Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

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Tornado Tim
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Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Looking at several models, it seems we are entering into an extended period of rather interesting weather next week with a trough forecast to be stuck in place over the North Island for a few days.

If this forecast remains, we are most probably going to see the first spring/summertime convection setup. With unduly cold temps forecasted next week, could well be very interesting.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Richard »

Looking even possibly unstable for inland areas of the SI Wednesday too.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

Great to see a system there for a week providing thunder chances.

I may go for a drive north tomorrow. Upper levels are looking good, comes down to surface parameters.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by spwill »

At this stage Monday afternoon over Northland might be interesting, frontal Junk has moved out the way with some very moist air in sunshine.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

spwill wrote:At this stage Monday afternoon over Northland might be interesting, frontal Junk has moved out the way with some very moist air in sunshine.
I think this will happen Sunday afternoon. 12Z Ukmet was showing drier air aloft over Northland tomorrow pm.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by spwill »

See how it looks in the morning, GFS showing warm humid air mass over northern NZ tomorrow.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

Thunderstorm chances over Northland today look highly conditional on surface heating.
18C will produce about 250 CAPE whereas 20C will yield about 500+ CAPE.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by spwill »

Northland catching some sunshine now, Whangarei on 20C.
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Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by jamie »

Looks like a line between kaipara harbour and whangarei
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like a low center passing right over us here...going by rain radar
50mm or so here
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Richard »

Been getting some good steady rain here most of the afternoon
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

we are stuck in a rain band that keeps on forming right over the top of us..
60mm here now total
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

Went for a drive to Kaiwaka this afternoon and observed tropical style downpours but non thundery.

I see the Pinnacles on the EW site has had over 200mm last 24hrs.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

67mm or so here now..it just wont stop..the last remaining rand bands are stuck in place...
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like you should get more rain at times Richard over the next few days too
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

Pinnacles showing 380mm for event now. The Coromandel is certainly a wet place!
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Richard »

Manukau heads obs wrote:looks like you should get more rain at times Richard over the next few days too
Be so good if this light rain keeps up, was looking to kick the irrigation into gear anyday
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Nev »

NZstorm wrote:Pinnacles showing 380mm for event now. The Coromandel is certainly a wet place!
Yes, 380mm for the 48 hrs to 6am this morn, with 300mm of that in the last 24 hrs... 8-o
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

West Waikato poses the risk of storm tomorrow with the SFC NE and Easterly and broad trough of low pressure and cold upper level temps should see something pop up come mid-late afternoon.
No shear and easterly steer is somewhat weak, convection will be pulsy with potential slow storm movements.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:Pinnacles showing 380mm for event now. The Coromandel is certainly a wet place!
Approximately 700mm there in the past 7 days!
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by Richard »

:eek: wow thats a lot , dont know if we've had that in the last two years
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by spwill »

A sunny morning here, currently 18C, dewpoint 15C. Not looking like we will get convergence around here today but southern parts of the Auckland region may do.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by jamie »

The sky is quickly changing to my SW. The radar is showing development too.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by spwill »

Parts of South Auckland catching an afternoon shower.
Been a nice day here.
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Re: Troughs and Possible Storms- Sep 25-30

Unread post by NZstorm »

Glaciated cb to south but no lightning recorded.

Grey Lynn 20C today.
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