Winston upgraded to Cat 2 by RSMC earlier this morning and looks likely to get to at least Cat 3 by tomorrow…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 111330 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.9S 171.7E AT 111200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.85 WRAP YIELDS
DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
…
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALING INTO A
TIGHT, CLOUD COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 111251Z
GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. AN
111035Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, CONFIRMING BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE WIND RADII.
TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) EXCEEDING 31 CELSIUS,
VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
FOR TC WINSTON IS THE DEEP-LAYER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC WINSTON IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE
STR BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, TC WINSTON WILL ROUND THE AXIS AND
TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 96 THE STR HAS REPOSITIONED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF TC WINSTON INDUCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EQUATORWARD
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC WINSTON WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS
IT TRACKS IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH SSTS WITH VWS VALUES DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER
VWS VALUES AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.
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the way the jet stream is starting to kink down now towards the north island from the Tasman sea, I think the balance is tipping back towards in favour of these twin TC's moving more SSE towards NZ
TC Tatiana was upgraded to Cat 2 a little sooner than expected by the BoM the afternoon…
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 159.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [109 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tatiana is currently moving towards the east-southeast under
the combined influence of the monsoon flow to the north of the system and an
upper level trough to its southwest over the Coral Sea. This approaching upper
trough should lead to Tatiana adopting a track more towards the southeast later
today.
The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded centre pattern using the
Himiwari platform. FT was 3.5. Confidence in the location of the low level
centre is rated as fair.
Tatiana has developed over the past 12 hours despite the presence of a 20 knots
vertical windshear from the northeast. The system is in an otherwise favourable
environment with ample ocean heat content, and the approach of the upper trough
introduces the possibility of an isentropic assistance to development in the
next 12 hours. Thereafter vertical shear is expected to weaken the system,
which may lead to a rapid weakening or at least a loss of tropical
characteristics late Saturday. The confidence of the forecast track during
Sunday and Monday is currently low as different steering wind regimes may
compete.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 120208 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.7S 171.5E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05
KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.2 WRAP YIELDS
DT=4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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Looks like Tonga might be the firing-line according JTWC's latest track. Winston has developed quite a pronounced visible eye today (looks more like a Cat 3).
WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
…
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 171.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT SYMMETRIC SPIRAL WITH AN EYEWALL
BEGINNING TO FORM. A 112144Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND PHFO. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) WINSTON
IS CURRENTLY TRAVELING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REPOSITION
TO THE NORTH AND STEER TC WINSTON ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z.
...
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I don't think its going to curve away like that when you look at the upper level wind patterns that are developing now with the water vapour sat image
to me it looks like its going to keep heading south towards NZ, just like the original GFS
but then I could be wrong!
time will tell
watching with interest
RSMC Nadi upgraded Winston to Cat 3 this evening and expect Cat 4 by tomorrow morning,
960 hPa and 150 km/h winds.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 120758 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S 171.5E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 06
KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, B EYE SURROUNDED BY W IN CMG WITH EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=5.5. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0.FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...
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BoM now keeping Tatiana in its AOR and travelling more SSW - 985 hPa, max winds 95 km/h…
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0718 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 159.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [145 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tatiana is currently moving towards the southeast under the
combined influence of the monsoon flow to the north of the system and an upper
level trough to its southwest over the Coral Sea. This approaching upper trough
should lead to Tatiana adopting a track more towards the south during Saturday.
The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a CDO pattern using the Himiwari
platform. FT was 3.5. Confidence in the location of the low level centre is
rated as fair. Intensity is set at 50kn [10 min mean] and is consistent with the
latest SATCON estimate of 52kn [1 min mean].
Tatiana has developed over the past 12 hours despite the presence of a 20 knots
vertical windshear from the northeast. The system is in an otherwise favourable
environment with ample ocean heat content, and the approach of the upper trough
introduces the possibility of an isentropic assistance to development in the
next 12 hours. Thereafter vertical shear and dry mid-level air is expected to
weaken the system, which may lead to a rapid weakening or at least a loss of
tropical characteristics late Saturday.
Latest forecast guidance suggests a forecast track a little closer to the west
during Sunday. The system may remain as a deep low well offshore from the
southeast Qld coast during Sunday and Monday, before the remant circulation
weakens
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WTPS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
…
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 159.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
COLD DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 120404Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY NORTH-SOUTH
ELONGATED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T4.0. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC TATIANA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A MORE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS AND IS
INCREASINGLY BEING CHOKED BY EXHAUST FROM TC WINSTON, LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC TATIANA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL COMPLETELY ENVELOP TC
TATIANA BY TAU 48. AS TC TATIANA TRAVELS SOUTH BEYOND TAU 24, VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LOWER
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, RESULTING IN RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER TAU
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
GIVING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.
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Winston has undergone very rapid intensification overnight, going from Cat 3 to Cat 4 in just 6 hours by just after midnight when central pressure was 950 hPa with max winds of around 170 km/h. JTWC have him to pegged at Cat 5 later today…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 121345 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S 171.4E AT 121200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
…
EYE WELL DEFINED. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANIZATION GOOD. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W IN CMG RING
WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=6.5. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5.FT BASED ON PT
THUS, YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 22.0S 171.7E MOV S AT 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 24.1S 172.8E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.2S 174.6E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 25.0S 176.5E MOV ESE AT 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 171.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
…
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN EXTREMELY WELL DEFINED AND CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE,
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC WINSTON HAS
UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE PAST
12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES RESPECTIVELY. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE VERY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND
REPOSITIONS TO THE NORTH OF TC WINSTON, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE
EAST THEN NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AND MAINTAINS A GENERAL EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
THE NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC WINSTON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SSTS,
WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPERIENCING INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES BACK TO AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE, OHC AND SSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND VWS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE, THEREBY ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET.
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TC Tatiana was downgraded to Cat 1 this morning by the BoM and expected to weaken below TC strength in the next 24 hours…
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1843 UTC 12/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.7S
Longitude: 160.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [170 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Tatiana continues to struggle under approximately 30 knots of northerly deep
layer wind shear. Another burst of deep convection has occurred during the past
6 hours, however microwave imagery depicts a sheared system with the LLCC about
0.4 degrees north of the deep convection.
Intensity is analysed at 45 knots [10 minute mean]. A RapidScat pass at 1449Z
gave greater confidence in the location of the LLCC relative to the deepest
convection, and indicated max winds around 45 knots. Dvorak DT using a shear
pattern is 3.0 [centre directly under strong temperature gradient]. The MET and
PAT support this, so final T is 3.0. Objective guidance [ADT and SATCON] is
slightly higher than this, but will bias the intensity more towards the
RapidScat and manual Dvorak estimates.
Tropical cyclone Tatiana is currently moving south, chiefly under the influence
of northerly steering ahead of an upper trough near the Australian east coast.
The intensity prognosis is dominated by the effect of the strong [and
increasing] vertical wind shear, which should weaken the system to below
tropical cyclone strength during the next 24 hours. Intensity is held constant
for the first 6 hours to allow for the overnight maritime convective maximum to
partially counteract this wind shear. After the system becomes extratropical,
some computer models maintain or even deepen the resultant low as a result of
baroclinic intensification.
Latest forecast guidance suggests a forecast track a little closer to the west
during Sunday. The system may remain as a deep low well offshore from the
southeast Qld coast during Sunday and Monday, before the remant circulation
weakens.
...
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TC Winston strengthened of little more this morning. Nadi's 19Z TC Warning had a central pressure of 947 hPa, max-winds currently 175 km/h rising to about 185 km/h today.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 122013 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 171.5 EAST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT
ABOUT 09 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN PAST 24 HOURS.EYE WELL DEFINED IN IR
IMAGERY LAST 12 HOURS. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6
HOURS. ORGANIZATION GOOD. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W WITH NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=6.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON PT THUS,
YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 22.7S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 24.3S 173.3E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 24.9S 174.9E MOV SE AT 9KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 24.4S 176.3E MOV SE AT 7KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
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BoM have bumped TC Tatiana back up to Cat 2 this arvo, but still expect ETT by tomorrow morning…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:55 am EST on Saturday 13 February 2016
At 10 am AEST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Tatiana (Category 2) with central
pressure 984 hPa was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 20.9
south longitude 160.5 east, which is about 890 km east northeast of Fraser
Island.
The cyclone is moving south southeast at about 22 kilometres per hour.
Tropical cyclone Tatiana should continue moving in a general southwards
direction today and is expected to transition into a deep subtropical low
pressure system later today or overnight into Sunday.
The remnant subtropical low is not expected to impact the Queensland coast
directly, however it will generate powerful surf along the coast from Sunday
and into Monday in areas south of Sandy Cape, including the Sunshine Coast and
the Gold Coast.
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Winston looks to have weakened slightly today and with decreasing STT's in the next day or two should weaken a little further, although once he moves north again he should regain some strength. Nadi seems to have maintained a central pressure of 947 hPh and max-winds of 175 km/h increasing to 185 km/h.
HURRICANE WARNING 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 130059 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 947HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9
SOUTH 171.7 EAST AT 130000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 21.9S 171.7E AT 130000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 171.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
...
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 172.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE REMAINS A CONSISTANT FEATURE, BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REFLECTING A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. GIVEN THESE
OBSERVATIONS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED FROM 115
KNOTS, ON THE 121800Z OFF-CYCLE POSITION, TO 105 KNOTS. TC 11P
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED OVER FIJI, BUT BY TAU 36, THE STR
WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD AS A MERIDIONAL PATTERNED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF TC WINSTON. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE GRADIENT FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS NORTHWARD.
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS THE TRACK TAKES TC 11P
EQUATORWARD, INCREASING SSTS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 48 THROUGH TAU
120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.
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Winston has maintained the same strength this evening according to RSMC Nadi, with some weakening expected in the short-term…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 130812 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 947HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.3 SOUTH 172.0 EAST AT 130600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT
ABOUT 12 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.
...
EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY
WARMED PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE
SURROUNDED BY LG IN B RING WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=5.0,
MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 24.9S 173.3E MOV SS AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 25.4S 174.9E MOV E AT 07KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 24.8S 176.2E MOV NE AT 07KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 23.5S 177.1E MOV NE AT 07KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
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The BoM downgraded Tatiana down to Cat 1 early this morning and main convection has now been well sheared to the south and weakened leaving a fairly exposed LLCC…
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1248 UTC 13/02/2016
Name: Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 23.2S
Longitude: 160.3E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [80 km]
Movement Towards: south [186 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Tatiana is now located under 40 knots of northerly deep layer wind shear as
diagnosed by the CIMMS vertical shear product. The cloud signature has
deteriorated rapidly during the past 6 hours and now appears weaker than at this
time last night.
Intensity is analysed at 40 knots [10 minute mean]. This is primarily based on
the 11Z ASCAT pass depicting 40 knot winds chiefly in the southern half of the
circulation. Confidence in the LLCC position is fair at most, and as a result
shear-based Dvorak DT is difficult to obtain. MET is 2.0 and PAT is 2.5. Final T
2.5 with CI held up at 3.0, consistent with the observed ASCAT intensity. This
is also consistent with the NESDIS ADT though somewhat lower than the CIMSS ADT.
Tropical cyclone Tatiana continues to move south, chiefly under the influence of
northerly steering ahead of an upper trough near the Australian east coast.
Tatiana should continue to move in this direction tonight and into Sunday.
The intensity prognosis is dominated by the effect of the strong [and
increasing] vertical wind shear, which should result in the system losing its
tropical characteristics during the next 12 hours or so. On Sunday, Tatiana is
expected to transition into a deep extratropical low and may reintensify
somewhat as a result of baroclinic processes. The deep extratropical low is
expected to remain offshore, but should produce powerful surf along parts of the
Queensland and New South Wales coast from Sunday and into Monday.
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Winston continues a slight weakening trend and earlier this morning had a central pressure of 950 hPa and max winds to about 165 km/h…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 131337 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.1 SOUTH 172.8 EAST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
…
EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. CLOUD TOPS COOLING
PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH B EYE SURROUNDED
BY W WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.0S 174.4E MOV ESE AT 09KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 24.8S 176.2E MOV ENE AT 09KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 23.8S 177.8E MOV NE AT 09KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 22.4S 179.2E MOV NE AT 09KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
…
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS OCCURRING. A 130735Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 11P TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
GRADUALLY THOUGH TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS WITHIN THE
TROUGH AND COLDER SSTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
FILL AND TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS
OVER MORE FAVORABLE SSTS AND LOWER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK
MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.
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Tatiana was declared an extratropical cyclone (Ex-TC) by the BoM this morning…
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1841 UTC 13/02/2016
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tatiana
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 25.6S
Longitude: 160.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
…
REMARKS:
The deep layer wind shear over ex-Tatiana has increased and is now 40 to 50
knots. The cloud signature has continued to deteriorate rapidly during the past
6 hours, with no new convective blowups evident even moving into the time of the
nocturnal convective maximum.
Confidence in the LLCC position has improved, with microwave AMSU and RGB
enhanced Himawari IR satellite imagery depicting an exposed low level centre
Intensity is analysed at 30 knots [10 minute mean], below tropical cyclone
strength. This is based on the much weakened cloud signature through manual
Dvorak - DT is 2.0, MET and PAT are 1.5. Final T is 2.0, with CI held up at 2.5.
Objective Dvorak techniques support weakening below tropical cyclone strength as
well.
Ex-tropical cyclone Tatiana will continue to move south during the next 12
hours, chiefly under the influence of northerly steering ahead of an upper
trough near the Australian east coast. Thereafter it will stall before turning
back northwards under the influence of low-level SSE flow and a developing
mid-level ridge to its west.
Some NWP models retain ex-Tatiana as a reasonably vigorous subtropical
circulation due to baroclinic interaction, with gales persisting in the SW
quadrant for approximately another 24 hours. Ex-Tatiana is expected to remain
off of the Queensland coast, but should produce powerful surf along parts of the
Queensland and New South Wales coast today and on Monday.
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TC winston has turned SE just as the models predicted...and so now its done that its blocked by the high and so will glance back NR now..just as the models have predicated...those models are good
Winstone was downgraded to Cat 3 earlier this afternoon. Central pressure 955 hPa, with max winds about 160 km/h and heading SE at about 20 km/h. Winstone looks to have taken a little bit of a beating, with main convection sheared slightly to the east of LLCC. However, conditions should improve in a few days time after he heads NE, allowing some restrengthening…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 140131 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2 SOUTH 175.1 EAST AT 140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 11 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH W SURROUND
YIELDING DT=5.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. CI HELD HIGH DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINT THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 24.9S 176.9E MOV E AT 08KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 23.8S 178.5E MOV NE AT 09KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 22.2S 179.9E MOV NE AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 20.8S 178.8W MOV NE AT 09KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
…
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 173.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS BEGINNING TO WARM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS OCCURRING. A 130735Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 11P TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
GRADUALLY THOUGH TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS WITHIN THE
TROUGH AND COLDER SSTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
FILL AND TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS
OVER MORE FAVORABLE SSTS AND LOWER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK
MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.
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Winston still showing good deep convection today, but continues to slowly weaken. Central pressure up to 960 hPa, max-winds down to 140 km/h.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 140748 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.4 SOUTH 176.2 EAST AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH. SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED LG
YIELDS DT=4.5, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET. CI HELD 0.5
HIGHER DUE TO CI RULE FOR WEAKENING. THUS YIELDING
T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 24.8S 177.8E MOV ENE AT 08KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 23.7S 178.9E MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.4S 179.9E MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 21.4S 179.2W MOV NE AT 07KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
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Like Titiana, Winston looks to "Peters Out".
(My wife is getting sick of me trying to make up jokes about the names of these TCs or future double TCs that may come about)
Main convection offset to the east, but still persistent and quite deep. Winston was a border-line Cat 3 earlier this morning, with a central pressure of 970 hPa, with max winds of 120 km/h.
Although Winstone is expected to weaken a little more in the next day or two, temps and shear should improve and JTWC are still hopeful he'll bounce back to Cat 3.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 141343 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2 SOUTH 177.4 EAST AT 141200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
...
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT MOSTLY ABOUT AND EAST OF LLCC.
ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH.
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE
PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON MET. CI HELD HIGHER DUE TO CI RULE FOR WEAKENING. THUS
YIELDING T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 24.3S 178.9E MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 23.0S 179.9W MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 21.7S 178.9W MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 20.7S 177.4W MOV NE AT 08KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 177.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
…
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS TC 11P HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 141017Z AMSU-B
89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED UPON A 141018Z ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED UPON THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 96, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED, AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AFTER TAU 96, AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS. HOWEVER,
AFTER TAU 48, GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS AND WARMER SSTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
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