A high risk of damaging wind for Sunday, as yet not saying max gust speeds are.
From the Met service
A very strong northwest flow is likely across the South Island during Sunday, with high confidence of severe northwest gales for exposed parts of Southland, Otago, Canterbury and Marlborough. These gales may be damaging in some inland places, with the potential to damage structures, power networks, and make outdoor activities and driving hazardous. Westerly gales spread to the lower and eastern North Island on Sunday and early Monday, where there is low to moderate confidence of severe gales as depicted on the chart.
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Quite a sting in Sub Antarctic Jet Forecast on Tuesday AM next week, Forecast of 130 to 140 knots at 300 Hpa according to NCEP, GFS. EC has a similar timing with a similar forecast around that time.
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Unfortunately it looks like this could be quite a big wind event for eastern areas of the South Island, hopefully a couple of the farmers have learnt from the big blow in September 2013 and move their irrigators to face the correct direction this time.
Here's the latest from the Metservice:
AREA/S AFFECTED
Canterbury
FORECAST
Severe northwest gales gusting 160 km/h or possibly more in exposed places, especially the High Country, from early Sunday afternoon until Sunday night.
I'd say I saw at least 4 big irrigators blown down in that September event around the Darfield, Coalgate area, hopefully they all plan to move them tomorrow at the latest, even if it all comes to nothing it will better to be safe then sorry...
I wonder if this NW belt airstream will change to a more SW or southerly belt in a few weeks time, would certainly be more favourable for eastern SI storms.
If its more westerly then this El Nino might not produce many thunder days at all especially in Canterbury.
Or am I just far too impatient
Winds are forecast to be of a similar strength to the September 2013 wind storm which caused widespread damage throughout Mid and North Canterbury. Winds of this strength could damage trees, bring down powerlines and lift roofs, as well as make travel hazardous.
It will be interesting to see to what extent the pressure drops in Canterbury on Sunday. GFS (06z Friday) shows about a 15hPa drop between 00z and 06z Sunday, but sometimes with these intense fohn systems the pressure locally drops lower than models estimate. I might use my Kestrel to log the pressure on Sunday and post the resulting graph here if it turns out interesting
I don't think it will be as strong as the 2013 event for Canterbury. But that doesn't mean it won't be severe!
Elevated lightning may come off the Alps into regions like MacKenzie.
Also isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Southland coast for wind gusts 70knots.
latest warnings have backed it off slightly, 150kmh gusts instead of 160kmh gusts
still I hope farmers with irrigators are storing them on an angle to catch the least amount of wind and away from the river beds
It does say "or more" tho in the warning.
Driving down to Twizel I would say most in south Canterbury are away from the Nw but it was a different story yesterday in north Canterbury where I would say 80% were side on.
Last edited by melja on Sat 03/10/2015 10:08, edited 1 time in total.
actually wind strength is a square function due to F=MA2
and so at that speed, 10 kmh increase in windspeed is alot more damaging that just that 10kmh speed
AREA/S AFFECTED
Canterbury
FORECAST
Severe northwest gales gusting 160 km/h or possibly more in exposed places and especially the High Country, from around midday Sunday until Sunday night.
