Complex low pressure system & cold outbreak 3rd-8th August

[Razor]

-3 clear frosty morning in Christchurch

[Richard]

Slow falling flakes here now, 0.6deg at the moment

[Manukau heads obs]

despite people saying it wont happen its overblown
I see plenty of reports of snow to very low levels
(apart from CHCH which is being sheltered by the port hills, but not everyone in the south island lives in CHCH)
the amounts are not high due to the very dry polar air, but still ...its snow to very low levels, which was what was forecasted

standing back for the comments...

[Richard]

Yes, its just that its a bit later than what was forcasted. Its fulling snowing here now and its turning white. The unusual thing about this snow event is normally rains first then turns to snow, this just started with very small flakes that got heavier and heavier.

[TonyT]

All the forecasters said the coldest days with the most potential for low level snow would be Friday and Saturday, so whats happening today is fully inline with what was predicted. I just wonder what the media will write today, given that they have used up all their superlatives in the last few days on much less widespread snowfalls!

[SnwAddct]

EC back on board suggesting 28mm for Central NI tomorrow. Places like Waiouru, Taihape, Ohakune should see a good fall if it doesnt all get caught up in the Eastern Ranges..

[Bradley]

All the forecasters said the coldest days with the most potential for low level snow would be Friday and Saturday, so whats happening today is fully inline with what was predicted. I just wonder what the media will write today, given that they have used up all their superlatives in the last few days on much less widespread snowfalls!

Tony what are your thoughts with the Metservice warning of 30cm above 400m for Canterbury? Over the top or about right?

[mikestormchaser]

While we cud get showers today. I'm banking my money more on tonight and tomorrow morning for chch

[TonyT]

All the forecasters said the coldest days with the most potential for low level snow would be Friday and Saturday, so whats happening today is fully inline with what was predicted. I just wonder what the media will write today, given that they have used up all their superlatives in the last few days on much less widespread snowfalls!

Tony what are your thoughts with the Metservice warning of 30cm above 400m for Canterbury? Over the top or about right?

I would see that as on the high side for the next 36 hours, possible I suppose. Perhaps they meant for the event overall (i.e. including the last few days)? Overall I think they were too bullish on the early days of this event, but they were always saying the coldest days would be Friday and Saturday. Perhaps it was more the media interpretation of Wednesday and Thursday's forecast that was too extreme, rather than the forecast itself. Yesterday they seemed to be a little conflicted in that on some forecasts they were saying light falls possible to sea level but no snow in Christchurch, only on the hills. I guess that reflects the anticipated snow shadow of Banks Peninsula in a SE flow, but it sure confused a lot of people. It might turn out to be correct though!

[Orion]

Snow falling in Ashburton at present.

[TonyT]

Its interesting to see the rotation in the trough off the West Coast currently - I guess we have a decent lee trough forming over the ranges in the SE flow, and the incoming trough from the Southern Ocean has got caught up in that. Meanwhile the really cold air has arrived along the east coast .

[snowchaser01]

I am picking by midday, showers will make it into ChCh, what they fall as remains to be seen. Mike is right though.. more moisture tonight and into tomorrow.. therefore higher chance of something happening.

[matttbs]

Everything turning white pretty quickly in Ashburton

[LittleTreeHouse]

Huge flakes settling in Southbridge 30m asl

[trickytiger]

snowing and settling in Rangitata at 97m asl

[SnwAddct]

Severe Weather Warning issued by MetService AT 9:10 am 05-Aug-2016

Heavy snow for Canterbury today and Saturday, and for Hawkes Bay and Taihape from tonight to Sunday.

A complex low pressure system over the country is moving slowly northeastwards, and the low centre is expected to move to near about East Cape tonight, bringing rain to many parts of the North Island and eastern South Island, with snow to low levels in eastern parts of the South Island and east of the North Island.

The heaviest snow is likely about inland Hawkes Bay and eastern Taihape, where 40 to 50cm of snow could accumulate above 400 metres, with 1 metre or more possible in snow drifts, from tonight to early Sunday morning.

Snow should continue in the Canterbury Plains near the foothills, and Kaikoura Coast and hills, where 15 to 25cm of snow could accumulate above 400 metres during today and Saturday.

Heavy rain is expected about the coastal Hawkes Bay from tonight to early Sunday, where 150 to 200mm of rain could accumulate from this evening to early Sunday morning

Heavy snow can cause major distruption to transport as well as significant stress to livestock, and could damage powerlines. Blizzard conditions are also likely in exposed areas of the North Island. Heavy rain has the potential to cause rivers and streams to rise rapidly, and may produce slips and surface flooding.

[snowchaser01]

Latest forecast on the ChCh Rural page on Metservice: "Occasional showers from late morning, with snow down to 200 metres and some flurries to sea level at times. Showers becoming more persistent this afternoon. Cold southeasterlies."

[einzack]

We've had a couple more snow showers pass through this morning after the initial small dump overnight. School is closed for the day.
Currently 0.6°C.

[Orion]

Mr Sun shining here for now

[snowchaser01]

From Niwa: "However, a better chance for accumulating snow in Canterbury will occur on Friday night into Saturday morning as heavier precipitation enters the area. When you wake up on Saturday morning you just might see a covering of fresh snow on your car and lawn!"

[Orion]

Spy reports it "snowing merrily" at Ashburton Forks at the moment.

[jamie]

I'm in the right spot this weekend for a big dump according to the warning. Can't wait.

[Razor]

Its trying really hard to brew something up around the City. looks like it has us surrounded but BP still does its shelter thing. Have heard first hand reports of snow in Southbridge and Leeston, so that's not far away. Someone at work said they'd heard it was snowing in Amberley too...Tony?

[melja]

Was snowing hard coming through Greta Valley very early this morning.

[melja]

Seems more a south Canterbury thing which goes against the warning, very wet down Timaru way.

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