How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Locked
User avatar
snowchaser01
Posts: 556
Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
Location: Northwood, Christchurch
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 95 times

How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Only 2 days ago, most forecasters were predicting that Tropical Cyclone Victor would slide well to the east of New Zealand, delivering us some larger swells on the eastern seaboard and that is about it. Although, in the last day or so, many forecasting maps have been predicting that Victor will slide more towards New Zealand. With an ETA of sometime during Wednesday.

It would have well weakened by then however and will be an Ex TC. However strong winds and rain are still looking very possible for the NE of the North Island, and possible much of the east coast as well. And depending on how well Victor stays together, possible some of the South Islands East coast as well. It now deserves its own topic in this thread as it moves south out of the pacific islands and towards NZ. Something to keep a close eye on! :-k
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
bobbymcd
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat 12/10/2013 21:21
Location: Auckland
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by bobbymcd »

These are the GFS ensemble tracks for remains of VICTOR :
07P_gefs_18z.png
From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

with GFS 1 feb scenario:
gfs_z500_mslp_swpac_41.png
From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

but ECMWF (more reliable) has this sceanrio for 1 feb (with a new low coming in from the Tasman sea)
ecmwf_z500_mslp_swpac_11.png
From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by NZstorm »

I am not a fan of the ex tropical cyclones, they generally just bring mucky weather. But there is a chance this one could trigger some strong thunderstorms over the North Island Wednesday due to moisture advection.

Also looking like some possible wind gusts of 85km/h for exposed eastern parts of the North Island.

Welcome back to the forum Bob.
User avatar
snowchaser01
Posts: 556
Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
Location: Northwood, Christchurch
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 95 times

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

I see MetService have mentioned a low confidence in their latest Severe Weather Outlook of Ex TC Victor producing some heavy rain for the eastern NI on Wed and Thurs.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by jamie »

Wednesday is looking rather interesting. Have been watching this day for a few days now.
User avatar
snowchaser01
Posts: 556
Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
Location: Northwood, Christchurch
Has thanked: 71 times
Been thanked: 95 times

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by snowchaser01 »

Latest MS severe weather outlook extends the low risk of heavy rain all the way down to the Kaikoura Coast. As well as severe S-SE gales.
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Gisborne region may get a 6 to 9hour period of intense rain. Enough to cause local flash flooding.

If sufficient surface moisture convergence develops over inland North Island Wednesday a few localised downpours/thunderstorms will develop.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by jamie »

Loving the 12z GFS for the next week. Hectors moisture sticks around and sets us up for afternoon showers/storms for most of the week if the 12z holds true.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: How will Victor affect New Zealand?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Still looking like the potential for a brief period of very heavy rain/Isolated thunder Thursday morning between East Cape and Gisborne as Victor remnants moves through. I'm sure the area will need the rain.
Locked