NZ Weather Forum

NZstorm wrote:Looking like an overall disturbed pattern may continue through to the end of the month according to 384hr gfs. We are not getting any quality thunderstorm set ups though. Hopefully that will change.

This weekend is looking fine, particularly in the north.

The pattern is a dry one for Auckland with lower humidities.
The westerlies are sitting a bit further north than normal.

spwill wrote:

NZstorm wrote:Looking like an overall disturbed pattern may continue through to the end of the month according to 384hr gfs. We are not getting any quality thunderstorm set ups though. Hopefully that will change.

This weekend is looking fine, particularly in the north.

The pattern is a dry one for Auckland with lower humidities.
The westerlies are sitting a bit further north than normal.

I see some cold air moving up the country tomorrow but there's no trigger to get anything going. Monday at this stage is the next possible day and that's my bday aswel lol so it has to happen!! Otherwise pretty WNW

Metservice has a moderate risk now up the east of the south island today. This will be part of that cold air moving up. There is some good CAPE numbers in the gfs on the coast today to. But not much moisture, and the air looks very dry today, see what happens later..

Coastal thunderstorm at present off the S Canterbury coast

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03Stormchaser wrote:Coastal thunderstorm at present off the S Canterbury coast

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Yeah can hear serferics on the am frequency from that storm out offshore

You can see that cloud from here.
Shame it wasn't tomorrow because I'm heading off to Geraldine, tomorrow afternoon.

Some juicy-looking clouds east of me at the moment; the westerly wind has been keeping this system away from the land; wind here was strong enough to be rocking the parked car an hour ago.

Had a report of hail and thunder around the south of BP this afternoon.

Possibly a low system to affect NZ weather near to Xmas day.

Really starting to turn brown around here now after a few days of continually strong at times westerly quarter winds, looking at the next 10 days it could end up being a very dry Dec with only 9.2mm of rain so far this month.

Richard wrote:Really starting to turn brown around here now after a few days of continually strong at times westerly quarter winds, looking at the next 10 days it could end up being a very dry Dec with only 9.2mm of rain so far this month.

Drying out over the upper North Island now too. This SW pattern has high ET and brings low precip.

Yea Looks like this SW pattern will persist going by the GFS, along with some cold upper troughing.
500hpa Temp, 10m Wind, MSLP

lovely summers day with a 25.7deg high

Richard wrote:Really starting to turn brown around here now after a few days of continually strong at times westerly quarter winds, looking at the next 10 days it could end up being a very dry Dec with only 9.2mm of rain so far this month.

Very moist in Geraldine with 35mm in the rain-gauge since our last visit.
Had trouble moving lawns as they were very green and lush.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Very moist in Geraldine with 35mm in the rain-gauge since our last visit.
Had trouble moving lawns as they were very green and lush.

Would have been more than that too with evaporation

Models remain consistent with major 500mb trough crossing the country Thursday/Friday time frame. Perhaps an attendant thunderstorm/hail risk.

Christmas day looks to be dominated by high pressure. But some coastal low cloud, particularly Auckland.

Sill a bit early to be looking at the detail for Xmas day but it is looking SW flow/ settled weather.

Yes, well it should be non interesting, settled weather for Christmas Day as most people should be celebrating Christmas with family and friends, having a good time, not worrying about the weather.
It looks like the case for that this year.

A thunderstorm near Whangarei last hr, has stayed mainly dry here, I see 0.2mm at Greylynn.

Met Service extended forecast for Auckland shows 18-19C maximums 24th to 28th. Looking like El Nino style weather with southwesterlies. I suspect the actual temps will come in around 20-21C but still, it's not summer heat!

Quite a temperature drop with the SW change this afternoon, we reached 24.9C at 2.40pm in Howick, was down to 18C by 4pm.

Thursday looks like a potential thunderstorm set up for Otago and Canterbury. Cold upper air and wind convergances look on the cards. I'm expecting a dreary old NE day again today though. Not much higher then 20 today

Not getting much above 20C today, even inland, under full sun and light winds. Is the 850hPa temp @ about 10C, on the cool side for upper NI in mid December?

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mikestormchaser wrote:Thursday looks like a potential thunderstorm set up for Otago and Canterbury. Cold upper air and wind convergances look on the cards.

Looking like the system coming through Canterbury at night. Still would be an overnight storm risk with it near the coast I think.

Airmass not entirely stable over North Island too tomorrow into Friday. Ground is drying out here so we need the precip.

NZstorm wrote:

mikestormchaser wrote:Thursday looks like a potential thunderstorm set up for Otago and Canterbury. Cold upper air and wind convergances look on the cards.

Looking like the system coming through Canterbury at night. Still would be an overnight storm risk with it near the coast I think.

Airmass not entirely stable over North Island too tomorrow into Friday. Ground is drying out here so we need the precip.

Yeah I do see most of the feature does come in late evening but I reakon a storm or two could develop from 4pm. Surface winds look to turn onshore in the afternoon with convergances inland. Although the cold air aloft doesn't come in until late evening jet seems to be fairly strong aswel over the south island. One to watch anyway