NZstorm wrote:
No cold outbreak on the cards for April.
I agree .
I'm picking from mid to later in the winter period, when the occasional cold burst will pick up with the odd chance of snowfalls to low levels in Canterbury.
....but then I could be wrong.
NZstorm wrote:Looking like a fine week with a trough due next weekend, and then fine again if you believe the gfs.
No cold outbreak on the cards for April.
Looks like a fleeting cold outbreak on the weekend which may bring 850hPa temperatures of around -3C to the lower south island. It's quite brief though and behind the front looks pretty dry.
Running the Routeburn Track on Saturday. The weather is always interesting there this time of year. In 5 goes in April I have had snow, 25 degree sun, Norwest flooding, and everything in between
Pottential for snow down to 800m in the deep south late Sunday early Monday with -4 850hPa temps, whilst hardly a significant event by no means still nice to have a change in patterns..
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That secondary cold front on Monday has come out of nowhere - GFS wanted nothing to do with it the last few days and now it has just appeared - it is only a 18Z run though so lets wait for the more reliable 0Z run at 4pm...
Looking like a polar trough in the south sea clips the south of the South Island early Monday.
Severe gales/light snow to 500m Otago Peninsula southward.
700mb chart
EDIT
I hadn't seen snowaddcts post when I wrote this.
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Last edited by NZstorm on Fri 22/04/2016 20:26, edited 1 time in total.
This is the first time since god knows when that ol met service has Canterbury at a low risk for one or two TS triggering on the southerly change tomorrow. I'm so excited for this so that must say something
matttbs wrote:This is the first time since god knows when that ol met service has Canterbury at a low risk for one or two TS triggering on the southerly change tomorrow. I'm so excited for this so that must say something
A very marginal surface heat trigger and convergence would be the factor in getting anything going tomorrow afternoon, but the main southerly may well push north a good hour ahead of any precipitation hindering chances.
The upper air is also only -20c when it arrives and goes to around -26c around 3am Sunday, so the odd hail shower at best on the back edge clearing of the system and much needed 10-15mm of rain.
It may be interesting to see what comes out of tomorrows southerly change?
Possibly the usual boring stuff that usually happens, with the current weather patterns.
SnwAddct wrote:Pottential for snow down to 800m in the deep south late Sunday early Monday with -4 850hPa temps, whilst hardly a significant event by no means still nice to have a change in patterns..
It's more like a transition between one large long lived high and another large long lived high rather than a real change in pattern.
wow, must have been low topped CB
(there was a few around, some rain in them in..Hamilton picked up showers that day)
This time of year is often good for waterspouts..with the warm ocean still...
That is a big looking waterspout .
Looks like highs will dominate our weather into early May, currently the models point to a warm start to May for NZ.
Two days ago 15-20mm was forcasted, that was dropped back to 3-6mm yesterday, zero bloody rain in the end Its getting seriously dry now, i would hate to think what it would have been like if we didn't get the wet January.
Richard wrote:Two days ago 15-20mm was forcasted, that was dropped back to 3-6mm yesterday, zero bloody rain in the end Its getting seriously dry now, i would hate to think what it would have been like if we didn't get the wet January.
Where did you see a prediction of 15-20mm for this weekend?
I see Jamie got 6mm
which will be usefull, on top of a similar amount he got last weekend. but probably not enough to break the dry run in the north Waikato
