a cold upper trough comes up from the south sunday!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 12/10/2015 21:34

NZstorm wrote:
Prime season for thunderstorms in the east of the South Island is after mid November John!

Immmm,

we'll have to wait and see

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/10/2015 07:43

TT chart for that front tonight. Isolated lightning possible. Some reasonable rain anyway.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/10/2015 08:03

Cool upper air/14C dewpoints tonight so the chance of a heavy shower for some locations to boost rainfall with the front.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 13/10/2015 09:26

Front has disintegrated here. A few light spits, nothing more

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 13/10/2015 11:24

Razor wrote:Front has disintegrated here. A few light spits, nothing more

Your lucky, not even a few spits here

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 13/10/2015 11:50

Richard wrote:
Razor wrote:Front has disintegrated here. A few light spits, nothing more
Your lucky, not even a few spits here

I'm actually really worried for you guys up north Richard over the next 4-5 months, things aren't great for the farmers around your area and the short and long term forecasts are grim to say the least when it comes to rainfall. I really hope I'm wrong though!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 13/10/2015 13:57

Bradley wrote:
I'm actually really worried for you guys up north Richard over the next 4-5 months, things aren't great for the farmers around your area and the short and long term forecasts are grim to say the least when it comes to rainfall. I really hope I'm wrong though!

Yes its looking bad alright,

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Tue 13/10/2015 18:13

got lots of rain here today a huge 0.2mm... getting a bit dry here also

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 13/10/2015 18:18

Some interesting but non-fruitful cloud forms at the moment, just to the SW and above , as the NE tries to kick in.
Fibratus sort of castellatus forms, (sorry I don't use the word castellanus, as some people may find that word offensive)

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 13/10/2015 18:49

Just had a few isolated showers move through here John, does have a slight unstable feel. But a bit late in the day and unstable air mass is fairly low down anyway. Still cool though.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 13/10/2015 21:17

yeah certainly some sort of instability around from mid afternoon, and convergence this evening.
Had a shower just before in rolleston but nothing heavy.
Really keeping an eye on sunday for storm chances, but the models have the 500mb temp pushing away offshore again, last night it had it coming right over the south island

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 14/10/2015 06:51

We only had a few spits of rain in the morning then on evening.
18th day with no recordable rain fall. Looking ahead, Sunday holds the best bet for some rain.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 14/10/2015 06:53

Some heavy rain overnight for the Waikato, 10-40mm. But just 4.5mm here.

Looks like the anticyclonic southwesters/low cloud set to return to Auckland in the coming days. No gales though!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 14/10/2015 07:51

Yea 23mm here. Very nice. The ground was drying out very fast. I now have soil moisture and temp on the station and it was amazing to watch the moisture drop away the last week

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