General July Weather

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 29/06/2016 21:13

I think July's weather will be similar to Junes.
Not much happening down here but thunderstorms and wet weather for the North Island. I hope I am wrong.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 01/07/2016 07:55

Yep, like June, a nice cooler, clear anticyclonic spell to start to July…

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Fri 01/07/2016 08:01

Bit of snow down to Desert road this morning.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 01/07/2016 08:03

Nev wrote:Yep, like June, a nice cooler, clear anticyclonic spell to start to July…

I hope the latter half of July won't echo June - locally 102.9 hrs sun in 18 days, a record-setting pace - then for the last 12 overcast skies and plenty of rain with just 6.6 hours of sun, virtually all of it on a single day.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 01/07/2016 08:11

Was cold enough for puddles of water to freeze here. My deck is an ice skating rink with last nights rain freezing on it.

Cracker day ahead and good frost tonight by the looks.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 01/07/2016 08:44

I think July will be a month of Anticyclones and Lows, no big westerly pattern.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 01/07/2016 15:46

July looks to be the month that at least for the first 10 days delivers little for the South Island skifields

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 01/07/2016 15:55

Coronet peak been closed for a week now, the entire winter fest so big money losses there with at least 7000 people expected through. with global warming will struggle to operate in a decade or so being a relatively low altitude ski area.
Edit- been closed for 10 days now.

James J. · Unread post by **James J.** » Fri 01/07/2016 16:02

yes, by 2010 our children won't know what snow is.....

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” Dr. David Viner, a scientist with the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, told the UK Independent in 2000.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 01/07/2016 16:12

aardvark wrote:yes, by 2010 our children won't know what snow is.....

2010??

Manukau heads obs · Fri 01/07/2016 16:33

I think he means 2100
there will still be snow on the mountains...if you go high enough
but snow to sea level might be a rare event by 2100?

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 01/07/2016 17:24

It won't be if the next Maunder sun spot cycle comes into effect which has already started

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 01/07/2016 18:00

Bradley wrote:It won't be if the next Maunder sun spot cycle comes into effect which has already started

But thats only a 15 year long cycle is it not. I can see it being disastrous for the campaign to curb green house gases, that will be all the ammunition needed by the deniers camp to back up there claim that there is no such thing as globed warming.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 01/07/2016 18:23

Looking like our first frost of the season coming up tonight, clear skies and down to 7C already.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 01/07/2016 19:26

Richard wrote:
Bradley wrote:It won't be if the next Maunder sun spot cycle comes into effect which has already started
But thats only a 15 year long cycle is it not. I can see it being disastrous for the campaign to curb green house gases, that will be all the ammunition needed by the deniers camp to back up there claim that there is no such thing as globed warming.

Worth a read Richard: http://www.news.com.au/technology/scien ... 8ced31a4e2

Manukau heads obs · Fri 01/07/2016 19:35

it won't be if the next Maunder sun spot cycle comes into effect which has already started

it might might last 22 years say...a big minimum...and that will certainly slow down or even halt global warming
but then that will get going again after that...with still 60 years of warming before 2100
yes/no?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 01/07/2016 21:36

David wrote:Looking like our first frost of the season coming up tonight, clear skies and down to 7C already.

I see Kaitaia is forcasted to go down to +1deg, a deg colder than Culverden on +2 deg.

already on -1.3deg

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 01/07/2016 21:36

Yeah -2 here already

Sent from my Lenovo K50a40 using Tapatalk

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 01/07/2016 21:36

Bradley wrote:
Worth a read Richard: http://www.news.com.au/technology/scien ... 8ced31a4e2

Interesting

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 01/07/2016 21:51

There are a lot of off-topic posts in here for the first page of the July weather thread. Please either keep on topic or start a new thread for other subjects, if you dont the moderators will do it for you.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 01/07/2016 23:24

Good bit of strong Lightning going on in the Tasman with quite significant amplitudes, unfortunately the system will weaken tomorrow as it start to interact with the ridge on-top of us.

Although quite a few of us in the North Island will appreciate a decent dry spell, till around Wednesday.

Thursdays forecast next week even though a considerable time away is very interesting as most models have it in prognostic guidance already, potential for rapid deep cyclogenisis if the upper level analysis forecast stay on similar trend....

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 02/07/2016 08:57

That system coming into Northland tomorrow is in decline but the airmass is cold, seas still relatively warm, maybe a little bit of lightning in the far north. Also a waterspout risk.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 02/07/2016 16:51

GFS is starting to become quite consistent in forecasting a major cold front next weekend whereas EC wants nothing to do with it - will be very interesting to see what EC forecasts in the next run or two...I still trust it over GFS lately

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Sat 02/07/2016 19:06

Bradley wrote:GFS is starting to become quite consistent in forecasting a major cold front next weekend whereas EC wants nothing to do with it - will be very interesting to see what EC forecasts in the next run or two...I still trust it over GFS lately

Looks cold with 850 hPa temps of -9, that must be about a 200m freezing level..

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 02/07/2016 22:14

And once again GFS going for an extremely cold outbreak this weekend on the latest model run and once again EC is showing absolutely nothing, I have never seen this before with them both being so consistent over a few days with a particular forecast but differing so much to the other model

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