General May Weather

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 28/04/2016 12:27

Looks a very mild and continued settled trend start to May. Temps very pleasant up in the low 20's for a prolonged spell running over from April well into the first week of May.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 28/04/2016 12:39

Razor wrote:Loos a very mild and continued settled trend start to May. Temps very pleasant up in the low 20's for a prolonged spell running over from April well into the first week of May.

Yawn.......... Same old.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 28/04/2016 15:27

Looks like it will be the second coldest April in Christchurch in the last 10 years in terms of minimum temperatures, all those clear sunny days and light winds would have had a major say in that I would suspect!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 28/04/2016 18:35

Razor wrote:Loos a very mild.

I don't know about your toilet but the one here has been rather cold especially in the early mornings when I have to get up and go and gave a pee during the night.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 28/04/2016 18:40

Razor wrote:Loos a very mild and continued settled trend start to May.

This depending on dumps and diarrhoea that one may be having?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 29/04/2016 07:41

It seems as though all this boring... sorry i mean settled weather is having an effect on you John

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 29/04/2016 14:26

Yeah he's starting to sound like the guy from Auckland that complained about the SWer all the time loI, forgot his name.

Sent from my Lenovo K50a40 using Tapatalk

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 29/04/2016 17:03

melja wrote:Yeah he's starting to sound like the guy from Auckland that complained about the SWer all the time loI, forgot his name.

Sent from my Lenovo K50a40 using Tapatalk

Micheal.
I hope I don't become as bad as him

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 29/04/2016 17:58

Thats the one.
Na just poking a bit of fun

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 30/04/2016 07:22

All May records will be broken over the next 8 days for sustained heat - the average maximum temp for early May is 15C for gods sake!!

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 30/04/2016 09:01

melja wrote:Thats the one.
Na just poking a bit of fun

His blog stops in Nov 2014. Not as obsessed as the Sydney character who used to complain if it didn't rain every 5 minutes ...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 01/05/2016 07:30

Looking like a decent blocking pattern for at least the next 10 days. Fortunately NZ is on the warm side of the block.

And I notice the moisture levels come up too to add to the warmth.

Dewpoints mid next week.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 01/05/2016 07:43

In other words a heap of fog for us here.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 01/05/2016 08:28

Aways prefer to be on the warm side of a block. We will notice the warm nights this week.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 01/05/2016 08:30

In other words - a continuation of our sever drought for a bit longer yet

though early signs of possible Tasman sea low pressure development next weekend

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 01/05/2016 10:14

The last time Christchurch had a May this warm (looking at the models I am willing to say it's almost certain that This May will end up being at least the top 3 warmest since records began at the airport) the preceding winter in 2007 was the 2nd coldest in the last 18 years, surely the weather will even itself out as it always does over the winter months?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 01/05/2016 10:56

I think we are in for a mild winter as we transition from El Nino to La Nina. Less polar air masses this winter.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 01/05/2016 11:28

Maybe this El Niño had one last surprise before she buggers off for good - afterall who could've predicted that we'd have one of the wettest and coolest Januaries on record in Canterbury this year in the middle of a monster El Niño? Perhaps this winter might be just as surprising and go against all conventional wisdom

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 01/05/2016 11:56

I'm on leave from work this coming week, looks like a nice warm week. Wednesday even forecast to get to 23C!

Manukau heads obs · Sun 01/05/2016 12:50

nearly 21c here now...summer continues...

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 01/05/2016 16:34

Bradley wrote:The last time Christchurch had a May this warm (looking at the models I am willing to say it's almost certain that This May will end up being at least the top 3 warmest since records began at the airport) the preceding winter in 2007 was the 2nd coldest in the last 18 years, surely the weather will even itself out as it always does over the winter months?

May 2007 was Chch Aero's warmest ever May since records began there in 1954. So the preceding winter would have been in 2006, which technically was one of Chch Aero's coldest winters. However, that was due to June 2006 being its 2nd coldest June on record, whereas July and August were close to normal.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 01/05/2016 16:42

unexpected heavy rain here from a NW/NE convergence line

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 01/05/2016 17:15

Nev wrote:
Bradley wrote:The last time Christchurch had a May this warm (looking at the models I am willing to say it's almost certain that This May will end up being at least the top 3 warmest since records began at the airport) the preceding winter in 2007 was the 2nd coldest in the last 18 years, surely the weather will even itself out as it always does over the winter months?
May 2007 was Chch Aero's warmest ever May since records began there in 1954. So the preceding winter would have been in 2006, which technically was one of Chch Aero's coldest winters. However, that was due to June 2006 being its 2nd coldest June on record, whereas July and August were close to normal.

Sorry Nev my stuff up, I meant proceeding, not preceding. The 2007 winter was still the equal 2nd coldest in the last 18 years though whereas 2006 was the top of that particular pile

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 01/05/2016 19:21

Bradley wrote:Sorry Nev my stuff up, I meant proceeding, not preceding. The 2007 winter was still the equal 2nd coldest in the last 18 years though whereas 2006 was the top of that particular pile

Similar story for the winter of 2007, with June being well below normal (although nowhere near as cold as June 2006) and July and August close to normal. I also think the winter of 2001 was marginally colder than 2007 (as were the 3 winters just prior to 1998)...

P.S. May 2007 was also NZ's warmest ever May since NIWA's 7SS national temps began in 1909.

Edit: Correction - May 2011 was also NZ's warmest ever May.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 01/05/2016 19:23

NZstorm wrote:I think we are in for a mild winter as we transition from El Nino to La Nina. Less polar air masses this winter.

Yes, that's why I'm predicting a mild to wet winter for here in parts of the middle of the South Island.
From later in May or June , the, whatever cold southerlies that will come in and mingle with the on coming La Niña influenced weather will, I reckon not, will be good for snowfalls on the mountains, but then, maybe not.?
Because of the warmth , there might be not much significance for sufficient snowfalls to keep ski fields open.??

....but then, I could be wrong.

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