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When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 18:38
by nzweathercentre
Been so warm lately... Looking foward to winter arriving. No major cooler snaps in the near future with the latest run of the GFS
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 18:57
by NZstorm
Need to see some ridging get down into the southern oceans for decent snow chance. (cold air dredge)
Current blocking pattern is the reason its so warm. The block looks like it will be replaced by a zonal pattern which still means above average temps.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 20:24
by TonyT
June 7th
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 20:50
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
May 18th
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 21:54
by Bradley
May 22nd for a proper cold snap
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 02/05/2016 22:00
by SnwAddct
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Tue 03/05/2016 05:49
by shovelopikis
in winter
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Tue 03/05/2016 08:34
by Storm Struck
Generally when the southerly hits or SSW, although if you mean when you might see it the winter precipitation may not fall until 2-3 hours after the initial wind change.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Wed 04/05/2016 15:38
by Razor
May 13th. It has to be, on a Black Friday. Surely.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Wed 04/05/2016 18:49
by NZstorm
Have to define what a cold snap is. I suggest 850mb -5C reaching Canterbury would be a cold snap.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Thu 05/05/2016 06:53
by Richard
A good dump of snow on the foothills would be a descent cold snap
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Thu 12/05/2016 22:37
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Getting closer to the date, Ive amended it to May the 18th and then from then it's downhill to winter.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Sat 14/05/2016 19:08
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Could now be Monday as a cold SW rips through?
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Sat 14/05/2016 19:53
by mikestormchaser
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Could now be Monday as a cold SW rips through?
Monday a cold upper trough makes it way up the islands. Heavy showers/ hail could be a goer
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Sun 15/05/2016 21:49
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
....but then, it could become milder again after that but not as warm as recent days, that we have had so far in May.
Re: When will we see our first cold snap?
Posted: Mon 16/05/2016 00:32
by snowchaser01
Yes Monday/Tuesday... a good SW flick by the looks. Some snow to 800m maybe for the skifields.
Looking ahead, GFS picking up a big southerly buster for 7-8 days time. Prolonged and moisture laden. Will be interesting to see what eventuates.
