General November Weather

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 14/11/2015 14:47

Tornado Tim wrote:Quite cool in Matangi this morning down to 1.2, lower than the airport by 2 degrees. Jamie what did you get?

1.5 at mine thismorning. No damage to verge garden so far with this run of cold mornings.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 14/11/2015 16:04

6C here this morning but a lovely day and 21C this afternoon. It's good to see some decent rain in the forecast.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sat 14/11/2015 20:46

Nev wrote:Report of a small tornado around 6pm on Thursday near the Silverdale off-ramp by Whangaparaoa…

'Mini-tornado touches down in North Auckland' - Rodney Times (Stuff)

Ak radar - Nov 12, 6pm.png

My Silverdale Spy, west of that motorway off-ramp, reports a fall of pine-needles and other leaf-debris dropping from the sky around that time on Thursday evening, and that there was a stroke of lightning and peal of thunder; also a fall of hail at Stanmore Bay around the same time.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 15/11/2015 08:27

The tornado report is interesting as there was some shear on the day.

Looking like some good rainfall tomorrow over the upper North Island and as tunster suggests, divergence aloft from the jet stream will be a positive factor for rain making.

As for thunder chances this week, ECMWF showing an upper level cold system over NZ next weekend.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 15/11/2015 09:11

November weather has been lovely for Auckland so far, looks like a more disturbed pattern for the next 10days.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 15/11/2015 21:10

Yes some cold upper trough crossing next Sunday with reasonable instability. Total totals have it maxed out over Canterbury Sunday! !

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 15/11/2015 22:04

Yes,Mikey, might get some interesting weather @ last

...supposed to be the strongest El Niño, for a while with the media going overboard on saying how severe it is going to be, but the weather is so bloody useless at the moment

...
..well so far. It's not very interesting

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 16/11/2015 11:22

Bloody good rain. Much needed. Nice and steady and looking set in for a few hours.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 16/11/2015 18:08

Great to get 21mm of steady rain today!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 17/11/2015 14:31

Yet another weak change with most or all of the moisture sucked out of proceedings today. Its like we are stuck in a loop.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 17/11/2015 16:55

yes and now its looking like we are going into a prolonged westerly quarter wind pattern in a few days

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 17/11/2015 20:03

Razor wrote:Yet another weak change with most or all of the moisture sucked out of proceedings today. Its like we are stuck in a loop.

The SOI has been rising steadily over the last 3-4 weeks, and that trend always dampens down the westerlies, so we haven't had the same strongly ridge/trough westerly pattern we saw in late September and early October.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 17/11/2015 20:03

Richard wrote:yes and now its looking like we are going into a prolonged westerly quarter wind pattern in a few days

The SOI is expected to drop back more negative over the next couple of weeks, so the westerlies will return.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 18/11/2015 04:34

Only 3 days so far this month have exceed 20C here and 7 mornings have dipped below 5C. Bloody horrible.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Wed 18/11/2015 07:14

Looks a little more NW flow coming now so temps will rise. Getting useful rain every few days now as well so farmers happier this end of the country..

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 18/11/2015 07:42

Brief shower this morning that nearly wet the ground, 1mm grand total

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 18/11/2015 10:17

Fri to me looks like a chance of thunderstorms. Strong NW before the change tho and a slight lack of moisture may kill chances but timaru up coastal Canterbury looks like it may cop a storm, just to add quite a strong upper jet around 45 knots present on Fri to.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 18/11/2015 13:58

Two blokes from NIWA are down in my back paddock installing a AWS today.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 18/11/2015 14:01

mikestormchaser wrote:Fri to me looks like a chance of thunderstorms. Strong NW before the change tho and a slight lack of moisture may kill chances but timaru up coastal Canterbury looks like it may cop a storm, just to add quite a strong upper jet around 45 knots present on Fri to.

Going to be in Nelson that day,maybe a better chance there i hope.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 18/11/2015 14:39

Richard wrote:Two blokes from NIWA are down in my back paddock installing a AWS today.

Looks great Richard - probably a silly question but will the Metservice be putting the real time data for that station online once it's up and running or is purely just for NIWA's use?

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 18/11/2015 15:46

Lots of grass there Richard.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 18/11/2015 17:39

Bradley wrote:
Richard wrote:Two blokes from NIWA are down in my back paddock installing a AWS today.
Looks great Richard - probably a silly question but will the Metservice be putting the real time data for that station online once it's up and running or is purely just for NIWA's use?

I would think it would only be Niwa's data, surely

Now all set up, then Monday they pull the boxing out and hopefully be up and running same day.What appealed to Niwa was that the paddock has and never will be worked over. A comment the guys made was dry the soil was.

Twitch is a wonderful grass for handling drought conditions melja, ive only got super fine merino's on that block and they do so well onit too.

I wonder if there's a way that i can have the data show as my signature?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/11/2015 21:35

The longer range outlook ( current modelling ) shows generally higher pressure just east of NZ which should favour a period of average to above average temps for NZ.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 18/11/2015 22:39

mikestormchaser wrote:Fri to me looks like a chance of thunderstorms. Strong NW before the change tho and a slight lack of moisture may kill chances but timaru up coastal Canterbury looks like it may cop a storm, just to add quite a strong upper jet around 45 knots present on Fri to.

A powerful 500mb jet will ensure lightning in the Alps Friday but spill over activity also on the cards.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 18/11/2015 23:22

It does look very coastal for Friday afternoon now, but I would say Birdlings Flat would be an excellent spot to be going by the current models.
But beyond that into next week does look very dry and warm, maybe cracking first early 30,s come mid week which is not going to be good given how dry it is already.

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