Interesting maybe what November will bring especially with the lead up through to December and Christmas and the end of the year.
Not expecting much here but then you may never know.
An active westerly pattern onto NZ for at least the next 10days with cold upper level troughs in the mix .
I think there will be average to above average rainfall over NZ in November but drier than normal for northern NZ.
A weak cell past just to the NE, thunder heard three times, saw one CG that would have been 2kms away, not bad considering there was not even a low risk for here
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I thought there might be something this arvo. Not that I looked at the models for today but just the skies had a very onimous thundery look about it. Anyhow looking ahead sees some changeable weather over the next few days with cold troughs on the GFS
A cold upper system to cross NZ Sunday- Monday, something to watch for Tstorms.
I think the current negative Southern Annular Mode will increase the chance of cold upper systems reaching northern NZ next couple of weeks.
spwill wrote:A cold upper system to cross NZ Sunday- Monday, something to watch for Tstorms.
Looking like a shortwave crosses the upper North Island Sunday afternoon timed with afternoon heating.
A few heavy showers/possible thunder should pop up from Northland to Waikato due wind convergence.
Then the strong Tasman Sea trough approaching the North Island in the evening with associated front.
K index values 30 and lapse rates in excess of 6.5C along front suggest lightning very possible on the front!
NZstorm wrote:
Then the strong Tasman Sea trough approaching the North Island in the evening with associated front.
K index values 30 and lapse rates in excess of 6.5C along front suggest lightning very possible on the front!
Yes, That frontal system atm is very active, a good amount of lightning over the Tasman.
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