Possible snow to low levels 30th July-1st Aug

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 27/07/2016 07:17

mikestormchaser wrote:
Bradley wrote:Looking at the models this looks to be one of the driest cold changes I can remember for inland Canterbury, reminds me of the late May 2013 event where we got 0.5mm in Sheffield for the entire event!
Colder the air the drier the air really. -38 at 500mb on Sunday! Should be a low topped CB around though that could produce a lightning strike or two

Polar air can not carry much moisture. But it can still produce heavy snow fall if the flow is onshore.

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Wed 27/07/2016 10:57

petem8nz wrote:Just waiting for the Facebook forecasters to pick up on this and post it to the masses......
Northerly picking up in town now

Didn't take long

Hahaha yeah some people on that page have been getting annoyed cause they were getting it wrong a lot which is not surprising as they were using info from 7 + days out.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Wed 27/07/2016 12:48

jamie wrote:How is central North Island looking? To me it's winding back each run.

I'm considering heading down Sunday morning if it's going to snow in national park village or ohakune.

The general trend seems to be snow down to about 800m for majority of the day on Sunday. Looking likely for snow down to national park and perhaps Waiouru as for Ohakune we need to wait for a couple more runs I think.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Wed 27/07/2016 15:22

Latest severe weather outlook issued by Metservice at 3pm today. First time I have seen mention of snow on the map this winter. Far South and NI High Country are most likely to be affected.

Metservice wrote:There is the potential for snow below 500 metres at times from Friday to Sunday in Fiordland, Otago and Southland. At this stage, the largest accumulations are expected to be Saturday night and Sunday morning, and there is a low confidence of heavy snow during this time. Regardless of whether snow reaches warning criteria, the combination of strong winds and cold temperatures could pose a risk for stock.

Snow is also likely to affect higher South Island roads and passes at times through to Monday. Snow could also affect the central North Island high country Friday morning, then again Saturday night and Sunday morning.

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Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 27/07/2016 17:23

I think this system will deliver something surprising but early next week for Canterbury, not this weekend. That low off the east coast is really making things interesting in the models for Tuesday/Wednesday

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 27/07/2016 20:59

Bradley wrote:I think this system will deliver something surprising but early next week for Canterbury, not this weekend. That low off the east coast is really making things interesting in the models for Tuesday/Wednesday

Thinking the same.Tuesday looks more promising but a bit further out so could fizzle.Will be interesting how the modeling looks on Friday. $\:D/$

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Thu 28/07/2016 13:34

Could be an interesting few days for us, with snow forecast tonight and tomorrow, Saturday night and Sunday, and perhaps a possibility of another short burst on Tuesday

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Thu 28/07/2016 14:31

Looking quite good with that low to the east and 522 line in the right place and a Southern onshore wind flow = Snow to sea level

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Thu 28/07/2016 15:18

Severe Weather Outlook issues by Metservice today at 3pm regarding events this weekend..

Metservice wrote: A strong, disturbed westerly flow is expected to remain over New Zealand during the weekend. A complex low should move onto the country on Monday, then cold southerlies may spread northwards on Tuesday as the low moves away to the east.

A burst of heavy rain is likely in western areas as a trough crosses the country on Saturday, and there is a low confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria in Fiordland, Westland, Buller, the Tararua Range, Mt Taranaki and the hill country from Waitomo to Tongariro National Park.

Ahead of the trough on Saturday, there is a moderate confidence of northwest gales becoming severe in Wairarapa, then westerly gales are likely over most of the North Island behind the trough later Saturday and Sunday morning. For Hawkes Bay (south of Napier), the Tararua District and Wairarapa, there is a moderate confidence of severe westerly gales during this time, while for all other areas from Auckland to Wellington the confidence is low.

Meanwhile, in the far south, west to southwest gales are expected later Saturday and Sunday morning, and there is a low confidence of these becoming severe, especially about coastal Southland and Otago. In addition, snow is forecast to lower to near sea level in the far south late Saturday and early Sunday. Although confidence of heavy snow below 500 metres remains low, the combination of strong winds and cold temperatures could pose a risk for stock.

Snow is also likely to affect higher South Island roads and passes at times during the weekend. Snow will also affect the central North Island high country Saturday night and Sunday morning, and there is a low confidence of heavy snow above 700 metres.

Later Monday and on Tuesday there is the potential for snow to affect the east of the South Island and also the lower North Island ranges, but at this stage warning amounts look unlikely.

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SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Fri 29/07/2016 07:26

Reports of 60cm in the last 24 hours for Ruapehu giving a 1.5m base. Models suggest another 60+ for the next 2-3 days is easly achievable. Wow how things changed over the course of 2-3 weeks

Manukau heads obs · Fri 29/07/2016 08:00

yes..but high winds close the mountain..so you might be building a snow base..but you cant use it...

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Fri 29/07/2016 08:35

Won't be windy forever

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Fri 29/07/2016 09:23

I'm liking this forecast for us in Southland!! Bring it on!

HEAVY SNOW WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Fiordland and Southland
FORECAST
Showers are expected to turn to snow above 200 metres during Saturday afternoon and evening, then to near sea level at night, especially in heavier showers. In the 12 hours from 9pm Saturday to 9am Sunday expect 10 to 20cm to accumulate above 200 metres, especially about Southern Fiordland, with lesser amounts to near sea level.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 29/07/2016 15:16

A few weaker CBs about inland today, very cold looking with mamatus and some hail shafts.
If anything tomorrow provides Canterbury with a semi decent thunder/hail set up, surface temperatures prior to the change are around 15c-16c with upper temperatures of around -30c mid afternoon.
Low risk is about right given the time of year, but im leaning towards moderate risk as this is quite a decent outbreak.
Probably Ashburton to Banks Penninsula even Christchurch should catch this mid afternoon to evening, snow lowering to 250m overnight in any rain activity.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Sat 30/07/2016 16:52

Gust front just hitting here.

Karliosis · Unread post by **Karliosis** » Sat 30/07/2016 17:00

Gust front approaching Christchurch just before 5pm

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sat 30/07/2016 19:26

Has been snowing in Qtown this afternoon, have had brief snow here too

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 30/07/2016 19:31

Drove home along Thompsons Track on the way home from Geraldine ( where we have bought a house so will be moving there in the future from here) and following a nice gust front from the south. Looked good with the sun from the west, which had clear skies, making it look more dramatic than what it was. I was going to stop to take some photos, but as we had to rush home and feed the chooks before it got dark, I didn't bother.
It did accelerate over us and was well to the north when we got back home.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 30/07/2016 19:43

It was a nice gust front good to see something for once, abit of rain and strong cold winds.
Also had a brief heavy hail shower half an hour ago, seems to be a few hail cannons out there now could be a rumble thrown in.

hozza95 · Unread post by **hozza95** » Sat 30/07/2016 20:23

Heavy snow now falling here. Could hang around for a while too

Talbotm · Unread post by **Talbotm** » Sat 30/07/2016 22:46

Metservice have a heavy snow warning for Taumarunui. Surely this is a miss print. Its only 170msl there???

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 30/07/2016 23:23

Remember tauramanui is a area not a just a town. There is some very steep country around there.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Sun 31/07/2016 07:34

Heavy snow on the Desert Rd this morning, freezing level should be around 500m-600m this morning in Central NI. Reports coming in of 30cm+ of fresh dry snow at Ruapehu, that makes about 1.4m of new snow in the last 4 days. Two weeks ago there was a 20cm base, they are now showing 200cm, Im due to head down in 10 days $\:D/$

(Desert Road)

current.jpg

(Waiouru 800masl)

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jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 31/07/2016 07:42

I'm supposed to be heading down today. Won't get there by the looks so will head down tomorrow if I can. But realistically it looks Tuesday morning.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 31/07/2016 07:44

certainly colder now..10C here this morning with a strong SW wind

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