NZ Weather Forum

Well I think it's safe to say it could be a high risk for thunderstorms for canterbury tomorrow with a low risk of severe thunderstorms.models have been consistently showing this and with a nice pool of moisture with it! Just need a nice sunny start really and things should happen.

mikestormchaser wrote:Well I think it's safe to say it could be a high risk for thunderstorms for canterbury tomorrow with a low risk of severe thunderstorms.models have been consistently showing this and with a nice pool of moisture with it! Just need a nice sunny start really and things should happen.

Yes and Tuesday is looking good as well. For Sunday its just a matter of how far north the risk will be?

You should be in a good spot tomorrow Richard. Storms likely from east Otago to Malborough/Wellington.

Severe hail possible where good surface heating can occur given there will be favourable shear.

300mb jet pattern tomorrow 00Z

NZstorm wrote:You should be in a good spot tomorrow Richard. Storms likely from east Otago to Malborough/Wellington.

Severe hail possible where good surface heating can occur given there will be favourable shear.

300mb jet pattern tomorrow 00Z

What would your risk be for us on the canterbury plains nzstorm? Out of curiosity? I mean the risk of perhaps a supercell or two?

All looking good for Sunday, something finally to get excited about these are likely to be fast moving storms where Tuesday slow moving which are the types of storms that produce higher rainfall in this area.

mikestormchaser wrote:

NZstorm wrote:You should be in a good spot tomorrow Richard. Storms likely from east Otago to Malborough/Wellington.

Severe hail possible where good surface heating can occur given there will be favourable shear.

300mb jet pattern tomorrow 00Z

What would your risk be for us on the canterbury plains nzstorm? Out of curiosity? I mean the risk of perhaps a supercell or two?

Yes, the risk of a supercell if there is good surface heating. Modelling does show a lot of moisture aloft which may mean cloudy skies. Need to see how much sun eventuates on the day.

Just the 3 on my probability scale for tomorrow and for today for any 'overthrow' from the west
I'll review tomorrows one in the morning to see what conditions will be like.
It's a shame that we didn't have yesterday's ENE into the mix tomorrow, then it would of been all on.

MS have exceed my expectations with there forecast tomorrow. May have to stick to 'light' beers at a wedding tonight to be in shape to chase tomorrow!

I read TonyT forecast for tomorrow I don't mean to be picky but how do you forecast "light showers" tomorrow afternoon when there's clearly something more to it than that? Esp when Tony has put a "light easterly" tomorrow aswel. I don't understand.

Not sure if it will reach as far north as Wairarapa, but could be an excuse to go for a drive, been meaning to get out that way for a while!

mikestormchaser wrote:I read TonyT forecast for tomorrow I don't mean to be picky but how do you forecast "light showers" tomorrow afternoon when there's clearly something more to it than that? Esp when Tony has put a "light easterly" tomorrow aswel. I don't understand.

Maybe he is being cautious like me?
I have now, as well, a 3 probability for Wednesday of which he does forecast thunder

To me it looks like the NNW is booted out early am and replaced by a lighter southerly, around mid morning onshore sea breezes should converge across most of the plains ESE or straight easterly.
So its definitely a high risk as well for me, its a far better set up than Monday thats for sure.
Winds at varoius levels indicate heaps of good convergence and also varience in the strengths of those upper level winds as opposed to surface, which should mean plenty of not only decent hail size but also funnels.

The best set up in ages well worth chasing

mikestormchaser wrote:I read TonyT forecast for tomorrow I don't mean to be picky but how do you forecast "light showers" tomorrow afternoon when there's clearly something more to it than that? Esp when Tony has put a "light easterly" tomorrow aswel. I don't understand.

Simple, it doesnt look like a particularly strong setup to me tomorrow. Maybe for South Canterbury, but less so further north. For you guys sake I hope I'm wrong.

TonyT wrote:

mikestormchaser wrote:I read TonyT forecast for tomorrow I don't mean to be picky but how do you forecast "light showers" tomorrow afternoon when there's clearly something more to it than that? Esp when Tony has put a "light easterly" tomorrow aswel. I don't understand.

Simple, it doesnt look like a particularly strong setup to me tomorrow. Maybe for South Canterbury, but less so further north. For you guys sake I hope I'm wrong.

Fair enough!☺just interesting I just thought tomorrow would be at least a risk. And where's there's a chance I would of thought there may of been something like " showers possibly thundery with hail in afternoon " type forecast. I think it's relatively good set up esp if the Sun's out and we get a ENE sea breeze. I'd be amazed if nothing happend tomorrow in Canterbury.

Strong at times N winds most of the day here with 25.6deg.

What i dont understand in the MS Thunderstorm Outlook forecast for tomorrow when they say ''a southerly change over Wairarapa early afternoon' when i cant see in the models the change making its way past Nth Cant, i'm not holding much hope of anything happening north of Amberley, same as what was Monday afternoon.

I'm giving it a NZThSP ranking of 1, but like Tony, i hope i'm bloody wrong

South of the Rangitata will be my go to !

A little bit of lightning out west tonight, heading down to Hakataramea Valley tomorrow arvo to pick up a kitten hoping to catch some action on the way down or back.

Typical westerly conditions in Runanga currently heavy showers some thunder and small hail

TonyT wrote:

mikestormchaser wrote:I read TonyT forecast for tomorrow I don't mean to be picky but how do you forecast "light showers" tomorrow afternoon when there's clearly something more to it than that? Esp when Tony has put a "light easterly" tomorrow aswel. I don't understand.

Simple, it doesnt look like a particularly strong setup to me tomorrow. Maybe for South Canterbury, but less so further north. For you guys sake I hope I'm wrong.

Be interested to find out why you think this, I little more specific and technical explanation possible lol

It's not a typical setup, but some numbers in the models look very encouraging. TT over 60, upper air extremely cold combined well with daytime heating, LI below -2 in Mid Canterbury...

Light SW here. Sun out. Just beautiful conditions. I see metservice now have a moderate risk of SEVERE

MS going all out today hail 20-30mm in diamter thats golf ball or slightly bigger, not often you see that but i do agree with them.
There's really strong convergence at all levels today so should make for a very fruitful day, if you are a farmer or know of farmers warn them now to cover those crops.

Light southerly this morning with heating and lots of blue sky, Easterly should kick in around mid morning

Still a WNW wind here but has got lighter over the last few hours


This mornings updated thunderstorm outlook from the Met Service has the high risk expended a bit more inland in North Canterbury, so interesting day coming up

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 13 Dec 2015

Issued at: 8:31am Sunday 13 Dec 2015

Cooling upper temperatures over the South Island today should result in convective showers in the west and south of the Island and there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Buller to Fiordland this morning and also developing about Southland, Clutha and Dunedin from later this morning. In these thunderstorms there is likely to be localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 15mm per hour and hail of 5 to 15mm in diameter. The risk of thunderstorms in these areas is expected to continue into the afternoon

Over Canterbury and North Otago, daytime heating combined with the cold upper temperatures is likely to lead to shower development with a high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter, and possible wind gusts of 70 to 90km/hr. However there is now a moderate risk that one or two of these thunderstorms could be SEVERE during the afternoon producing damaging hail with diameters of 20 to 30mm. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH is now in place.

Outside the above areas, there is a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that affects coastal Wairarapa and other parts of the South Island, as indicated on the chart.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

Separate thread for today's event may be ? I think we'll be a bunch willing to post updates or discuss what's coming up next.

The high cloud has moved in to spoil the party.

Not much mid level cloud though just small areas, wind now ESE and early morning TCU going up.