General January Weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 17/01/2017 07:18

Still some uncertainty with Sundays low pressure system. A more northern track would help alleviate the developing drought in Northland/Auckland.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 17/01/2017 09:11

Yea I'm up at tutukaka and it is incredibly dry up here.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 17/01/2017 10:21

Tracking about half a degree ahead of January mean temp average so far here. Its been a very summer past ten days or so. Don't think these upcoming systems will do much for us in the eastern SI, maybe a bit windy though?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 17/01/2017 10:59

Razor wrote:Tracking about half a degree ahead of January mean temp average so far here. Its been a very summer past ten days or so. Don't think these upcoming systems will do much for us in the eastern SI, maybe a bit windy though?

Personally can't see any major effect, rivers may run higher but that's not unusual

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wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Wed 18/01/2017 08:16

When do you think the weather will improve down south?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/01/2017 08:52

jamie wrote:Yea I'm up at tutukaka and it is incredibly dry up here.

I visited Whale Bay on the Tutukaka Coast yesterday , looks especially dry up there.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/01/2017 09:02

wembley wrote:When do you think the weather will improve down south?

I'm picking the unusually disturbed pattern that has been affecting NZ this January will be easing back by late January.

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Wed 18/01/2017 09:51

spwill wrote:
wembley wrote:When do you think the weather will improve down south?
I'm picking the unusually disturbed pattern that has been affecting NZ this January will be easing back by late January.

It will settle down markedly from January 30 when school goes back. Guarantee it.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 18/01/2017 10:54

spwill wrote: I visited Whale Bay on the Tutukaka Coast yesterday , looks especially dry up there.

The North Island really has lovely beaches

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 18/01/2017 20:34

harleyb wrote:It will settle down markedly from January 30 when school goes back. Guarantee it.

Yeah, not sure why... just after I've finished moving all the Mobile Dental Units back to the schools

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 18/01/2017 22:09

spwill wrote: I'm picking the unusually disturbed pattern that has been affecting NZ this January will be easing back by late January.

Several Models including EC are indicating persistent upper long-wave polar troughing late Jan, going by this I wouldn't count out early to mid February being part of this rather odd seasonal behaviour either.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Thu 19/01/2017 07:09

Agreed. Sea temps will need to warm up around northern NZ for any tropical influence and this weather pattern will prevent it.Ah well ,theres always next year.!! Western Australia very green and lush currently

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 19/01/2017 08:59

Awful month so far here. Low sunshine record almost certain to go, along with with the same for the period Sept-Jan. All things considered, this would be the worst 5-month run here for this time of year since 1957-58 (that was Oct-Feb).

For those hanging out for a final improvement in February, here's a reminder of a past one, namely Feb 1958.

(summary from NZ Gazette climatological table and report, with comments of mine added):

February 1958: A wet month, with extensive flooding. It was also cloudy, warm and humid. Over the greater part of the country the rain was welcomed after dry weather in January, and stocks and crops benefited. In some inland districts of Canterbury and Otago conditions were considered too wet for sheep.

Rainfall: Rainfall was from two to four times the normal value in the Auckland province (except Gisborne) and also in most western and inland areas of the South Island south of Hokitika. From Kaitaia northward and in a small area around Hamilton totals exceed four times the average. In these areas it was by far the wettest February on record; and in Hamilton it was the wettest of any month in over 50 years of observation, Ruakura receiving 12.75”.

[Te Paki station,Te Hapua in the far north had 17.28”, almost 5 times the average.]

Heavy rain in the Auckland province on the 23rd and 24th caused unusually widespread flooding, affecting especially the King Country, the Kaitaia district, and the Waikato, Tongariro, Wanganui and Rangitikei rivers. The Auckland-Wellington railway line and main roads were closed for many days. Among the heaviest falls over the two days were 12” at Rangipo and 9.7” at Glenbrook, Otorohanga.

In the south, Milford Sound received a total of 69”, its highest monthly rainfall and not far short of the New Zealand record for a month of 73” at Homer Tunnel in February 1940 [since surpassed by a large margin]. The fall of 20.5” on the 12th at Milford was also one of the highest ever recorded in the country. The heavy rain extended to the Lakes district, and the Clutha River was in flood from about the 13th of the month.

Temperatures: Temperatures had been cooler than normal for the previous 4 months, but February was warmer than normal throughout the country. Departures were mainly 3F-5F, but were somewhat lower in eastern districts of the South Island.

Sunshine: Sunshine was more than an hour per day below normal, except in eastern districts of the North Island and on the Southland Plain. Over a considerable part of the South Island, from Central Otago northward, it was the cloudiest February on record, and in some places such as Nelson also by far the cloudiest summer month.

[Contrasting totals at Invercargill Aero (190) – the highest February total to date there!), and Nelson (128) - the latter almost 100 hrs below average. For most of the South Island and the southwest of the North Island, the 1957-58 summer was one of the worst on record from a recreational viewpoint, particularly in Central Otago and the high country from the Lakes to mid-Canterbury. The period October 1957 to March 1958 also fits this description.]

Sources: NZ Met. Misc. pub. 107 (Climatological table, NZ Gazette) and NZ Met. Misc. pub. 109 (Meteorological Observations) - additional comments by the poster.

Some rainfalls: 437mm (Te Hapua), 283mm (Auckland city), 177mm (Queenstown), 27mm (Christchurch). 33.0C maximum at Ashburton on the 24th.

Sunshine totals: Kaitaia 174, Auckland 160, Tauranga 176, Whakatane 190, Taupo 150, Rukuhia (Hamilton) 165, New Plymouth 154, Masterton 200, Gisborne 214, Napier 216, Paraparaumu 144, Palmerston North 168, Foxton 182, Wellington 168, Wanganui 157, Westport 101, Greymouth 100, Hokitika 112, Haast 88, Nelson 128, Blenheim 191, Mt Cook 109, Christchurch 125, Akaroa 138, Tekapo 150, Timaru 111, Waimate 94, Dunedin 117, Queenstown 150, Alexandra 139, Gore 160, Invercargill 190.

Regarding the sunshine readings, it was one of those months when some of the "extremities" do quite well. But the contrast between Invercargill's equal record high at the time, and record lows (at that time) at Dunedin and Alexandra was amazing. The weather sequence report mentions a stationary trough through Cook Strait from the 15th to the 19th, with rain being general except in the far south. In Invercargill the week 14th-20th produced an unusually high tally of 76.1 hours' sun (Feb. record is 78.3). A truly bizarre month.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 19/01/2017 12:06

I am classifying the summer in Auckland so far as poor. But its no where near as bad as one a few years ago, January 2012 I think where it rained a lot.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 19/01/2017 20:59

NZstorm wrote:I am classifying the summer in Auckland so far as poor. But its no where near as bad as one a few years ago, January 2012 I think where it rained a lot.

A cooler than normal Summer so far but sunshine has been around average with very few rain days. No gales.
Edit, Temps are not much below average but it has been windier than normal with lower humidity for a cooler feel.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 19/01/2017 21:40

currently running -1.8C colder than for the last 15 years or so here
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... taout.html

and also 7 knots higher average windspeed!

the horrible summer continues here

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 19/01/2017 22:23

Not counting today, NIWA's Mangere site has been runing about 0.8C below its 1981-2010 average this month, but Akld Aero only about 0.1C below average, with sunshine close to normal.

Last month they were about 0.2C below normal, but sunshine was about 113% of normal.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 19/01/2017 23:01

Cheers Nev.
Mangere and the Airport are on the cooler side of town for maximum temps in SW flow but I think the minimums are usually higher, the affect of having more breeze at night

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 20/01/2017 06:30

A couple of rumbles thunder heard here 1am, coming from W.

First thunder day here since October.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 20/01/2017 06:46

NZstorm wrote:A couple of rumbles thunder heard here 1am, coming from W.

First thunder day here since October.

Thats a long for you guys

In the last 6 months nearly all the thunder we've had have come on days where there's been no warnings given by the MetS. Saturday nights T&L was at least 30km further east of the low risk area

Manukau heads obs · Fri 20/01/2017 06:59

Most of NZ is running colder than normal for Jan so far
https://www.niwa.co.nz/static/climate/m ... p.png?1234
except those areas sheltered from the prevailing SW

Manukau heads obs · Fri 20/01/2017 06:59

also we have had no easterly winds here yet for January...which is unusual
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb/windrose.gif

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 20/01/2017 07:22

NZstorm wrote:A couple of rumbles thunder heard here 1am, coming from W.

First thunder day here since October.

Woke me as well, brief heavy shower here as well, first for a while.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 20/01/2017 07:35

Richard wrote:
NZstorm wrote:A couple of rumbles thunder heard here 1am, coming from W.

First thunder day here since October.
Thats a long for you guys

In the last 6 months nearly all the thunder we've had have come on days where there's been no warnings given by the MetS. Saturday nights T&L was at least 30km further east of the low risk area

The inland thunder season for the North island has been largely shut down this summer by the current pattern. But maybe February could bring a change.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 20/01/2017 08:22

When we first moved here we would get at least one to two storms per year that would develop in an area SW of Kaikoura and NE of Waiau, they would move slowly SW with the NE sea breeze into the Amuri area during late afternoon&evening, Its now been about 8 years since we had any from that direction, i really miss them as they were a great watch being so colourful thanks to the setting sun. Nothing better on a warm summer evening watching a slow moving storm.

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