General October Weather

[Razor]

We had a heavy shower last night around 11:30pm; 4.5mm in half an hour. But that was the extent of it

[03Stormchaser]

We only had a few spits of rain in the morning then on evening.
18th day with no recordable rain fall. Looking ahead, Sunday holds the best bet for some rain.

I lied. Got 3mm over night. Hadn't opened the curtains when I posted above

[Storm Struck]

From memory the late 90s to early 2000s when it was el nino, thunderstorms didnt really get into gear until late October then November and December were very fruitful months.
So this one should follow simular , there does look to be a few chances sneaking in next week maybe Monday evening for a start.

[NZstorm]

December and January are the most thunder prone months for most of NZ in any year. The exception is west of the North Island where the typical season for thunder is winter (May to Sept).

In the El Nino summer of 1998, there was some thunder activity in the Auckland region in Feb/Mar. But that was a hot humid season. It's a lottery to what this summer will be like for Auckland (whether it will be a warm or cool summer).

[TonyT]

The MJO is about to make a move towards moderately strong phases 1 and 2, so we may see a fairly consistent pattern for the next month or so. Both phases favour southwest airflow. Phase 1 favours more low pressure dominated southwesterlies, and that seems likely to hang around from this weekend through about the end of the month. Phase 2 favours more anticyclonic southwest flow, and that looks likely to be dominant for the first two weeks of November.

[RWood]

I'd better keep watering the garden - last 17 days here almost rainless and sunny, not expecting much in the next 2 weeks either.

[03Stormchaser]

This was posted by MS on thursday

Very little rain relief for dry eastern areas

The lack of rain in eastern areas so far this October is set to continue this weekend. Many eastern places are tracking well below their average rainfall for October, due to the high frequency of westerlies over New Zealand in the last two weeks. "Christchurch averages about 50mm of rain for October and so far they have only received 0.4mm. The eastern North Island has also been dry with less than 5mm recorded in Gisborne and Napier, " said Metservice Meteorologist Stephen Glassey.

http://about.metservice.com/homepagerss/

[melja]

Very strong westerly winds for a time over night, max gust 97kph on my station and a very sustained wind not gusty. Warm to with 20C all night.

[Richard]

Was quite gusty here and yes warm alright.

[NZstorm]

Looks like Auckland is stuck in a cloudy pattern for the next 7 days although cloud could break up for Sunday. Dry at least.
Hoping for a pattern change for November although El Nino suggests more SW conditions.

[Andy]

10mm of welcome rain here this morning!

[Captain Salty]

currently 16% humidity

[melja]

Great weekend down in the MacKenzie, very persistent westerly so no boating but nice and fine.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nice day here but bloody awful westerly wind constantly blowing.

[treetop]

This weather pattern really setting in for the long haul now. Feb/March ? Strong persistant ridging in the mid/upper Tasman will kill any front delivering moisture in the east and lows from the North. Am a fruit grower so its going to be a real bu#$@%*##*mer me thinks.Yachties in Auckland will not be short of wind this summer though.

[Razor]

Reports of large hail in the eastern suburbs of Christchurch just now. Must have been a very isolated flick of the band that went out mostly over the Peninsula

EDIT:Pic lifted from facebook, looks like it went through Lyttelton, Mt Pleasant and Southshore

[Auroa]

Lasted around 5 minutes where I was on Dyers Road near the Dog Shelter. Could see a dark mass of clouds coming, but expected rain not massive hail!
A friend was at the beach further North (Waimairi) where she said it lasted around 15 minutes flooding the area (inches thick with the hail). She said it was very frightening (she had no shelter!) The hail was massive (like in the photo above) some around 1.2cm. My friend also saw a flash out at sea and heard one clap of thunder roll through.
Very impressive though very quick (where we were!)

[Razor]

Some reasonable instability to the NW inland areas showing now (from Central ChCh), and a keen easterly breeze to feed it. I expect someone will get a rumble or two before the day is done, more likely inland but who knows, the ingredients are there for the rest of us

[tich]

Reports of large hail in the eastern suburbs of Christchurch just now. Must have been a very isolated flick of the band that went out mostly over the Peninsula

EDIT:Pic lifted from facebook, looks like it went through Lyttelton, Mt Pleasant and Southshore

Going to Akaroa this morning, I noticed the roads were wet around the Motukarara/Kaituna area, where the storm must've gone through earlier

[mikestormchaser]

Hmm I saw this to this morning. Radar showed heavy precipitation from this cell. I would of said a moderate risk for the coast today. Interestingly nothing els has happened though.. I have a question about today..why is it we haven't had a decent Storm in Canterbury/chch this afternoon when it's been a surface NE all day.. upper air is at around -27 and there is showers/ a southerly change expected? Yet since this mornings little cell brushing banks peninsula, there hasn't been anything ominous to suggest a storm set up?? A number of ingredients have been there? Answers to learn from would be great. Cheers

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, Mikey, I was thinking the same thing too.
Seems like some sort of 'atmospheric mishap' or "What's going on here" ?
Even MetService seems to be confused saying SW when it was NE and now saying NE when it is southerly?
Regarding this morning, I noticed these cold air clouds with intersecting forms moving north from around the south end of BP, with some tops looking like upside mammoths, sorry I mean mammatus, bloody spell-check

[mikestormchaser]

Yes, Mikey, I was thinking the same thing too.
Seems like some sort of 'atmospheric mishap' or "What's going on here" ?
Even MetService seems to be confused saying SW when it was NE and now saying NE when it is southerly?

I'm picking a lack of moisture? ? Although there was a wee pool of moisture about coastal chch and BP around 1-2pm..

[Richard]

Yet another day of strong NW winds here.

I know a bloke from Vacaville in California, yesterday they had the first thunder&lightning in 11 years, now thats a long time.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm picking a lack of moisture? ? Although there was a wee pool of moisture about coastal chch and BP around 1-2pm..

Lots of erratic glaciation going on too, but too dry or as Bob Crowder would say "Lack of pregnancy"

[mikestormchaser]

I'm picking a lack of moisture? ? Although there was a wee pool of moisture about coastal chch and BP around 1-2pm..

Lots of erratic glaciation going on too, but too dry or as Bob Crowder would say "Lack of pregnancy"

Yeah glaciation definately a sign of a lack of moisture/ grunt in the atmostphere