NZ Weather Forum

Interesting maybe what November will bring especially with the lead up through to December and Christmas and the end of the year.
Not expecting much here but then you may never know.

Unseasonably cold in Auckland this morning with 6C.

gfs showing a changeable pattern for the first half of November.

NZstorm wrote:Unseasonably cold in Auckland this morning with 6C.

Interesting, was only 9C this morning in Howick. Nice looking morning to start the month anyway

An active westerly pattern onto NZ for at least the next 10days with cold upper level troughs in the mix .
I think there will be average to above average rainfall over NZ in November but drier than normal for northern NZ.

Towering CU looks quite onimous out there this afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was a heavy shower later

Down to 2.1 yesterday morning, not unheard of but still quite chilly than what the temps have been as of late.

I'm picking that thunder will be heard any moment, getting so dark to my NW.

Going up all around Spreydon now, walk from work (light westerly in Middleton) to here (moderate easterly) was fascinating. Got to be a low risk?

A weak cell past just to the NE, thunder heard three times, saw one CG that would have been 2kms away, not bad considering there was not even a low risk for here

Nice Cauliflower Cu to the east with the sun shining on it later this afternoon.
Obvious a bit of a convergence going on there.

I thought there might be something this arvo. Not that I looked at the models for today but just the skies had a very onimous thundery look about it. Anyhow looking ahead sees some changeable weather over the next few days with cold troughs on the GFS

Mid Canterbury showing potential tomorrow for thunder/hail. I am looking at the shear there, not just the gfs LI's.

7 day rain model shows heavy falls for Westland. Not much precip for Auckland.

NZstorm wrote:Mid Canterbury showing potential tomorrow for thunder/hail. I am looking at the shear there, not just the gfs LI's.

7 day rain model shows heavy falls for Westland. Not much precip for Auckland.

Sunday looks interesting aswel

Mod Note: Bit belated but I've created a separate thread for yesterday's Dunedin to Chch T-storm events.

A cold upper system to cross NZ Sunday- Monday, something to watch for Tstorms.
I think the current negative Southern Annular Mode will increase the chance of cold upper systems reaching northern NZ next couple of weeks.

spwill wrote:A cold upper system to cross NZ Sunday- Monday, something to watch for Tstorms.

Looking like a shortwave crosses the upper North Island Sunday afternoon timed with afternoon heating.
A few heavy showers/possible thunder should pop up from Northland to Waikato due wind convergence.

Then the strong Tasman Sea trough approaching the North Island in the evening with associated front.
K index values 30 and lapse rates in excess of 6.5C along front suggest lightning very possible on the front!

NZstorm wrote:
Then the strong Tasman Sea trough approaching the North Island in the evening with associated front.
K index values 30 and lapse rates in excess of 6.5C along front suggest lightning very possible on the front!

Yes, That frontal system atm is very active, a good amount of lightning over the Tasman.

Very pleasant day so far, 21C with refreshing NE breeze in Howick. Hopefully some natural fireworks tomorrow, metservice showing a moderate risk.

First day with a slight humid feel, has been up to 24C at Greylynn, dewpoint 13 -15C, cloud /sunshine mix.

Auckland Airport got to 24C as well. Good to see the early signs of summer.

Has stayed dry for the city today, isolated late heavy showers/thunderstorms for North Auckland

unstable looking skies here this afternoon

There was a Thunderstorm at Leigh in the last hr with max rain rate 70mm/hr and total 17mm.

good upwind heating in a NWer for that area

Been quite active out in the Gulf since just after 6pm. Quite a few distant rumbles heard here…