NZ Weather Forum

Looking like quite a warm, summery start to spring.
Could even be some record Sept temps around Sunday/Monday?

Its certainly looking warm and dry for a prolonged period in the areas where we were hoping that might not be so

I hope not here
Looks very uneventful to start off Spring, anyway.
hope it changes in the months ahead

It seems to be quite misty here at the moment. Very fragrant "New Zealand bush" smell in the air
7.1deg.

Certainly is this morning, lovely warm NW wind arrived about 8.00am

Might be time to change the banner image on this forum? Says something about the winter we have had when it never got changed from Autumn

BeaconHill wrote:Might be time to change the banner image on this forum? Says something about the winter we have had when it never got changed from Autumn

Maybe ,we never had a winter??

Stupid headline from the NZ Herald this morn, 'Sodden Saturday in store for Auckland'...

Auckland forecasts for today were for never more than the risk of a few showers.

Interesting spongy looking SC layers extending out from the SW late this afternoon and this evening with some elongated billowing extensions stretching out through the clear sky.

Mod Note:
Have moved all the posts relating to the next few day's 'southerly blast' to NZstorm's new thread.
Also amended that thread's date-range.

Weather looks sunny for the next fews days.

Update on ENZO.

ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favoured (between 55-60%) next 6 months.

Lovely spring day with no wind and 20deg, a 23 deg spread between the low and high today

Richard wrote:Lovely spring day with no wind and 20deg, a 23 deg spread between the low and high today

Yes some here -2 to 20 degrees with some high cloud this afternoon, just stunning.

NZstorm wrote:Weather looks sunny for the next fews days.

Update on ENZO.

ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favoured (between 55-60%) next 6 months.

I remember about 3 months ago someone on this forum saying that NOAA were behind the play, and that La Nina had already arrived! And now here we are.
I think 2013/2014 was another case where there were initial predictions of an El Nino spring and summer, that never eventuated. Or perhaps it was another year.

With neutral positive we can still see some la Nina like affects.

Last time we had ENSO Neutral we had a terrible Thunderstorm Season over the Summer with really warm upper level temps, hopefully it doesnt repeat.

Neutral (non El Nino/La Nina) summers can either be good or crap and I don't know which it will be

Observed interesting Mammatus cloud here, half an hour ago.

Nice day here for most of the day, couple cloudy periods. We are shifting house this Saturday and it doesn't quite look like the weather we were hoping for. Is it likely it will be raining for the most of the day in Waitakere? Heavier in AM or PM? Such a tricky thing to plan

SnwAddct wrote:Nice day here for most of the day, couple cloudy periods. We are shifting house this Saturday and it doesn't quite look like the weather we were hoping for. Is it likely it will be raining for the most of the day in Waitakere? Heavier in AM or PM? Such a tricky thing to plan

GFS shows an am frontal passage whereas ukmet pm.
Its a fast moving front but potentially active.

On the topic of ENSO nuetral, this is very good news for Auckland's summer. The earlier modeled La Nina can kill off a summer like we suffered in 2011.

Regarding Saturdays rain I would wait until Thursday for the timing of it.

The 2011 Summer was poor for many areas.( la Nina)

Are you sure you don't mean 2012? Temps were well down that summer. In 2011 it wasn't that bad at all, apart from the two heavy rain events in late January.

David wrote:Are you sure you don't mean 2012? Temps were well down that summer. In 2011 it wasn't that bad at all, apart from the two heavy rain events in late January.

Yes 2012 was the lousy Summer
The 2011 Summer was La Nina as well and okay.

Friday looking a warm day across the country.

Could be some decent rain overnight tonight for Auckland.