Complex low pressure system & cold outbreak 3rd-8th August

[Bradley]

I see Metservice has now change the forecast for Christchurch tomorrow from possible snow in the city to just “snow about the hills”, just 1 more downgrade, they’re beginning to add up with this system now!

[Razor]

IMHO this system has been totally overblown in the past two-three days by all facets of mainstream media. It is winter and nothing that unusual has happened here. Even if we get a flurry or two its still nothing to be having the level of screaming headlines over

[Richard]

If the radar could pick up the rainfall rate for north of Amberley would be mostly blue, getting a good steady sleety rain. Temperature going down again, was 6deg at 11.00 am now 3.9.

[mikestormchaser]

I see Metservice has now change the forecast for Christchurch tomorrow from possible snow in the city to just “snow about the hills”, just 1 more downgrade, they’re beginning to add up with this system now!

Metservice change there forcast left right and center. They have done it in past and the next day it's been snowing to ground level. And they nowcast it back again. I'd be still sticking to sleet and possible snow tomorrow and overnight fri.

[Dean.]

Sleet falling in showers here in town at 109 metres.....3.4 degrees at 2pm

[Richard]

Sleet falling in showers here in town at 109 metres.....3.4 degrees at 2pm

Goes to show you that the snow level is another 120 m higher here

[Richard]

The low to the west of Westport has a tight spinning center as it moves NNE

[Dean.]

The colder air gradually pushing in from the southeast as Tony mentioned earlier.Though not a lot of moisture around.

[LittleTreeHouse]

We have rain with a few floaty flakes in Southbridge

[Razor]

A chilly but ultimately mostly sunny day here in the Big Smoke since late morning

[mikestormchaser]

Sat morning now looks better for snow to ground level.

[melja]

the front is moving quickly ahead of the low off Foirdland , onto westland
and will encourage a new replacement low center to form east of the alps once it cross over
and
as that happens,i.e as the barometer drops, you will get the warm advection setup

so, keep an eye on your barometer , people in Canterbury

why right it off before it has even started?

could not have said that better myself.

That assumes the low centre will cross the Alps. If it did I would agree with you, but I dont think it will, the upper level dynamics won't support that, its going to get steered north-eastwards towards Auckland. The trough development off the SI east coast will be too far away to have much if any impact. Still a very cold SE flow, and still likely to bring snow to low levels, but not quite the killer punch it could have been IMHO.

Oh, and I'm not trying to write it off, just trying to inject a bit of realism into the hysteria the media have whipped on this one, eg the below front page of Stuff. "Many southern Kiwis waking up to a whiteout"? Many? Really? What will they write when it does actually snow where people live?!!?

Oh how you were so right Tony, well to the east and having little impact. Good job

[Razor]

Clear frosty night ahead, ice on the ground already

[SnwAddct]

Interesting the variations in models for moisture levels for Mt Ruapehu. GFS still going with 50mm overnight Friday into Saturday with EC going for 2-3mm..

[Razor]

Interesting the variations in models for moisture levels for Mt Ruapehu. GFS still going with 50mm overnight Friday into Saturday with EC going for 2-3mm..

Lol it starts again....

[jamie]

I'm heading down to Taihape tomorrow. Will be at 700m on the Napier Taihape road so should get some snow there. The MS 3 day map is showing heaps of moisture (not sure which model they have chosen to use)

[SnwAddct]

That sounds like fun, Metservice is showing the snow icon for Taihape for the next 3-4 days..

[matttbs]

The latest warning by metservice has upped the amount of snow from 20cm in 20 hours to 30cm in 30 hours above 400m

[Razor]

The latest warning by metservice has upped the amount of snow from 20cm in 20 hours to 30cm in 30 hours above 400m

I am extraordinarily sceptical

[Thunder081]

Seen some cool low's spin off Canterbury over the years like this one on 28-4-14: https://flic.kr/p/KJRbh5
Who else keeps rain radar images?

Wow! That is awesome!!!

Cheers, always nice to go back and look at past weather.

[snowchaser01]

There seems to be some shower development to the SE of Banks Peninsula... a start i guess! very chilly out there too!

[Ice Maiden]

Light snow falling and settling in Dunedin almost to sea level.

[snowstormwatcher]

0.5cm snow on the ground overnight here in south canterbury at 100m asl. light snow showers falling now.

[Bradley]

The latest warning by metservice has upped the amount of snow from 20cm in 20 hours to 30cm in 30 hours above 400m

I am extraordinarily sceptical

I notice they snuck in and changed that warning from a start time of 3am for the snow to start falling to 6am when they realised 3am was just completely off the mark!

[einzack]

We've got snow settled here at 20m asl just north of Dunedin. Not sure when I came down as not snowing now, and it's not a lot, but enough to get the kids excited. Start of school delayed and road into Dunedin is closed. Feels a bit like winter today!