Settled Weather Periods.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 11/04/2016 17:58

I thought I would start up a topic using the term, "Settled Weather Periods" instead of using my term,' boring weather' or 'interesting boring weather' .
What do others think?

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 11/04/2016 18:15

I don't care what they're called - if they're also rather dry and sunny, all is well.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 11/04/2016 18:48

Yes, well true on that fact,Rupert.
The majority of people do like settled weather periods and that it might be pleasurable to them, but for me it does become a bit tedious, especially when you expect a period of weather that may become 'not settled' , it becomes settled, especially on those days they forecast rain but it just becomes overcast and nothing falls out the clouds.
This recent El Nino is the blame for that, I think

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 11/04/2016 20:14

Rainfall was about normal last month in chch John so can't be any complaints about that.

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RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 11/04/2016 21:11

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes, well true on that fact,Rupert.
The majority of people do like settled weather periods and that it might be pleasurable to them, but for me it does become a bit tedious, especially when you expect a period of weather that may become 'not settled' , it becomes settled, especially on those days they forecast rain but it just becomes overcast and nothing falls out the clouds.
This recent El Nino is the blame for that, I think

I have to concede I'm getting sick of watering a newish garden ...

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Tue 12/04/2016 06:15

Be careful what you wish for...

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 13/04/2016 17:39

Orion wrote:Be careful what you wish for...

Yes, i'm planing on getting some new gumboots for the coming winter, even thinking a small dingy so i can check on the sheep.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 14/04/2016 21:43

Looks like 'settled' weather for a while yet.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 15/04/2016 22:02

Nice settled weather here today.

Looks like it's going to hang around for a while, right through to June or July which is not very good as it is winter time, then, with not much of a chance of dryness after a significant wet weather event.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 16/04/2016 08:16

Yes this looong looooong drawn out period of settled weather has been so captivating, so much so that i find myself at times waking in the middle of the night with an overwhelming urge to check the computer models hoping that the current long long drawn out period of settled weather will continual on much much longer yet.............

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 17/04/2016 23:14

Another settled weather day here.
The southerly came through late morning. The wind did lower the temperature a bit and stratus cloud rolling in.
Another fine day tomorrow, methinks

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/04/2016 18:46

Yes, another couple of days of fine weather.

They never rave on about settled weather due to global warming?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 24/04/2016 19:16

I see, sorry wrong topic here, but another anticyclone is looming to end off the month of April

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 24/04/2016 21:11

Things should turn around a bit from mid May.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 24/04/2016 21:16

TonyT wrote:Things should turn around a bit from mid May.

I was thinking June or July, but then ?.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 24/04/2016 21:30

0.0mm forecast for the next 7-10 days - arrrrgh

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 25/04/2016 18:55

Looks like a blocking high and perhaps record breaking temperatures for time of year in the east to end April and start May.

As Tony suggests, a pattern change will likely happen in May. It would very unusual for the polar jet stream not to set up camp in the Tasman sometime in May.

tunster · Unread post by **tunster** » Tue 26/04/2016 00:42

From flicking through the EC deterministic, ensemble and 32 day models, the story is pretty consistent with a dominant ridge for the next week. NW flow developing over the SI next weekend but the ridge holds firm and the incoming trough does not herald a pattern change and doesn't really impact the NI. Then the ridge builds again for the first week of May. It's only from the last few days of the EC ensemble (i.e. 9th or 10th May) that the practically permanent upper NI ridge is replaced by westerlies over the whole country. Whether that's regression to climate norm or a believable shift, who knows.

It does seem believable though. I think I read a paper once which examined the behaviour of anticylones in the Aus/NZ region. It concluded that May was sufficiently different to March and April to be considered by itself. I think May is the month in which the subtropical ridge gets sucked back onto the Australian continent, which would often put NZ under a long wave trough.

PS, a relevant blog post worth reading on this topic: http://blog.metservice.com/node/1131 "Planetary Waves and the Hovmöller Diagram"

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 26/04/2016 19:06

Another lovely fine day.
When will it end?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 26/04/2016 20:44

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Another lovely fine day.
When will it end?

May 19th

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 26/04/2016 21:20

TonyT wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Another lovely fine day.
When will it end?
May 19th

Haha

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 27/04/2016 06:04

It better be before may 19th. This is ridiculous how dry the ground is

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 27/04/2016 06:46

Looking like the settled period could end by the 12th.

huge system on gfs 384hrs if you believe in long range gfs

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 27/04/2016 21:30

.....another lovely settled day today.

Interesting high cloud moving across in the upper from the SW. Made a nice sunset.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 28/04/2016 07:13

oh yes, that high cloud was just so reverting

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