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Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 10:28
by Tornado Tim
Looking good in terms of getting a storm this afternoon with that warm moist NW flow IE: good amount of potential latent heat.
Trop at 220hpa although there is few stable layers in the 2nd half of atmosphere in parcel accent looking at upper air modelling. Should be able to get to that height if DPs are high enough. Upper Air temps are mediocre (-14 to -15°C) so strong convergence and moisture is required to get anything firing.
Im am heading to Karipiro (the usual hotspot for storms in the Waikato) if cumulus is starting get good height well into the afternoon. Will take the Cambridge bypass that has just opened a week or so ago.
Ricky will be joining me, but feel free to join us if you want. Been a long time since we have had a decent chase
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 10:29
by Tornado Tim
Thunderstorm Outlook from Metservice in regards to Today:
Metservice wrote:A warm humid northwesterly flow will spread onto the northern and central North Island during today ahead of a weak front in the Tasman Sea. This combination of warm humid air, daytime heating and generally light winds is expected to lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The most likely areas for thunderstorms are central areas from Waikato and inland Bay of Plenty across to the ranges of inland Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, with a lower risk covering areas from Northland down to the South Taranaki and Wanganui hill country and Hawkes Bay as indicated on the chart (however the risk could be a little closer to moderate about southern Northland this afternoon and evening). Any thunderstorms that develop will produce loclaise heavy rain with intesities of 10 to 25mm/hr and hail.
In the South Island, daytime cloud buildups are also expected to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms about inland Marlborough, Nelson and Buller (including the Kaikoura ranges) and about the Southern Alps down to northern Fiordland. Any thunderstorms that develop in these areas could produce localised heavy rain with intensities of 10-20mm/hr and hail.
Finally, a slow moving convergence zone is expected to form over the the South Taranaki Bight this evening and may also produce a few thunderstorms from south Taranaki to coastal Manawatu and also over the water north of Tasman Bay,although this risk of thunderstorms is considered low at this stage.
No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand on Wednesday.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 10:59
by spwill
Can see a stable layer in the sky today, this could create cloudiness, hopefully not too much.
I see Greylynn is already 25C, dewpoint 18C.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 13:49
by NZstorm
Nothing happening around Auckland. Stable skies dominating with temp 24C.
I see the temps 26C in SE Waikato which is a positive sign. The dps look on the low side though at 13 to 16C.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 14:12
by shovelopikis
Clear skies around taupo, highcloud further north between us and mid waikato, looks like low cloud fourth on northwards, cool breeze and dew point sitting around 8c .
29c here at the moment.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 15:22
by NZstorm
Cb/heavy shower has developed out to NW of Auckland.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 15:27
by Tornado Tim
Partly to mostly cloudy with some cloud bases starting to get a little thicker, DP remaining stable around the mid 17°C mark.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 15:53
by David
NZstorm wrote:Cb/heavy shower has developed out to NW of Auckland.
Start of a convergence line maybe? I see there is a W wind at Manukau Heads, coming against the NE breeze...
It's quite a humid day, 25.6C here currently with 19C dewpoint.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 16:59
by NZstorm
Thunder observed over NW Auckland.
Re: Storms - Upper to central North Island - 30th December
Posted: Wed 30/12/2015 18:04
by spwill
I went out NW Auckland late afternoon, a couple of photos. Heavy shower with thunder observed out there, nothing great but nice to hear a storm again.