General January Weather

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:18

jamie wrote:
shovelopikis wrote:4th consecutive day of 30c+ here in south waikato.
Similar here with 28.5, 30.1, 29.2, 29.1 and that's with quite a bit of humidity. Hamilton airport has been slightly warmer with 29, 30, 30, and not sure today.

We don't often see days in a row like this. As someone mentioned earlier, 28 29 and even 30 is quite common but getting over 30 is quite hard for Hamilton to achieve. This run of days seems a bit warmer than normal.

Been 27 here most days recently, so nothing too extreme. Forecast low of 21 tonight for Auckland!

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:23

We don't often see days in a row like this. As someone mentioned earlier, 28 29 and even 30 is quite common but getting over 30 is quite hard for Hamilton to achieve. This run of days seems a bit warmer than normal.

Metservice changed the forecast high for the day back to 30, which they seem to do sometimes as a form of rear-casting. Hence the airport may have broken 30 again today.
I remember there was a 31.1 or so back in the 1998 heatwave and some hot days either side but airport may not have exceeded 30, 3 days in a row even in that historic event. The ground was very dry at that time and it was reported that was a factor. Not the case now.

A 31C in March 2013 was caused by a fluke perfect E-SE wind that must have had a slight foehn effect. There was a single day >30 early in December one year early 2000's which was usual. But overall not many days over 30 in the 18 years since 98.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:25

David wrote:
Bradley wrote:Metservice now back to predicting 60mm+ for the event, not sure if this is another error or what they are actually predicting now!!
It's not really their prediction as such. It's just a computer forecast from their 3 day model, and can only really be used as a rough guide to what the weather will be like

Its bizarre and the flip flopping is really unacceptable to ordinary members of the public. They would be better off removing computer generated feeds from the website, leave it for the technical data users.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:33

Well said Razor - going from 70mm to 10mm back to 60mm in the space of 8 hours is absurd, if there was a experienced meteorologist moderating the data you would find a much more balanced forecast being put out there to the public...

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:35

Agreed Razor, those rain forecasts only cause confusion for most people. The modeled wind and temperatures don't seem too bad though.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:37

And right on cue, quite heavy rain just started up here at home. Big fat drops thumping on the roof

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 26/01/2016 21:42

cbm wrote: Metservice changed the forecast high for the day back to 30, which they seem to do sometimes as a form of rear-casting. Hence the airport may have broken 30 again today.

Yea I was thinking the exact same thing

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 26/01/2016 22:34

cbm wrote:I remember there was a 31.1 or so back in the 1998 heatwave and some hot days either side but airport may not have exceeded 30, 3 days in a row even in that historic event. The ground was very dry at that time and it was reported that was a factor. Not the case now.

Hamilton Aero did record 31C 4 days in a row in early Feb 1998, plus one other day about 2 weeks later.

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Tue 26/01/2016 23:11

Thanks for confirming that. 1998 sure was an extreme year.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Tue 26/01/2016 23:34

Metservice changed the forecast high for the day back to 30, which they seem to do sometimes as a form of rear-casting. Hence the airport may have broken 30 again today.

You'll find that just after 7.30pm, they tweak the temps for the next four days and in doing so, today's actual high temp reverts back to what was predicted after the 7.30am run. I've mentioned it a couple of times to Metservice and they say they'll look in to it but nothing changes...

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 27/01/2016 03:59

Up to 11mm here for the event, very steady falls now.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 27/01/2016 10:28

Just light drizzly stuff here. Ran to work and the raincoat barely got wet

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 27/01/2016 12:25

has been dry here in town for the past 3 hours. There might even be cricket at Hagley park soon!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 27/01/2016 12:42

Steady drizzle here with the odd heavier period.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 27/01/2016 13:59

Still dry here. As per the above, dry enough at Hagley for cricket to now be played. Question is, for how long???

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Wed 27/01/2016 14:09

Razor wrote:Still dry here. As per the above, dry enough at Hagley for cricket to now be played. Question is, for how long???

Looking at a few maps etc, and the radar, i would suggest within the next 2 hours some more persistent set in rain will arrive, and maybe the odd heavy fall later tonight too?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Wed 27/01/2016 14:36

INCOMING, radar starting to look good for Canterbury now, by good... I mean more favorable for rain!

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 27/01/2016 17:27

20mm here in Rangiora today with 10 falling in the last hour or so with lots of surface flooding now.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 27/01/2016 17:34

21mm here today, yet Waiau has had no rain since 9.00am

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 27/01/2016 19:34

Certainly a drenching run home! 10 mm for us since about 3:30pm, still light rain since

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 27/01/2016 19:53

30mm now and still steady

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Thu 28/01/2016 04:02

Just gone over the 50mm mark here for the system with 42mm falling yesterday, this compered to only 20mm in chch.
A Whopping 172mm for the month now.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 28/01/2016 06:42

39mm here for the last few days 148mm this month

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 28/01/2016 09:15

Approaching 40mm here for the event too, about 30% more than at the airport

100mm for the month of Jan which I believe is well over double the average

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 28/01/2016 12:07

Great to see farmers with a positive state of mind now in North Canterbury:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming ... ht-iceberg

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