General October Weather

[melja]

NW came up around 3pm as well down Lake Benmore but still caught 5 fish and lake not to rough.

[NZstorm]

Thunderstorms/small hail look probable for the inland North Island tomorrow afternoon! Both 12Z Ukmet and GFS agree on the shortwave crossing the North Island in the afternoon hours, timed with peak heating.

CAPE chart for 4pm

[shovelopikis]

Thunderstorms/small hail look probable for the inland North Island tomorrow afternoon! Both 12Z Ukmet and GFS agree on the shortwave crossing the North Island in the afternoon hours, timed with peak heating.

CAPE chart for 4pm

And I'll be smack bang in the middle...I'm not a chased, but this may warrant a drive around since its my days off and I'll be fishing

[NZstorm]

Potential for some decent hail in the Bay of Plenty tomorrow. Best moisture convergence looks to be there and upper level lapse rates 7.5C.

[Tornado Tim]

Potential for some decent hail in the Bay of Plenty tomorrow. Best moisture convergence looks to be there and upper level lapse rates 7.5C.

Yea cold pool and shortwave quite well defined, Eastern Waikato and BOP best bet, mainly due to a WSW to SW flow.

Screen Shot 2015-10-25 at 9.57.46 PM.png

I don't like SW, WSW flows esp when it comes to convection, mixing out and cooler temps. Anyway East seems best.....

In the afternoon and evening, a pool of cold air aloft is expected to move east across the upper North Island. These cold temperatures in conjunction with daytime heating, surface wind convergence and a slow moving trough is expected to trigger widespread shower activity over the central and upper North Island.For southern Coromandel Peninsula,inland parts of Bay of Plenty and Rotorua,eastern Waikato, Taupo, and the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, there is a high risk of thunderstorms, with heavy rain rates of 10 to 25mm/hr and hail of 10 to 20mm diameter. This is surrounded by an area of lower risk from eastern parts of Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula down to Taumarunui and across to northern Wairarapa eastwards.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected over New Zealand Monday afternoon and evening.

[treetop]

Some good NE moisture coming in to BOP this morning which will help things along.

[spwill]

Good to see a more changeable weather pattern, many areas will get some rain this week. Good system showing up later in the week, thursday.

I will keep an eye on eastern Waikato for a possible chase this afternoon

[03Stormchaser]

I see snow foretasted for later today in Queenstown

[Rogue]

Driving from Tauranga to Wellington today, trying to delay the departure as long as I can but the missus has picked up on what I'm planning haha. Looking primed here though

[Tornado Tim]

Stuff just east of Tauranga and central Plateau atm, just a little to weak at this stage. Himawari 10 min Updates - absolutely awesome

[Tornado Tim]

A few weak IC strikes being picked up BOP way over the last hour, will be an interesting afternoon in the BOP thats for sure

[spwill]

Numerous thunderstorms in the region east of Taupo but no storms north of there, Hawkes Bay/ Gisborne region catching some rain/ storms moving off the High country

[cbm]

View of one of the storms today from Turoa ski field.

IMG_20151026_153918-PANO-001.jpg

[Rogue]

The storms seemed to go off just as we passed them, all the way down from Rotorua past the desert road. Looking at the radar history I was about half an hour in front of them :/. Lots of crackles on the AM radio but didn't manage to see any lightning.

Very surprised there wasn't anything decent north of Rotorua

[spwill]

Nice photo cbm

I think there was a lack of convergence north of Rotorua for storms to develop.

[NZstorm]

Excellent photos from the Volcanic Plateau.

I think there was a lack of convergence north of Rotorua for storms to develop.

The atmosphere north of Taupo had capping issues as well.

[Orion]

I can hear rain on the roof at present - very pleasant sound.

[Richard]

WOW, it think i can remember that sound, maybe its coming this way....

[Orion]

Hope so, Richard. It eased off for a while but is rattling down again just now.

[Richard]

Just starting to rain now

[trickytiger]

was nice waking up to some decent rain 9.8mm so far

[Razor]

Had a great weekend in Ross on the west coast, just sensational weather

Nothing but a light shower or two here in Christchurch. Its getting alarmingly dry across the hinterland here towards Porters pass, much of the road verges have browned off already, no doubt the paddocks are going the same way

[Bradley]

Something big looks to be brewing rainfall wise for Mid Canterbury south for next Tuesday, fingers crossed the models don't downgrade as per usual lately over the next week!

[Richard]

Managed to pick up 6.5mm yesterday and today the MS have a low risk of TS, so fingers crossed for more.

[Tornado Tim]

Another low pressure system and assoc upper level cold pool will be moving in tomorrow, affecting a good chunk of Northland.
Convection most probable around the Low center where the coldest upper temps are forecast and upper level winds are more weak.

Temps at 500mb down to -23°C, combined with a SFC temp of 18°C+ pre front with a DP of 14-16°C.
Cold front slowly sweeping in late afternoon early PM with a cold southerly change, should give sufficient buoyancy for Storms develop on the front.

Since mid level winds are forecast to be lack-luster, I think they will carry a more pulsy type characteristic.

Western Northland Looks best, however there is a risk of showers developing pre the front that could limit SFC temps and reduce temp differentiation.