General November Weather

[trickytiger]

Think the gains are gone already...

Those gains are definitely gone down here, going brown and the ground is hard and dusty...

[03Stormchaser]

Balmy 19C outside at the moment!

[Chris Raine]

Steady rain at Runanga . Been relatively dry for the month up to today with only 101mm recorded . Have had 23.4mm since 4pm today . Next event is on Friday so could be an interesting few days coming up

[spwill]

Northern NZ weather turns humid today, dewpoint 17 -19C. Eastern Northland looks the best chance for a late storm with late upper level cooling

[Razor]

26 degrees at 9am. Looks like we'll comfortably exceed the forecast maximum again

[David]

Latest thunderstorm outlook:

Valid to Midnight Wednesday 25 Nov 2015
Issued at 8:20am Wednesday 25 Nov 2015
A warm front moves slowly southwards over the North Island, bringing showery northwesterlies to northern and central regions. Afternoon heating and wind convergences bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Northland, Auckland,Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty including Rotorua this afternoon and evening, which may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 20mm/hr. A broader low risk covers surrounding areas of Waikato and eastern Bay of Plenty during this afternoon and evening, extending to Taumarunui, Waitomo and Gisborne later this evening as shown on the chart. No thunderstorms or significant convection is expected over the remainder of the country.

[Razor]

And there we go, just tipped over the top of 30 degrees for the first time this summer 8)

[Bradley]

This airmass is about 2C warmer then the Metservice predicted, they better bump tomorrow's forecast up accordingly as well

[David]

Certainly good moisture today, 22C with 18C dewpoint in Howick.

[Richard]

And there we go, just tipped over the top of 30 degrees for the first time this summer

Strong NW keeping it cooler here

[harleyb]

Check this out for a serious marine forecast (Metservice's forecast for Puysegur).

Issued by MetService at: 12:35pm Wednesday 25 Nov 2015
Valid to: Midnight Thursday 26 Nov 2015
Forecast

*** STORM WARNING IN FORCE ***
Northwest 45 knots but 25 knots north of West Cape, becoming 45 knots everywhere this evening. Rising to northerly 55 knots Thursday morning and to 80 knots Thursday afternoon. Changing westerly 25 knots late Thursday evening. Sea becoming very high for a time. Southwest swell, 4 metres, easing. Northwest swell, rising to 5 metres. Poor visibility in periods of rain, with some heavy and possibly thundery falls Thursday evening.

[spwill]

The weather has turned humid here, Greylynn showing 24C, dewpoint18C.
No sign of any showers so far today, cloud/ sunshine mix, light winds.

[melja]

And there we go, just tipped over the top of 30 degrees for the first time this summer

Thought we had a 30 in October.

Temp Range between 26C night and 30C day here in Niue Island 90% RH and water temp around 27C, just a magical place.

[einzack]

Wind turned NW from NE at 5:30pm this evening and temp has risen to a balmy 28.6°C since then. Wasn't too shabby with the NE'r however with hitting 28.1°C earlier in the day, but the temp had started dropping until the NW'r same along.
This short spell of warmer weather has been lovely after a pretty damn miserable first 3 weeks of November.

edit: note to self - change the title of the signature weather thingy.......

[Bradley]

Tony what do you put the huge difference in what the models are forecasting for tomorrow's rain down to? EC is going for 10-20mm for most of mid-Canterbury but GFS and ACCESS only have 1-2mm and it's been that way for a few days now. In your experience does EC usually forecast NE or NW rainfall pretty well?

[David]

Dewpoint up to 19C here today. Muggy as!

[Richard]

Tony what do you put the huge difference in what the models are forecasting for tomorrow's rain down to? EC is going for 10-20mm for most of mid-Canterbury but GFS and ACCESS only have 1-2mm and it's been that way for a few days now. In your experience does EC usually forecast NE or NW rainfall pretty well?

But that depends where is Mid Canterbury, cant see coastal areas getting much but if the high cloud is thick enough, maybe?, i cant remember arch cloud ever producing any more than 10mm

[Richard]

Dewpoint up to 19C here today. Muggy as!

Very much the opposite here,hoed weeds this morning that are now dried right out.Just on 25deg at the moment

[Razor]

And there we go, just tipped over the top of 30 degrees for the first time this summer

Thought we had a 30 in October.

Temp Range between 26C night and 30C day here in Niue Island 90% RH and water temp around 27C, just a magical place.

29 was the highest we got in our patch in the warm early October spell.

Have hit 30 again this morning. Was out running Port Hills earlier, its super dry, and very flammable looking up there. Its more like January/ Feb conditions already. Hope people are sensible when that wind pops up later.

[spwill]

The longer range pattern shows a trend for higher pressure just east of NZ which will tend to favour warm flows onto NZ rather than cool.

No breeze here today adding to the humid feel, 24C dewpoint 19C.

[Richard]

Yes super dry alright, currently sitting at 23% and 26 deg.

[Orion]

A beautiful fleet of lenticular clouds coming across Mid-Canterbury with the nor'wester this afternoon.

[Razor]

No sign of the NW here in town, in fact the Nor'easter has pruned nearly 8 degrees of this mornings maximum of just over 30 degrees

[TonyT]

Tony what do you put the huge difference in what the models are forecasting for tomorrow's rain down to? EC is going for 10-20mm for most of mid-Canterbury but GFS and ACCESS only have 1-2mm and it's been that way for a few days now. In your experience does EC usually forecast NE or NW rainfall pretty well?

Probably easiest to answer this one late tomorrow, after its all over!

I dont really know the answers to those questions, I have never been impressed with any model's ability to forecast NW spill over rain accurately but this is maybe not so much of a spill over situation, but a weak trough on the front, so lets see what happens.

[Bradley]

Haha though EC definitely seems to think it's on to something though, it usually pulls out around 2-3 days before a rain event if it's not going to happen at all so for it to be still forecasting 10-20mm 1 day out will be very odd indeed if it doesn't end up happening!!