When will we see our first cold snap?

nzweathercentre · Unread post by **nzweathercentre** » Mon 02/05/2016 18:38

Been so warm lately... Looking foward to winter arriving. No major cooler snaps in the near future with the latest run of the GFS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 02/05/2016 18:57

Need to see some ridging get down into the southern oceans for decent snow chance. (cold air dredge)

Current blocking pattern is the reason its so warm. The block looks like it will be replaced by a zonal pattern which still means above average temps.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 02/05/2016 20:24

June 7th

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 02/05/2016 20:50

May 18th

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 02/05/2016 21:54

May 22nd for a proper cold snap

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Mon 02/05/2016 22:00

shovelopikis · Unread post by **shovelopikis** » Tue 03/05/2016 05:49

in winter

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 03/05/2016 08:34

Generally when the southerly hits or SSW, although if you mean when you might see it the winter precipitation may not fall until 2-3 hours after the initial wind change.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 04/05/2016 15:38

May 13th. It has to be, on a Black Friday. Surely.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 04/05/2016 18:49

Have to define what a cold snap is. I suggest 850mb -5C reaching Canterbury would be a cold snap.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 05/05/2016 06:53

A good dump of snow on the foothills would be a descent cold snap

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 12/05/2016 22:37

Getting closer to the date, Ive amended it to May the 18th and then from then it's downhill to winter.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 14/05/2016 19:08

Could now be Monday as a cold SW rips through?

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 14/05/2016 19:53

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Could now be Monday as a cold SW rips through?

Monday a cold upper trough makes it way up the islands. Heavy showers/ hail could be a goer

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 15/05/2016 21:49

....but then, it could become milder again after that but not as warm as recent days, that we have had so far in May.

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Mon 16/05/2016 00:32

Yes Monday/Tuesday... a good SW flick by the looks. Some snow to 800m maybe for the skifields.

Looking ahead, GFS picking up a big southerly buster for 7-8 days time. Prolonged and moisture laden. Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

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When will we see our first cold snap?

When will we see our first cold snap?

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