Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

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tunster
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by tunster »

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cbm
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Unread post by cbm »

This thread started on Feb 10th and we are still discussing this system. Apparently the longest lived cyclone lasted 31 days retaining TC status although was a close call as it weakened to a low end Cat 1 at times before reintensifying.
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Hi John,
The track ensemble data in the blog you mentioned here is incorrect (Attached in the screenshot).

The Ensemble guidance shown in the blog is from GEFS and not from UKMO.

UKMO tracks are always in White and are not in Red, that is if the data has been retrieved via RUC Earth Systems Laboratory as cited.
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tunster
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by tunster »

Tornado Tim wrote:
Hi John,
The track ensemble data in the blog you mentioned here is incorrect (Attached in the screenshot).

The Ensemble guidance shown in the blog is from GEFS and not from UKMO.

UKMO tracks are always in White and are not in Red, that is if the data has been retrieved via RUC Earth Systems Laboratory as cited.
Hi Tim, thanks, I did not write that blog but I've passed it on.

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Unread post by Razor »

cbm wrote:This thread started on Feb 10th and we are still discussing this system. Apparently the longest lived cyclone lasted 31 days retaining TC status although was a close call as it weakened to a low end Cat 1 at times before reintensifying.
I for one would be interested in the background here. What cyclone was that?
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

that record is held for the North Pacific
the south pacific is a record of 28 days set in the 1994
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Unread post by Nev »

cbm wrote:Apparently the longest lived cyclone lasted 31 days retaining TC status although was a close call as it weakened to a low end Cat 1 at times before reintensifying.
That would be Hurricane/Typhoon John, which traversed both the NE and NW Pacific basins during August and September 1994. However, the 31 day claim is questionable.

Assuming a TC is defined as having mean-winds of 35 kts or more, JTWC's 6-hourly reports (based on US 1 minute mean-winds) show that Hurricane/Typhoon John actually only lasted for 29 days and 12 hrs. The 31 days appears to be based on UTC calendar-days, which include just 6 hrs on the first day and 6 hrs before going extratropical on the last day (while still packing max-winds of 55 kts). However, John also dropped below 35 kts for 18 hrs on day 23 & 24 (2nd and 3rd of Sep).

And if you adjust the 1-minute mean-winds to the 10-minute mean-winds that the BoM, Fiji Met and JMA use, it works out at 29 days and 6 hrs (less 30 hrs on day 23 & 24).

(Stats and track-map can found here and here.)
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

if you look at
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... wvgms.html

that looks like the LLCC of Winston is going to move SE towards NZ and not NW towards the Coral sea
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by treetop »

Tuesday may be cooler in the north , then back to moist NE flow and warm again. Love this pattern [a lot of mowing though !]
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by spwill »

It has been less humid in Auckland this past week but the humidity will really crank up today.
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Re: Possible Ex-Tropical Cyclone from 13/14 Feb

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

well Ex Winston went right at the road junction...but its dragging lots of moisture towards the NI!
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