General January Weather

[wembley]

So this weather pattern is not unheard of?

[TonyT]

So this weather pattern is not unheard of?

There's an old saying, "there's nothing new under the sun". And another one, "the weather is more reliable than people's memory of it".

[Manukau heads obs]

I do remember a Jan with alot of SW winds
but that was like in the 80s'
the early 90's also had alot of El nino years with alot of SW winds too

so it has happened before, but not for years

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

-Nice sunset tonight.

[NZstorm]

Looking like a warmer pattern about to arrive. And a run 30C+ temps in the pipeline, especially for the eastern NI.

Very cold 700mb temps -8C over Canterbury this afternoon as a polar trough crosses. If convergence can organise from onshore flow, a low topped cb/thunder/hail not out of the question.

[Richard]

Blowing a strong gale here at the moment, cant see the hills to the east because some narrow minded environmental vandal has decided to work up a paddock, hate to think how much soil is going out to sea.

[treetop]

Need to have a good NE setup for inland convection. As I mentioned earlier a stationary high over the Chathams and shallow low/trough to the north otherwise its not going to happen this summer. Another Month and it will be too late anyway .Flew up from Dunedin yesterday under a continuous sheet of altostratus at 6000m can expect more of this crap unfortunately guys !

[spwill]

I see plenty of fine weather ahead. The westerlies are further south now with a strong ridge across the upper North Island. A little unsettled for SW NZ though.

I drove up to Waipu Cove yesterday and the countryside still looks very dry.

[Orion]

Blowing a strong gale here at the moment, cant see the hills to the east because some narrow minded environmental vandal has decided to work up a paddock, hate to think how much soil is going out to sea.

It might all blow back again presently, if the SE breeze now here reaches you

[NZstorm]

Need to have a good NE setup for inland convection. As I mentioned earlier a stationary high over the Chathams and shallow low/trough to the north otherwise its not going to happen this summer. Another Month and it will be too late anyway .Flew up from Dunedin yesterday under a continuous sheet of altostratus at 6000m can expect more of this crap unfortunately guys !

I think May to October is the season for thunderstorms. I have given up on summer set ups, they are good when they can happen but every summer we seem to get stuck with almost permanent upper ridge.

[Richard]

Blowing a strong gale here at the moment, cant see the hills to the east because some narrow minded environmental vandal has decided to work up a paddock, hate to think how much soil is going out to sea.

It might all blow back again presently, if the SE breeze now here reaches you

Nope, never made it here , still a moderate to strong NW

[TonyT]

The change was very strong here, southeast as I have come to expect in these situations in North Canterbury, winds must have been near gale for 10-20 mins with the change as we got quite a lot of leaves and small branches off trees etc. There was a very intense rain shower about 5km inland near Sefton/Balcairn, but nothing here in Amberley.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. Interesting convergence line moved over here just before 4pm, with building CU congestus, moving the wind back from south to the NE, weak though, dissipating rather quickly though, although remaining rather hazy looking.
Some nice "Blow-ups" to the west later to the west but showing low level glaciations as well.
Very strong NW here in the early hours around 6am, with clear skies lasting for much of the day.

[Richard]

Yet another day of strong wind coming up, this is becoming the windiest summer since living here.

[Manukau heads obs]

otago must be heading for one of its coldest january for decades?

[spwill]

Wetter + cloudier than normal down Otago way as well.

[Manukau heads obs]

they use of an average of each days max and min
so that they can compare to data collected say 50 years go

the problem is with that, is that, e.g, this summer, the maximum temperature for the day is more of a peak, when the sun is providing the most heat
and then it cools off quickly from that

[spwill]

they use of an average of each days max and min
so that they can compare to data collected say 50 years go

the problem is with that, is that, e.g, this summer, the maximum temperature for the day is more of a peak, when the sun is providing the most heat
and then it cools off quickly from that

Also some parts of NZ have regular sudden temperature changes regardless of sunshine and time of year, eg eastern South Island with the southerly and NW changes. A problem with the using only the max and min temperature to find the mean is there will be variation according to weather patterns.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Sadly, there is a dry southerly change due through tomorrow

[Manukau heads obs]

I see that sea temperatures are now up to 2C colder than formal around NZ as well
(but the rest of the south pacific is above average)
that means that is unlikely Feb will end up being above average tempeature

[Nev]

otago must be heading for one of its coldest january for decades?

Yes, if the figures in this story on Tuesday are correct. Temps looking a little more normal for the rest of Jan though...

'It's cool, but don't write summer off yet: Niwa' - Otago Daily Times

Not sure where they get the 254mm in Jan 2002 from though, as MS's Octagon AWS has only been operating since the end of 2006 and both Dunedin Aero and Musselburgh recorded less than half that. Dunedin Aero and Musselburgh's Jan rainfall record was in 2000, with 188mm and 175mm respectively.

Also worth noting that last month Musselburgh recorded its 2nd sunniest Dec on record, less than half its normal rainfall and was the only main centre with (slightly) above normal temps.

[spwill]

Amazing how you do notice that cooler water when you go to the beach
Next week has a warm look to it in general for NZ, average to above average temps.

[Nev]

I see that sea temperatures are now up to 2C colder than formal around NZ as well
(but the rest of the south pacific is above average)
that means that is unlikely Feb will end up being above average tempeature

That dramatic drop in SST's was a direct result of the recent storms churning up the seas around NZ, so assume they will creep back up in the near future?

[einzack]

otago must be heading for one of its coldest january for decades?

Yes, if the figures in this story on Tuesday are correct. Temps looking a little more normal for the rest of Jan though...

'It's cool, but don't write summer off yet: Niwa' - Otago Daily Times

It's certainly been rather miserable down this way, but we certainly haven't been alone.
It's also the fact that it's been so windy which has made it seem that much worse I think.
And usually the cold summers down this way are caused by NE winds, which means the coast is cold while inland it's still hot, but the SW'er this year has kept the lid on the entire region.

A few rumbles passing overhead just now too. Big dark clouds approached which delivered some very heavy rain and thunder. Temp dropped from a tropical 16.4°C to 10.9°C in 15mins or so.

[Richard]

Summer here has been ok, plenty of sunshine but with no really hot days, but its about the amount of wind that has been the usual aspect of this summer.