Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

[Razor]

thanks guys, this is precisely why I thought it worthy of its own thread, if only certain media read the forum here!

EDIT having said that, this is one of the better Stuff articles that I've seen:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-paci ... ead-for-nz

NB How ironic it would be if a cyclone called Winston came by Northland

[dizzy]

Interesting that WeatherWatch have now edited all the articles they posted yesterday - particularly the headlines. Hmmm. He has also now re-defined a "hit" as anything that sends some swell in our direction. With a definition that broad, you can't be wrong!

[melja]

Do people still look at that site, I gave up a while ago. Just an extension of another over hyped media outlet.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I reckon that TC Winston will move over Northland and then Peters out??
A bit of a joke there

[Richard]

I reckon that TC Winston will move over Northland and then Peters out??
A bit of a joke there

'I see' you are a bit of a dag John, oh **** wrong thread

[Manukau heads obs]

water vapour shows a big dip down now in the upper level wind flows/jet stream onto the NZ area now

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... wvgms.html

which is where the cyclones could migrate towards

[cbm]

GFS has it going way East now, big divergence from NAVGEM model.

http://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11 ... latest.png

[midgrove]

GFS has certainly backtracked on earlier predictions. Metservice has issued blog on TC Winston & TC Tatiana
certainly at odds with what is coming out on the media. I guess headlines of "2 topical cyclones heading for New Zealand" sells better than slight possibility of 1 cyclone having some influence

[Manukau heads obs]

GFS will flip flop more yet I suggest...no point in taking its current flip flop as concrete either

[tunster]

I can't post ECMWF imagery here, but when the GFS came out with its first scary run (last Tuesday, I think) I looked at the ECMWF ensemble members, all 50 of them. There were about 4 members that vaguely looked similar-ish to the GFS. So that GFS deterministic run just looked like some of the more outlandish members of the ECMWF ensemble.
Meanwhile the ECMWF ensemble mean from that run has turned out impressively accurate. Of course it cannot pick perfectly the position or intensity of a cyclone (pre-formation) from 6 or 7 days out, but it gave a low centre south of Fiji for today, which is the right general idea.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see ECMWF has Winston doing a big loop and heading back south towards us again...hummmm

[Razor]

Thought I'd reactivate comment on this thread as the 'remnants' are now getting at least a better chance of coming our way
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7717752 ... ew-zealand

[Manukau heads obs]

the funny thing is, you could see the jet stream cloud from here associated with Winston the first time it tried to move S (and narrowly avoided being sheared right off by that jetstream (if it had instead then Fiji would have been speared?)
and so now we are going to see once again high cloud from Winston...weird, lol

[spwill]

So much model variation with this system.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes
and the models are flip flopping alot still
and yet people are dwelling on a particular model run as if that is set in concrete

latest runs has the remains ending up off Brisbane, and yet some people said zero chance that would happen...never say never with a TC...which is what makes them so interesting to follow

[Razor]

yes
and the models are flip flopping alot still
and yet people are dwelling on a particular model run as if that is set in concrete

latest runs has the remains ending up off Brisbane, and yet some people said zero chance that would happen...never say never with a TC...which is what makes them so interesting to follow

Indeed. Fascinating to watch the ebb and flow of various projections

[Manukau heads obs]

if you look at
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... wvgms.html
it shows that the upper level winds will guide it south for a while yet..
but there is like 2 opposing directions...in the tasman the upper level flow is southerly
this could then either start to wrap around the remains of the cyclone and help in the way of an upper level low..but probably also help to drag it SW into the north tasman
or you could end up with a sharpening easterly trough develop along that western edge of cloud sheets between NZ and new caledonia....and it cold then move south along that
the high pressure over NZ is not being blocked by a low further to the east...so it could get shunted out of the way...

anything could happen yet...

my ramblings...

[Tornado Tim]

The GFS is doing some outrageous flip flops at the moment with almost all ensemble members doing a 180° turn on the previous model run. I wouldnt trust the GFS at this point in time.
UKMO and EC models are even having problems with generating a stable consensus track when looking beyond 72 hours.

However EC and UKMO have remained consistent that NZ will be affected by the remnants over the past 4 days or so.
Where in NZ is still to far away to say.

But that doesnt mean to say that we are only going to get "bad weather" associated with the Low pressure system itself.
Currently it looks like we could get a good chunk of moisture from the cyclone well before the remaints of the TC come around here meaning quite a bit of rain could be on the cards.

So these things need to taken in perspective.

[spwill]

Drizzle/heavy shower mix over the North Island in a moist flow more likely from Sunday.

[jamie]

I'm at Waiheke from early Friday to Monday afternoon. Chance of strong winds out there on Monday?

[Manukau heads obs]

dunno...I would not want to be a forecaster at the moment...

[Tornado Tim]

Yup the models are a total mess at the moment.

Lets have a look at the last 24 hours of ensemble from various models.UKMO(White), ECMWF (Yellow), GFDL (Pink), GEFS (Red)

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 8.17.28 PM.png

Looks a mess..
Taking a look at UKMO (white) and ECMWF (Yellow) in Particular:

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 8.19.05 PM.png

Looking at the tracks and taking into account the SST's, Australias BOM im sure will be keeping an eye on this system not alone with Norfolk Island but its possible interaction going back into warmer water again and tracking towards Queensland.
Even the more conservative models have got split brain on this, looks like we will have to wait a bit more to get more of an accurate picture.

I see the UKMO has quite a bit of rain coming into New Plymouth with moisture held up from Winston (around 60mm or so), Northland and Waikato to Central Plateau looking like around 30mm or so.

Interesting days to come......

[Manukau heads obs]

well, a "chunk" has split off and and is rotating due to those converging upper level winds and is now moving towards Oz,...like the models had Winston do...
but Winston is doing its own thing and is still on a SW path and is not accelerating either...
so still maybe a 50/50 call that it swings SE and back onto the NI instead of swinging NW and into Brisbane?

[treetop]

Rather that talk about "Winston" We should just refer to a large area very moist of ex Tropical air moving south now and how it will interact with the cooler air around the high. Looks interesting Sun-Tuesday for sure.

[Razor]

Rather that talk about "Winston" We should just refer to a large area very moist of ex Tropical air moving south now and how it will interact with the cooler air around the high. Looks interesting Sun-Tuesday for sure.

Agree, that's why the topic heading has the word "ex". Looks like you northerners will get some moisture but I doubt it will have any impact down here.