General March Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like a generally warm one to start off the first month of Autumn.
With current weather patterns, looks likely to be warm for a while yet, possibly into winter.

[spwill]

I think March will be warmer than average.
For Auckland I consider the first few weeks of March to be part of Summer.

[NZstorm]

For Auckland I consider the first few weeks of March to be part of Summer.

March is warmer than December, particularly in the hotter years.

[mikestormchaser]

So much for a decent thunderstorm season if u can even call it that for an el nino pattern.
I was thinking today that quite possbily having the el nino weather sernario could be a slight dis advantage? the reason i say this is because genrally speaking the el nino will be more WSW dominant, now with the south island land mass and weather pattern is very west to east anyway, SO wouldnt this enhance the strength of the highs and warm air coming over from the tasman pushing the colder air offshore and keeping it bay? where as the la nina tends to be more NNE dominant witch should allow more moisture to flow down the country and making it easier for the cold troughs to come straight up the islands, enhancing thunderstorm activity?? thats my little theory anyways!! Id like thoughts

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting scenario there , Mikey.
Previous El Nino events have been quite interesting/thunderous (in Canterbury) but this one has been very un-eventful, it's that boring is mainly the reason why I have not been making many postings recently, even on my weather blog. Bring on La Nina, I say

[spwill]

So much for a decent thunderstorm season if u can even call it that for an el nino pattern.
I was thinking today that quite possbily having the el nino weather sernario could be a slight dis advantage? the reason i say this is because genrally speaking the el nino will be more WSW dominant, now with the south island land mass and weather pattern is very west to east anyway, SO wouldnt this enhance the strength of the highs and warm air coming over from the tasman pushing the colder air offshore and keeping it bay? where as the la nina tends to be more NNE dominant witch should allow more moisture to flow down the country and making it easier for the cold troughs to come straight up the islands, enhancing thunderstorm activity?? thats my little theory anyways!! Id like thoughts

Too anticyclonic over the South Island for much in the way of Summer Tstorms this season.

My memory of La Nina is the South Island tends to be dominated by Highs while the upper NI is troughy but very warm in the upper levels, not great for storms anywhere. I think El Nino is usually better for storms .

[treetop]

Not very thundery up north either . Fronts have been "sliding" SE with little or no wind change or convergence rather than moving across with resultant large pressure changes . The jet stream influence has kept the fronts on this track with any thunder mainly the elevated type on fast moving weak storms. Been some good pm storms in Sth Waikato and eastern BOP but can count those on one hand.

[treetop]

Sorry. There was that warm unstable few days in Waikato. I was overseas for a week and missed most of it.[typical !]

[mikestormchaser]

Yeah definitely very anticyclonic! Total gloom is what it is!! Nothing exciting at all except the very balmy warm night's we have been getting on the weekend.

[NZstorm]

An issue for the Canterbury thunderstorm season is you are relying on getting a polar jet stream in summer. And the North Island summers tend to be dominated by the ridge. Continents produce 'loaded gun' style instability and that's why Aussie is the place for storms in this part of the world. USA gets the loaded gun coupled with extreme wind shear.

Looks to be a chance of lightning over Northland as well as Waitomo this afternoon.

[Razor]

Looks like another very warm week looming for us in the eastern south once we kick the tail of the current cooler change out. After a wet January things have got dry again pretty fast with those sustained low-mid 30 degree heatwaves enhancing dry off, and less than 20mm in Feb for us. Grass around town has noticeably browned off again, no doubt the farmers are keeping a weathered eye on the longer range prognosis again

Also interesting to note that the Metservice at the airport had a maximum temp of 20 or above on every day of the month, with five over 30, and a maximum of 34. On our side of town (ChCh southern suburbs) we failed to reach 20 only yesterday on the 29th of Feb, but we had six 30-plus degree days with a max of 36.

Furthermore, the New Brighton station had further evidence of the impact of the dreaded NE, with 11 days failing to make 20 degrees and only three passing 30. Fascinating to observe the local variances over such short distances.

[Captain Salty]

when do sea temperatures peak around NZ ?

[Manukau heads obs]

Basicly now or over the next couple of weeks
sea temperatures have been at what must have been record high temperatures at times over the last couple of months...24C at times around the upper North Island

[mikestormchaser]

An issue for the Canterbury thunderstorm season is you are relying on getting a polar jet stream in summer. And the North Island summers tend to be dominated by the ridge. Continents produce 'loaded gun' style instability and that's why Aussie is the place for storms in this part of the world. USA gets the loaded gun coupled with extreme wind shear.

Looks to be a chance of lightning over Northland as well as Waitomo this afternoon.

Exactly Stephen! ! And it's bloody hard to get a cold trough in summer. quite often ill look at only one peice of the puzzle first witch is the 500mb temperture and if thats not that cold i wont even bother looking further on the models, as to me cold upper air is one big vital thing for canterbury plains set up! The two best months here would have to be November and December. With February often the close 3rd. With the hope all is not doomed yet with the potential of a cold pool set up as we get closer to winter while there's still that vigorous heating! Otherwise roll on a good snow event this winter

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nice display of NW lenticular clouds today but I didn't take any photographs.

[03Stormchaser]

Nice display of NW lenticular clouds today but I didn't take any photographs.

I did notice this in this evenings sunset, also abit of smoke around.

[mikestormchaser]

Nice display of NW lenticular clouds today but I didn't take any photographs.

I did notice this in this evenings sunset, also abit of smoke around.

Saw some smoke just south of rolly. Must of been a burn off as I hadn't heard the local fire siren/ tornado siren go off

[treetop]

Continents provide both hot and cold. Spring and Autumn are the battlegrounds as one or the other try to take over. For us in a marine climate the Tasman sea"s mostly SW/NW flows and fast moving systems mix the air masses into a mush. The trade off for us is good sunshine all year round.I spent a couple of weeks in BC [Canada] last month with no more than 6 hours sunshine total.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Sorry. I posted my comments in the wrong thread but never mind.
Things like that happen when you get older
Hopefully we might get some rain this week?
Only 15.3mm falling in the last 5 weeks, here

[Vertigo]

Very disappointing summer for me personally... hot, muggy, no thunder days, only one minor ex-cyclone.. everything i dislike!

[NZstorm]

Very disappointing summer for me personally... hot, muggy, no thunder days, only one minor ex-cyclone.. everything i dislike!

I think we will have a better chance than normal for thunderstorms in the Auckland area this autumn given the warm season.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yeah! ...same here.
This must be one of the worst El Niño's ever
Too many annoying anticyclones.

[RWood]

Yeah! ...same here.
This must be one of the worst El Niño's ever
Too many annoying anticyclones.

For me, one of the better ones - and vastly more pleasant than the half-baked 2009-2010 event.

[spwill]

I have enjoyed the humid warmth this year, I like the SE Queensland style of climate.
A few storm chasers this summer but as always too few.
For Auckland the thunder season is April - October

[Manukau heads obs]

its seems odd to have an anticyclonic gloom SW conditions but still be relatively warm and humid
(will be due to the very warm Tasman Sea temperatures no doubt)