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Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 06:54
by Richard
The main areas of which the Met Service are forecasting storm activity today are the central parts of the country, with the highest risk from Waipara north to the Marlborough Sounds
Valid to: Midnight Friday 14 Oct 2016
Issued at: 9:08pm Thursday 13 Oct 2016
Updated at 9:08pm to increase the risk of thunderstorms with 10 to 20mm hail and heavy rain in north Canterbury and Marlborough from moderate to high during Friday afternoon. The low risk area for the Bay of Plenty has also been extended farther west.
An upper cold pool will move onto central New Zealand during Friday afternoon and evening, while a southerly wind change moves northwards through the area. This combination, as well as afternoon sea breezes in the Nelson area, are expected to lead to very unstable conditions over central New Zealand in the afternoon and evening.
In the South Island, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms about Nelson and a high risk in Marlborough and north Canterbury during Friday afternoon,with a lower risk of thunderstorms extending farther down into Buller, northern Westland and Canterbury. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr, and hail of 10-20mm diameter. As the thunderstorms will be slow-moving, it is possible there could be significant hail accumulations in a few places which could cause damage to crops, orchards and vineyards, as well as making driving conditions hazardous.
In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms is about Wellington,southern Wairarapa, Kapiti, Horowhenua, and coastal parts of Manawatu and Wanganui in the evening and at night when a southerly wind change moves north through the area. A lower risk of thunderstorms covers other southern and western areas from Auckland to Wairarapa from Friday evening, and also for the Bay of Plenty for a time in the afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that occur in this area will be acompanied by brief heavy rain and hail.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 07:00
by Manukau heads obs
good luck in getting some decent rain
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 07:23
by Richard
Yes , fingers crossed Brian, ive even put off going to CHCH today to stay about here.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 07:25
by Razor
Looks like most of the moisture is going out of the trough now.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 09:00
by Richard
This mornings update has the area of a high chance reduced and a low risk of severe added.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 15:14
by Richard
Certainly not looking like there will be thunder&lightning any time soon here, seems the action is now going to happen further north, but at least we are getting some rain.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 15:28
by Manukau heads obs
there is a replacement low developing right over the top of you Richard
"patience grasshopper"
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 16:23
by Richard
Manukau heads obs wrote:there is a replacement low developing right over the top of you Richard
"patience grasshopper"
Ok
sit back and wait
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 16:45
by melja
good rain in Rangiora in the last hour with 6mm and pissing down still.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 16:47
by Razor
Looks like Motueka hit pretty badly by hail this afternoon. Orchardists have had a rough trot up that way in recent years
http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news ... heavy-rain
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 17:24
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Just come online.
Just the usual drizzly rubbish here today.
Anything happening there???????
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 20:22
by BeaconHill
Some good bubbly build ups streaming off the Marlborough coast this evening south of Wellington
IMG_0356.JPG
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 21:17
by Richard
Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 22:48
by Dean.
Richard wrote:Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far
3mm here about time the tables turned
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Fri 14/10/2016 23:03
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
The lack of sunshine might of contributed to the lack of anything developing anywhere south of the convergence zone, just the usual boring dribble, whatever.
It's annoying for the NZThS to hear of thunderstorm (thundery) weather around the country, well forecasts of such, and all we get is 'clagg'.
Can't wait until we move to Geraldine. should be lots of juicy thunderstorms down there
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 07:35
by NZstorm
I think you could get a good summer storm season in Canterbury John. There seems to be a good run of cold upper level systems this spring and eventually they will start interacting with the sea breezes and daytime heating.
Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 13:52
by jamie
Thunderstorm in Napier right now. Has a good look to it. Down here for the weekend.
Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 14:32
by jamie
Absolute cracker of a storm here. Loving it!
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 15:29
by Manukau heads obs
did you plan that?
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 17:55
by Richard
Good work Jamie, i should have added the 15th as well to the topic
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 17:58
by Richard
Dean. wrote:Richard wrote:Up to 12mm of rain from this system so far
3mm here about time the tables turned
Yes , been a long time coming where there's been more here than down your way, still not enough to be useful though, two days of NW and it will be gone.
Re: Storms Central NZ 14th Oct
Posted: Sat 15/10/2016 21:13
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
NZstorm wrote:I think you could get a good summer storm season in Canterbury John. There seems to be a good run of cold upper level systems this spring and eventually they will start interacting with the sea breezes and daytime heating.
I hope so there, Steven.
This depending on timing and positioning of weather systems and other factors that go into the mix.
Will see what happens.
