General June Weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 29/06/2016 13:50

Weather clearing now. Grey Lynn showing 14mm last hr, 33mm for the day.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 29/06/2016 14:07

Would have been more than 14mm last hr here, some surface flooding around here , water across the road on Dominion Rd, Balmoral with some shops flooded.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 29/06/2016 14:14

12mm light rain in Howick today.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 29/06/2016 14:20

Photo, halfway down Dominion Road.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 29/06/2016 14:21

Torrential rain at Bombay right now. This downpour on top of persistent rain all day on top of a wet last 10 days means there is surface flooding. The rivers running down the hills are crazy. Vege growers are quickly loosing soil and nutrients in this.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 29/06/2016 14:29

A couple of the private weather station showing nearer 25mm in an hour with totals 50mm for the day. (Kingsland,Royal Oak).

Rain was the heaviest I have seen for a while.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 29/06/2016 15:22

looks like the rain band intensified as it moved into south auckland , checking the rain radar
the wind went SW here at the time

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 29/06/2016 15:43

Haven't seen this amount of widespread heavy rain for a while....

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 29/06/2016 16:01

Click bait snow forecasts now appearing for over a week away.

Sent from my Nexus 5

Manukau heads obs · Wed 29/06/2016 16:45

heavy rain light that and then a clearance to light winds sure clears up the atmosphere...could see in the distance crystal clear

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 29/06/2016 17:03

NZstorm wrote:A couple of the private weather station showing nearer 25mm in an hour with totals 50mm for the day. (Kingsland,Royal Oak).

Rain was the heaviest I have seen for a while.

Similar to what Mangere and Akld Aero recorded by the looks.
NIWA saying 25.4mm (exactly 1 inch) in the hour to 2pm, and 16.2mm in hour before that.

Nothing too heavy here... just 12mm today.

Edit: And Akld Aero recorded 26.6mm in the hr to 2pm, and 10.6mm in hr before that.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 29/06/2016 17:14

03Stormchaser wrote:Click bait snow forecasts now appearing for over a week away.

Sent from my Nexus 5

Forecasting a system 8 days out - that's low even for them

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Wed 29/06/2016 19:01

Its only been present in the last 1-2 runs hasn't it? Must admit looks cold!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 29/06/2016 19:45

Bradley wrote:Forecasting a system 8 days out - that's low even for them

8 days can be realistic IF you have got different models in broad agreement AND consistency from one model run to the next. In this case the EC doesnt show any significant coldness and hasn't for several runs (including todays 0Z), so I would be suggesting rain, and snow only at higher levels (which would be consistent with recent similar patterns). The EC has outperformed the GFS significantly in the last month or two with these low pressure systems.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Wed 29/06/2016 19:59

There seems to of been a trend lately of moisture rich cold systems that start off potent and end up seriously down played. Is this quite common for GFS?

tunster · Unread post by **tunster** » Wed 29/06/2016 21:25

TonyT wrote:
Bradley wrote:Forecasting a system 8 days out - that's low even for them
8 days can be realistic IF you have got different models in broad agreement AND consistency from one model run to the next. In this case the EC doesnt show any significant coldness and hasn't for several runs (including todays 0Z), so I would be suggesting rain, and snow only at higher levels (which would be consistent with recent similar patterns). The EC has outperformed the GFS significantly in the last month or two with these low pressure systems.

I think ensemble support at 8 days out is the key thing. Otherwise it's a bit lacking science-wise. The ensemble mean will not often pick the extreme events but it will provide broad support for them and the extreme possibilities will be provided in the probabilities taken from other ensemble members.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 30/06/2016 10:10

Metservice shows Auckland Airport got 52mm yesterday while Whangaparaoa picked up 15.6mm.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 30/06/2016 10:56

we missed that narrow heavy rain band here (which interestingly caused a brief SW wind change as it went to the east of us (i.e was a small low center then))
so only got 20mm here

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Thu 30/06/2016 11:05

Saw a video of the flooding in pukekohe yesterday from a drone. Certainly was quite a bit of water around

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 30/06/2016 11:41

spwill wrote:Metservice shows Auckland Airport got 52mm yesterday while Whangaparaoa picked up 15.6mm.

Not quite as much as the 65mm that flooded Akld Aero on July 15 last year, with 51mm of that falling in the 2 hours to 8pm.

Below is yesterday's 1:15pm radar image showing the narrow rainband moving SSE over Akld…

Manukau heads obs · Thu 30/06/2016 12:05

saw a video of the flooding in pukekohe yesterday from a drone

that car submerged in subway road...what an idiot...
to go under the railway, the road dips down under alot instead of the rail going up and over ,..and there are signs about flooding during rain

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 30/06/2016 12:46

25mm in an hour is a flash flood scenario in winter whereas in summer generally not. Depends of coarse on the state of the ground.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 30/06/2016 15:09

The flooding at Bombay was the worst I have ever seen there.

Check out the southerly in the Waikato. This wasn't forecasted. I was expecting a few showers this morn then clearing. We now have a slow moving band of heavy rain on the southerly front. Looks like I'll get more steady to heavy rain for a couple hours.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 30/06/2016 15:36

GFS was modelling a showery afternoon with a SE change coming through.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 30/06/2016 15:38

Cumulus/Cb visible out to the SE of here (non thundery)

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