Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

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Tornado Tim
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Round 3/4 now..... next cold pool will be kicking in on Wednesday but before that we have front thats coming through :)

Metservice wrote:Late Tuesday afternoon and during the evening an active front moves from the Tasman Sea over the North Island and northern South Island.

There is a high risk of thunderstorms with this front in the west from Northland to Taranaki. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr, strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, and small hail. In addition, there is a low risk that some of these thunderstorms could become SEVERE, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h and the chance of a damaging tornado. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms across Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty from evening.

Unstable northwesterlies affect central New Zealand behind this front. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Waikato to Taranaki, also Horowhenua Kapiti Coast and northwest Nelson. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr, strong wind gusts of 90 to 110 km/h and small hail.

A low risk of thunderstorms extends over the central North Island and Wellington,also northern Marlborough, Nelson and Buller.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
756c-154dc32d700-154e2a2ca00-154dc960640.gif
Looking at the Lightning activity out in the Tasman, thats the front thats coming to greet us next evening, Looking good so far. Perhaps not as dynamic as the last few fronts thats have come through, but the params a very good for some form of Thunderstorm activity as the front passes through with good temp differentiation pre/post front and good resultant forcing. Front will sit on the southern exit region of an upper level jet as well which will enhance convection on the front due to increased divergence the jet will provide.
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

This will be round 4, no? I recall two evening ones and one day time one.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, MS recorded 'around 60,000 lightning discharges' from those 3 T-storm events last week
(Mon evening in the north, early arvo on Wed, and overnight on Fri/Sat).

Meant to post these MS daily lightning maps on the last thread for posterity… :smile:
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Quite a bit of blown off anvils on that front.....activity has eased a bit overnight, should start to re-invigorate as it gets closer.
Next cold pool in the pipeline coming in the next 24 hours or so.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

thunder here just now :)
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Area51 »

A single clap of thunder across Papakura as well. Moderate shower and hardly a breath of wind.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

watched a very nice wall cloud with very strong updraft pass to my south
one of the better ones I have seen
it tried to produce a funnel as it moved to my south (1:10pm or so)...would be great if the met service had a high res rain radar...the normal web one does show an intense cell pass over Glenbrook..
I chased it...but it raced away towards Pukekohe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mn2WQn9 ... e=youtu.be
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by shovelopikis »

flashes and rumbles here but nothing showing on blitzortung?
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

I'm up on a hill at te hoe and can see a since lowering rain free base toward tauhei.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

shovelopikis wrote:flashes and rumbles here but nothing showing on blitzortung?
Most likely IC/CC Lightning which Blitzortung doesnt detect with the current gen of detectors in NZ.
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

The line off the coast is intensifying nicely.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Richard »

Great looking mammatus cloud here at the moment
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

Wow another very close cg. I've been very lucky this past week. This was about 2km away. Had that awesome dumping sound near the end.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yup, awesome Thunder and Lightning here.....
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

Omg right on top of us. No delay !!!! Across the road o think. Omg and another!!!!!
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

I would have thought blitzortung would have been more accurate than it is displaying. Plotted them miles away from here
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

that line certainly looked impressive on the rain radar
needs a few more detectors in the NI maybe?
just had a gust of 57 kts here (105 km/h) :)
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by David »

Huh, was that the front gone already? Just 1mm light rain here, thought the main part was still to come...
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

Grrrr one of those strikes has fried my non weather desktop computers internet. It was plugged into the router and it says it no longer has any internet connection hardware installed. Can event connect wirelessly.

On a positive note the weather computer is fine because it's on wireless.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:I would have thought blitzortung would have been more accurate than it is displaying. Plotted them miles away from here
Where on earth are you looking?
These strikes look quite close to you...... The second shot is Lightning error radius of the closest to you......
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Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

I'm looking at this below which is the same as what you have. That one you have put up is about right. Slightly too far SE and a few km away from me. That was the first. What about the other two right on top of me in the neighbours paddock across the road. Where are they? Because I assumed they are the other two strikes on this map and they are plotted miles away.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by GreggWard »

Woken several times between 4am and 6am from loud thunder. I can hear some distant thunder again, at the moment.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by kiwisk8er »

Some awesome thundestorms last night, was quite epic. Just heard some distant thunder about 10 minutes ago out toward the Hutt.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by shovelopikis »

Yes big storm here 3am woke everyone in the house up, felt like the house was shaking constantly for 5mins.
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Re: Round 3/4 Thunderstorms, Possible Tornadoes 24th-26th May

Unread post by jamie »

There are some ngarly looking cells approaching the west coast on the north island right now. Northland and Kawhia look to be the two spots in the immediate firing line.
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