General July Weather

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 19/07/2016 08:42

If that were in Canterbury we wouldn't think Ominous, we would just think ,'what a lovely sunrise'

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 19/07/2016 12:33

TonyT wrote:
Richard wrote:Looking ahead to next Friday could the start of the spring westerly pattern be coming early?
Nope.

The pattern as a whole looks very disturbed Westley for some time and the people i know on the coast and Nelson say it's very spring like and unusual.

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TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 19/07/2016 14:17

melja wrote:The pattern as a whole looks very disturbed Westley for some time and the people i know on the coast and Nelson say it's very spring like and unusual.

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But it happens most years - we get a burst of westerly in the July/August period and people think its the start of the spring westerlies, only to get caught out when several cold outbreaks or a few Tasman Sea depressions come along, then the real spring westerlies start later in September and through October. I'm still picking some cold southwest periods in August, so I dont see this as spring arrived just yet.

The MJO has fired up at a low to moderate level and is expected to (roughly) pass through phases 2 & 3 over the next 2 weeks which are the westerly phases, then decay as it passes through the SW to S phase 4 in about 3 weeks time. So its more likely the current spell of westerlies is MJO induced rather than seasonal.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/07/2016 19:28

TonyT wrote: I'm still picking some cold southwest periods in August, so I dont see this as spring arrived just yet.
The MJO has fired up at a low to moderate level and is expected to (roughly) pass through phases 2 & 3 over the next 2 weeks which are the westerly phases, then decay as it passes through the SW to S phase 4 in about 3 weeks time. So its more likely the current spell of westerlies is MJO induced rather than seasonal.

I'm tending to agree with this

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 19/07/2016 20:17

Just had a heavy shower. Just been outside and can see the tower above the house just sitting there. The moon also is lighting up some CU just inland from here to. Small area of instability around with a southerly change tonight. Not really surprised given its actually quite mild out there and upper Temps quite cold!

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Tue 19/07/2016 20:40

Getting hit hard by that line on the radar. Heavy rain and large twigs off a neighbour's tree landing noisily on roof in the 70kph gusts

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jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/07/2016 21:22

That front was weird. It sounded much worse than it was. Sounded violent but 74km was my max gust. The avg wind only maxed out at 64. So nothing unusual for me really.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 20/07/2016 06:05

Agree with Jamie, no idea why, but that one had winds that seemed more bark than bite.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 20/07/2016 06:15

Bit of wind damage around the Waikato, including one report from Te Awamutu, which TV3 seem a little hasty to blame on a 'tornado'…

'Wild weather hits Waikato, knocking down trees and sending trampolines flying' - Waikato Times

'Tornado rips up tree, slams through building' - Newshub

Up here, MS had gusts to 96 km/h at Whangaparaoa last night (Manukau Heads up around 130 km/h).

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 20/07/2016 07:35

Newshub's follow-up story now says 'Wild wind' rather than 'Tornado'…

'Wild wind sends Te Awamutu shed flying' - Newshub

But not before the Hearld and TVNZ came out with these headlines…

'Tornado damages home as gale force winds wreak havoc across North Island' - NZ Hearld
'High winds slam Auckland Harbour Bridge, tornado hits home in Waikato' - TVNZ

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 20/07/2016 19:35

After a fine day with not much wind, the NW has suddenly arrived, with temperature rise.
Where's the SW change?

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Wed 20/07/2016 21:58

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:After a fine day with not much wind, the NW has suddenly arrived, with temperature rise.
Where's the SW change?

Going by the radar it's out at sea

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 20/07/2016 22:12

Yes, the SW has gone through but it's still fine, so no weather here with it.

SirSlingy · Unread post by **SirSlingy** » Wed 20/07/2016 22:19

Saw a moonbow (moon rainbow) tonight on the way down to ohakune. Didn't even know they existed. So cool!!!

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 21/07/2016 16:32

And people wonder why we don't trust government organisations when they go around trumpeting alarmist man-made global warming arguments based on dodgy data like this - the BOM in Australia have also been caught out on this kind of dodgy science in the last few years. Good on you Tony for pointing out their use of Kyle St data is dubious to say the least when trying to say that Christchurch is warming at a rate faster then the rest of New Zealand - no wonder NIWA have come to that conclusions based on data from a compromised site like Kyle St!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/clim ... ing-is-odd

Manukau heads obs · Thu 21/07/2016 16:39

June was the 14th month in a row to break global temperature records and July is on track to do the same
you really need to pull your head out of the sand Bradley

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Thu 21/07/2016 18:15

interesting documentary on Sunday[Greenland] Which really highlighted the effects of global warming . Its not a matter of whether it exists, rather how fast its increasing.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Thu 21/07/2016 18:23

Christchurch weather temps vary so much with wind direction rather than places like Auckland. Obviously if there is an increase in westerlies then CHCh with benefit the most from warming, [well Dunedin, cantebury,Kaikoura ,Blenheim, and Masterton to Gisbourne actually]If its just a general increase as a result of sea temps then the warming would be more even we can assume.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Thu 21/07/2016 18:27

This year 1 deg warmer than last year !!![tv 1 news 5 mins ago]

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 21/07/2016 18:51

SirSlingy wrote:Saw a moonbow (moon rainbow) tonight on the way down to ohakune. Didn't even know they existed. So cool!!!

Yes, Ive seen "Cloudbows" here when the sun is low in the sky.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 21/07/2016 18:53

Bradley wrote: Good on you Tony for pointing out their use of Kyle St data is dubious to say the least when trying to say that Christchurch is warming at a rate faster then the rest of New Zealand - no wonder NIWA have come to that conclusions based on data from a compromised site like Kyle St!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/clim ... ing-is-odd

Yes, I saw that aricle in the PRESS today. good on yer, Tony

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 21/07/2016 19:06

treetop wrote:This year 1 deg warmer than last year !!![tv 1 news 5 mins ago]

I think you mean, the average global temp so far this year is just over 1C above the 20th century average (according to NOAA). The first 6 months of this year are about 0.2C warmer than the first 6 months of last year.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Thu 21/07/2016 19:14

Sorry, missed part of that news caption.[had to replay it] ! deg still significant though and not to be taken lightly.Shame about the coral reefs too. I have dived off Cairns 4 times in the last 30 years and the changes are rapid and very depressing. Wake up non believers !!!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 21/07/2016 19:39

Could we have less evangelising and more objective discussion please. If you want to exhort people to have a certain point of view then please create a separate thread for it so people who just want to read about July weather dont have to wade through it.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 21/07/2016 21:12

Frosty night all ready, down to minus 0.2C, here, with the grass twinkling with frost from the outside lights.

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