General January Weather

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 25/01/2016 15:03

Orion wrote:♫ "Summer rain taps at my window.." - quite a good downpour at present

No such luck out here. Hot, sticky, dry. May change in the coming days with the patternchanger from the north?

Captain Salty · Unread post by **Captain Salty** » Mon 25/01/2016 19:21

could be a spectacular sunset tonight if that arch cloud gets lit up

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 25/01/2016 19:49

Going to be a good sun set here too. We have a weak convergence right above me and clear out west. Once the sun lights Te base of this cloud up it will be incredible.

Even getting the odd spit out of this convergence.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 25/01/2016 20:28

Captain Salty wrote:could be a spectacular sunset tonight if that arch cloud gets lit up

Yes

Amazing forms on the NW Arch this afternoon.
Will post up some photos later.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 25/01/2016 23:01

Here's one

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 25/01/2016 23:02

.....and another

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 26/01/2016 04:40

Welcome 4mm of rain overnight maybe more to come? .......

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 26/01/2016 07:06

Great NW arch John!

Approach of TC Victor is pushing subtropical moisture our way. Turning unstable later today over upper North Island!

Looking like localised downpours tomorrow pm down Waitomo/southern Waikato way.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 09:12

Geez metservice have projected a lot of rain tomorrow for Chch. Watching with interest- 75mm plus from early tomorrow through to early Thursday? That would be flood material here in town

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/01/2016 09:22

That will be a mistake Razor and will be downgraded to around the 20-30mm region later on today or early tomorrow. I don't know why but that 48 hour rainfall projection can sometimes double or even triple the likely amount of rainfall a day or so out from the event before eventually always being pulled back closer to the time...

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:08

Bradley wrote:That will be a mistake Razor and will be downgraded to around the 20-30mm region later on today or early tomorrow. I don't know why but that 48 hour rainfall projection can sometimes double or even triple the likely amount of rainfall a day or so out from the event before eventually always being pulled back closer to the time...

Yes I hope that's correct. 20-30 would be great as a top up. 75+ would be silly (moved post because strictly this is a stalled front rather than Victor to my mind)

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:12

...and suddenly the projection is shorn back to 8.1mm!!! Ten fold reduction?

Seriously sometimes I wonder why Metservice put the computer generated stuff up to the public view, the flip flops can look achingly embarrassing

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:16

The flow looks likely to be southeasterly over Canterbury, so Chch might not get that much.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:17

Doesn't look good for the Canterbury v Otago cricket semifinal at Hagley Oval tomorrow.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:29

For the upper North Island it looks like we keep the tropical weather into next week.
Temperatures on the humidex scale into the 30s.
Possible heavy showers in the mix from tomorrow.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/01/2016 10:30

And just like that it has been downgraded to only 10mm in the 48 hour forecast

Rogue · Unread post by **Rogue** » Tue 26/01/2016 13:16

Would love to chase tomorrow but its looking like the action will be north of Taupo where wind convergence and heating will be strongest, a bit far for me to go on a workday...

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/01/2016 16:07

NIWA's rain forecast model is off with fairies predicting 60mm for Christchurch over the next 2 and a bit days!!

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 26/01/2016 17:15

Looks wet to me and I wouldn't be surprised to see 40-50mm away from the shelter of banks peninsula.

shovelopikis · Unread post by **shovelopikis** » Tue 26/01/2016 20:13

4th consecutive day of 30c+ here in south waikato.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/01/2016 20:24

Metservice now back to predicting 60mm+ for the event, not sure if this is another error or what they are actually predicting now!!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 26/01/2016 20:31

shovelopikis wrote:4th consecutive day of 30c+ here in south waikato.

Similar here with 28.5, 30.1, 29.2, 29.1 and that's with quite a bit of humidity. Hamilton airport has been slightly warmer with 29, 30, 30, and not sure today.

We don't often see days in a row like this. As someone mentioned earlier, 28 29 and even 30 is quite common but getting over 30 is quite hard for Hamilton to achieve. This run of days seems a bit warmer than normal.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:12

Gisborne Airport has topped 30C for the last 6 days. 31C,33C,32C,31C,31C,31C

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:14

Bradley wrote:Metservice now back to predicting 60mm+ for the event, not sure if this is another error or what they are actually predicting now!!

yes, certainly looks like a wet day tomorrow, and tomorrow night! I would lean more towards 45-50mm for ChCh itself.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:16

Bradley wrote:Metservice now back to predicting 60mm+ for the event, not sure if this is another error or what they are actually predicting now!!

It's not really their prediction as such. It's just a computer forecast from their 3 day model, and can only really be used as a rough guide to what the weather will be like

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