Forum USA Trip 2018

[treetop]

Thanks RODALCO. As I can go at the drop of a hat I will see how the season goes over there, maybe can go later and catch the SW monsoon if its active or join one of the tours.

[NZstorm]

I can't commit as I have had other obligations come up. Its hard to sit a season out, thats the one negative about USA storm chasing, you get hooked on it. Every May you want to be over there!

[03Stormchaser]

I can't commit as I have had other obligations come up. Its hard to sit a season out, thats the one negative about USA storm chasing, you get hooked on it. Every May you want to be over there!

Made worse if it's a good year...

[Tornado Tim]

Unfortunately I am sitting this year out too, hopefully all the ducks will be in a row next year......

[treetop]

first good setup for quite some time in US [through Texas heading E/NE].

[spwill]

Possibly the quietest start to the US storm season I have seen. With a chase holiday the season only needs to be good the two weeks you are there.

[NZstorm]

Yes, its a very odd pattern over there. Its not a block, but Canadian highs keep dropping south killing off the moisture. But May is another month and the second half of May can really turn it on for supercells. Even in the quiet seasons, second half of May is worth chasing.

[tgsnoopy]

2013 was like this, was very quiet until the outbreak of May 15th to 17th, starting with the Millsap and Granbury Tornadoes in TX, the Granbury one was one we had to stop driving as we got a little too close to the action (Was so dark under that supercell). We all know what later happened that year, not sure if I'm pleased or upset that us breaking up after the Moore Tornado meant we missed El Reno.

[spwill]

It seems you only need some upper level SW flow from mid May and everything else falls into place. I think a progessive pattern is what you want to see in May, a sluggish pattern runs the risk of multiple days with no storms. The mositure problems of April will certainly not be there to the same degree by mid May.

[jamie]

Glad I'm not over there now chasing the big tornado outbreak setups. There is nothing for the next week.

This time of year usually sees some big outbreaks occur.

Fingers crossed mid-late may holds true to itself and produces slow storm motion and isolated cells.

[NZstorm]

April 2018 could be the first non tornado April for Oklahoma since records started. GFS currently showing zero twister potential for next 10 days.

[jamie]

April 2018 could be the first non tornado April for Oklahoma since records started. GFS currently showing zero twister potential for next 10 days.

Hopefully May makes up for it then huh.

[spwill]

Silver Linings 10 day close encounters tour started April 18th but it only takes one good day to make the trip successful.

Instability numbers in the GFS are insanely low for that part of the world for late April.

[NZstorm]

VLOG from the Tornado Titans. Summary of the storm season currently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KWYkSmk09Q

[spwill]

Might finally see the season getting underway early May, it will be interesting to see how the May pattern progresses this year.

[NZstorm]

Certainly a set up in early May for severe weather, perhaps tornadoes.

[tgsnoopy]

Hard to believe that Oklahoma might make it through April without a single recorded Tornado, most unusual. How does this compare to 2013? The 2nd half of May was extreme after a very quiet late April early May.

[NZstorm]

I think the quiet season so far will play into the hands of storm chasers with an active May. Most chasers book their vacations in May so thats the important month for chasing.

[jamie]

1st 2nd 3rd looking like Good chasing days according to gfs at this moment.

[spwill]

If you could be selective about the time frame to chase you would jump on a plane for the coming week, storms every day with 2 or 3 very good days in there.

[03Stormchaser]

Silver Linings 10 day close encounters tour started April 18th but it only takes one good day to make the trip successful.

Instability numbers in the GFS are insanely low for that part of the world for late April.

What a depressing tour this would have been this year!

[jamie]

Silver Linings 10 day close encounters tour started April 18th but it only takes one good day to make the trip successful.

Instability numbers in the GFS are insanely low for that part of the world for late April.

What a depressing tour this would have been this year!

Yea that’s the luck of the draw. 8 years ago I saw heaps of tornadoes on that very tour.

[NZstorm]

The one disadvantage with a tour is you are locked into a timeframe. And personally I would avoid April because the weather can be cold. I prefer later May for the summer conditions.

[jamie]

Moderate risk over there today. Really starting to get into the swing of things now.

Anyone keen to predict what we will arrive to on the 12th? Haha.

[NZstorm]

Looking like SW 75knots at 300mb spreading into north Kanas this afternoon with 850mb strengthening to S 45knots.
That kind of wind shear should produce some fairly intense supercells.