Complex low pressure system & cold outbreak 3rd-8th August

[Razor]

Promising?

[ryant1234]

I just had some tiny hail in Somerfield, it wasn't a heavy fall.

[TonyT]

Its trying really hard to brew something up around the City. looks like it has us surrounded but BP still does its shelter thing. Have heard first hand reports of snow in Southbridge and Leeston, so that's not far away. Someone at work said they'd heard it was snowing in Amberley too...Tony?

We had a brief and fairly light snow shower around 9.15am this morning, and a few very light misty sleet spells since but nothing to get excited about.

[matttbs]

Had just over a cm settle in Ashburton but has since melted

[Richard]

Can you see the Waipara hills to the NE of you Tony, heavy covering there.
Went to Rangiora where there was sunshine, get back again to snow again

[mikestormchaser]

very cold air but very dry, showers coming ashore seem to be weakoning before they get close to say west melton, im still confident of something tonight or early hours of tomorrow.

[Richard]

Very cold air alright, 1.6deg here

[TonyT]

Can you see the Waipara hills to the NE of you Tony, heavy covering there.
Went to Rangiora where there was sunshine, get back again to snow again

Yes, heavy cloud all day here, with a bright blue band to the south and a dark band to the north!

[Chris W]

Decent CBs going up southwest of Middleton now and we had a sleet shower half an hour ago. Hoping for at least some snow tonight or even tomorrow night but not expecting more than a light dusting.

[joecam]

Snowing heavily at Tomore approx 10 K's north of Greta Valley 1 Degee. Snow is settling on the road Cheviot is 3 Degrees and no snow.

[melja]

Couple of big snow flakes in Rangiora but mixed with rain of course.

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[MoorfNZ]

Decent snowfall started here near Sheffield.

[TonyT]

Just had an intense shower of ice pellets (hard small hail). Thats a sign of some warming in the lower layer as it means the snow has melted and then re-frozen on the last part of its journey down.

[bmo]

Rain with some snowflakes here in Lincoln. Been sunny and blue skies for most of the day so far.

[Bradley]

Had a couple of rain showers in the CBD today, quite a long way from even sleet though!

[tich]

Light hail in St Albans now. Had a bit of sleet at work (Boys High) about 1pm - obviously peninsula rain shadow effect breaking down. (why Chch missed out on snow, unlike rest of Canterbury early this morning)

[Razor]

Faintest hint of a snow flurry in town right now, but these showers are really lacking in moisture

[Richard]

Nothing much is going to come of this system apart from the odd shower. Cant see anything close to 30cm for areas over 400m in the next 12 hours.

[Razor]

Nothing much is going to come of this system apart from the odd shower. Cant see anything close to 30cm for areas over 400m in the next 12 hours.

I've been scratching my head for days wondering the same thing...it seemed well predictable based on the sorts of analysis that Tony provided as the system progressed.

[TonyT]

Keep an eye on that circulation west of the West Coast, it looks to me to be getting stronger and sucking more air into it, some hints on the latest satpix of the flow off the North Canty and Marlborough coasts tending more northeast than southeast. This could be where a period of heavier overnight precip comes from. (it might just induce a bit of warm advection snow to come into Canty north of about the Peninsula...). Warm advection in a relative sense (i.e. pretty cold air overriding bitterly cold air).

[Orion]

Snowing in Ashburton again

[Richard]

Interesting Tony we'll see what happens hey

[shovelopikis]

Large snowflakes started falling with rain 300masl, settling at 600m at the minute. Wasn't expecting that!

[Manukau heads obs]

there is a new low center taking over just off Taranaki (the westerly wind is gradually increasing here)
easy to see on the rain radar
and that will make the trough axis to the south west of that rotate up and and around it..which is what the models have been showing will happen
and it also increase the shower activity overt the southern NI and northern SI (which is what is happening slowly more and more you can see on the sat image and rain radar)..which will be where the snow forecasts are coming from for Taihape

[tich]

Very interesting scenario for North Island with very cold air from south mixing with low pressure - major snow looking likely for central NI and Hawkes Bay, esp. areas like Napier-Taupo road and Ureweras.