Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Richard
Posts: 8612
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury

Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Richard »

A high risk of damaging wind for Sunday, as yet not saying max gust speeds are.

From the Met service
A very strong northwest flow is likely across the South Island during Sunday, with high confidence of severe northwest gales for exposed parts of Southland, Otago, Canterbury and Marlborough. These gales may be damaging in some inland places, with the potential to damage structures, power networks, and make outdoor activities and driving hazardous. Westerly gales spread to the lower and eastern North Island on Sunday and early Monday, where there is low to moderate confidence of severe gales as depicted on the chart.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

They are saying 160kmh within the Metrsvice potentially
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I would usually use the Beaufort scale: Severe Gale: 74.6–88.1km/hr but I wouldn't put it past the meaning of Damaging Severe Gale could mean 90km/hr+
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by NZstorm »

Gfs indicating peak gusts of 80knots (150km/h) Southland to Canterbury.

Also spill over thunderstorms for inland Otago.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18895
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

We don't want anymore damaging winds here, got enough firewood from the Big blow of September 2013.
...probably wont be that windy anyway.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton

Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Quite a sting in Sub Antarctic Jet Forecast on Tuesday AM next week, Forecast of 130 to 140 knots at 300 Hpa according to NCEP, GFS. EC has a similar timing with a similar forecast around that time.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

[quote="NZstorm"]Gfs indicating peak gusts of 80knots (150km/h) Southland to Canterbury.

Yes though it looks in the latest model run with EC peak gusts have downgraded a little, here's hoping it keeps going that way!
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

Will be in the McKenzie country this weekend so will see how windy it is.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6324
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Nev »

Mod Note: Just a reminder that personal attacks won't be tolerated here!
So any further similar comments will simply be deleted.
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

Unfortunately it looks like this could be quite a big wind event for eastern areas of the South Island, hopefully a couple of the farmers have learnt from the big blow in September 2013 and move their irrigators to face the correct direction this time.

Here's the latest from the Metservice:

AREA/S AFFECTED
Canterbury
FORECAST
Severe northwest gales gusting 160 km/h or possibly more in exposed places, especially the High Country, from early Sunday afternoon until Sunday night.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

Not up waiau , there all side on at this stage.
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

I'd say I saw at least 4 big irrigators blown down in that September event around the Darfield, Coalgate area, hopefully they all plan to move them tomorrow at the latest, even if it all comes to nothing it will better to be safe then sorry...
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4987
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I wonder if this NW belt airstream will change to a more SW or southerly belt in a few weeks time, would certainly be more favourable for eastern SI storms.
If its more westerly then this El Nino might not produce many thunder days at all especially in Canterbury.
Or am I just far too impatient :-k :mrgreen:
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

From the Hurunui District Council warning centre:

Winds are forecast to be of a similar strength to the September 2013 wind storm which caused widespread damage throughout Mid and North Canterbury. Winds of this strength could damage trees, bring down powerlines and lift roofs, as well as make travel hazardous.
Karliosis
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue 13/11/2012 21:15
Location: Somerfield, Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Karliosis »

It will be interesting to see to what extent the pressure drops in Canterbury on Sunday. GFS (06z Friday) shows about a 15hPa drop between 00z and 06z Sunday, but sometimes with these intense fohn systems the pressure locally drops lower than models estimate. I might use my Kestrel to log the pressure on Sunday and post the resulting graph here if it turns out interesting :)
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by NZstorm »

I don't think it will be as strong as the 2013 event for Canterbury. But that doesn't mean it won't be severe!

Elevated lightning may come off the Alps into regions like MacKenzie.
Also isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Southland coast for wind gusts 70knots.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

Might take our caravan awning down just to be sure when we go home Sunday.
Calm and cold -4 here.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

latest warnings have backed it off slightly, 150kmh gusts instead of 160kmh gusts
still I hope farmers with irrigators are storing them on an angle to catch the least amount of wind and away from the river beds
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

It does say "or more" tho in the warning.
Driving down to Twizel I would say most in south Canterbury are away from the Nw but it was a different story yesterday in north Canterbury where I would say 80% were side on.
Last edited by melja on Sat 03/10/2015 10:08, edited 1 time in total.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, but it did before, when the number was 160
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

Oh well 160-150 much the same damage I would have thought
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

actually wind strength is a square function due to F=MA2
and so at that speed, 10 kmh increase in windspeed is alot more damaging that just that 10kmh speed
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton

Unread post by melja »

Mmmm OK lol
Bradley
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Bradley »

Still says 160kmh for Canterbury

AREA/S AFFECTED
Canterbury
FORECAST
Severe northwest gales gusting 160 km/h or possibly more in exposed places and especially the High Country, from around midday Sunday until Sunday night.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island

Re: Damaging winds 4/10/2015

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yeah, i see that now...maybe that should have been mentioned in the summary at the start
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]