Unstable Period - 17th - 20th Jan

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/01/2016 07:25

More good rain last night. 4.4 before midnight and 9.2 after midnight. Awesome stuff. This must be our first "normal" January rainfall in years.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/01/2016 07:27

Shame about the storms for this part of the country so far for Jan. So much promise but nothing eventuating.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 19/01/2016 09:01

jamie wrote:More good rain last night. 4.4 before midnight and 9.2 after midnight. Awesome stuff. This must be our first "normal" January rainfall in years.

It's very nice to see lawns/gardens looking greener than in recent summers. 13mm here yesterday takes us to 110mm this month.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 09:21

Sun was starting to break through the low cloud reveling some rather unstable looking middle deck cloud,but has clouded over again, plenty of moisture which wont be a problem after all the rain lately.

Todays Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 19 Jan 2016

Issued at: 9:15am Tuesday 19 Jan 2016

A weakening front should move east across Bay of Plenty today preceded by heavy rain and a moderate risk of thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm per hour this afternoon.

A cold pool aloft should cross the upper South Island today bringing widespread showers. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms giving rainfall rates of 10-25mm/hr through to this evening over parts of Nelson, Marlborough and north Canterbury. A larger low risk area extends down to south Canterbury and north Otago including the southern Alps.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expecte

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 19/01/2016 11:21

Yeah Id be looking at ur area Richard. So I agree with MS North canterbury looks the spot for a heavy shower/thunder today. The instability is strong from kiakora inland.. some good moisture around there to.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 13:37

Its remained cloudy but the instability has certainty been increasing over the last hour, so starting to look promising.

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Tue 19/01/2016 14:08

Radar looking potentially thundery over the coast near Timaru, in the low risk area.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 19/01/2016 14:10

Richard wrote:Its remained cloudy but the instability has certainty been increasing over the last hour, so starting to look promising.

Looks like best chance 4pm-6ish for storms

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 15:53

Yes you are right Mike, its only the last hour that clouds have started to bubble up, there's two cells, the one in the photo to the WSW and another to my NW, which is coming this way.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:06

First thunder heard from the storm to the wsw, the other storm to the NW is looking like its going to be a good one.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:21

Good stuff Richard, nice to see!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:39

Now thunder all round and close along with a heavy cloud bust $\:D/$

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:50

Nice!! About time your getting a set up around your way!

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:52

mikestormchaser wrote:Nice!! About time your getting a set up around your way!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 16:52

17mm in 10 min and still pouring down

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 18:07

Interesting storm,moved from the NW, but wasn't till it had crossed overhead before the first of the thunder& lighting about 2kms to the SE, at its 10-15min peak there was none stop thunder. Ended up with 22mm from that down pour, 109mm for Jan so far.

einzack · Unread post by **einzack** » Tue 19/01/2016 18:38

Richard, TV3 said in a piece about the Culverden/Harwarden area that they've received more rain so far this year than for all of 2015.
Is that correct?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/01/2016 19:05

einzack wrote:Richard, TV3 said in a piece about the Culverden/Harwarden area that they've received more rain so far this year than for all of 2015.
Is that correct?

No thats not right , i'm not sure what Hawarden's rainfall for last year was but Culverden's was 311mm, weve had about 1/3 though of that though.

einzack · Unread post by **einzack** » Tue 19/01/2016 19:15

It didn't sound right when I heard it either, so either the piece was wrong or I need hearing aids...

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 19/01/2016 19:53

Richard wrote:
einzack wrote:Richard, TV3 said in a piece about the Culverden/Harwarden area that they've received more rain so far this year than for all of 2015.
Is that correct?
No thats not right , i'm not sure what Hawarden's rainfall for last year was but Culverden's was 311mm, weve had about 1/3 though of that though.

That's the sort of nonsense the media publish without any fact-checking these days ...

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 19/01/2016 20:35

Yea I heard that too, thought it was strange......

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 19/01/2016 21:01

Report of an apparent tornado west of Feilding at about 4:30pm yesterday…

'Tornado brings damage and confusion after touching down in Sanson' - Manawatu Standard (Stuff)

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 19/01/2016 21:08

If it was one, jeez it would have to have been the weakest one ever one record.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 19/01/2016 21:24

Over 50mm in Timaru. Quite a deal of flooding

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/01/2016 22:11

It didn't look all that "Thunderstormic" today, so no warnings from here, but I'm glad you got that thunderstorm in your neck of the woods in Medbury, Richard and south Canterbury got a 'bit of a drink'.
I was talking to Mike on Saturday in the Rolleston New World and he said that there could be something happening on Tuesday. He was right!

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