Possible "Bomb" cyclogenesis - Jan 18-20

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thats an awesome 12000th post, congrats John!

Thankyou Tim.
To keep on the topic, nice rain falling down, to which is needed.
and calm

[Richard]

Close thunder and lightning happening here

[Richard]

The wind never really got strong at all overnight, though has bought some handy rain with 11.8mm

[Manukau heads obs]

I see there are very strong winds in southland and of course wellington (but nothing too unusual for there just yet)
good band of rain moving onto the NI...better looking than originaly predicted?

[Manukau heads obs]

I see cape Foulwind, Westland, got 70kts overnight!
thats a high speed for there

[Orion]

Useful amount of rain here last night, pouring between about 10:30pm and midnight.
The feature that stands out to me about yesterday is the dull light most of the day, even when it was not raining. Must have been very thick cloud aloft? Are there measurements somewhere for ambient light from day to day?

[Nev]

I see cape Foulwind, Westland, got 70kts overnight!
thats a high speed for there

Think you mean Cape Foulwind near Westport, Buller on the West Coast though…
But yeah, that's around 130 km/h

A few more apparent max gusts recorded this morn…

148 km/h - Mt Kaukau
137 km/h - Rimutaka Hill Road
124 km/h - Le Bons Bay
117 km/h - Wellington Aero

[Bradley]

No gusts over 45kmh here so far, to say the Metservice got the wind warning a little wrong for Canterbury is an understatement

[Manukau heads obs]

Le Bons Bay as had 120kmh gusts
last time I checked that is in Canterbury

[Bradley]

Le Bons Bay as had 120kmh gusts
last time I checked that is in Canterbury

I'm talking about the plains, friends in Darfield and Sheffield with weather stations haven't recorded anything over 50kmh, I think that's safe to say those places could also be considered Canterbury

[Manukau heads obs]

but you know as well as I do that NWers in the canterbury plains are a fickle thing
sometimes the wind pressure works to create wind other times the pressure release is somewhere else (e.g banks peninsular or futher inland in the gorges etc)...its just how it all works out...not easy to predict

[Richard]

I dont think that is fair to criticize the MetS because the winds weren't as strong as forcasted in some areas.

[Nev]

MS saying 172 km/h gusts recorded near Mt Hutt, 98 km/h at Sugarloaf and 89 km/h at Fairlie.
Also 154 km/h gusts for the Rimutaka Hill Rd summit…

[Manukau heads obs]

WSW gales developing in coastal otago now

[RWood]

I dont think that is fair to criticize the MetS because the winds weren't as strong as forcasted in some areas.

Met service bashing has long been a sport in this forum ...

[03Stormchaser]

Le Bons Bay as had 120kmh gusts
last time I checked that is in Canterbury

I'm talking about the plains, friends in Darfield and Sheffield with weather stations haven't recorded anything over 50kmh, I think that's safe to say those places could also be considered Canterbury

Gusting over 60km on the plains at the moment...

[Nev]

Met service bashing has long been a sport in this forum ...

Hey, I wouldn't judge an entire forum by the opinions of a few! Can we keep this civil please…

[Tornado Tim]

I dont think that is fair to criticize the MetS because the winds weren't as strong as forcasted in some areas.

I agree with you Richard, Metservice does a blanket warning to ensure everyone who is in the warning/watch area is prepared for it.
Just because it didn't happen is not Metservices fault.

It always better to be prepared than be underprepared.
Metservice could be classed as negligent if they didn't warn the entire region, weather is a fickle thing and no amount of compute resources people throw at trying to model it will get away from the fact the weather dynamics can stray from model guidance in the smallest dimension causing no rain to become very heavy rain, or light wind to strong wind.
Thats why it always best to warn an entire region, to ensure peoples safety.

[RWood]

Met service bashing has long been a sport in this forum ...

Hey, I wouldn't judge an entire forum by the opinions of a few! Can we keep this civil please…

I wasn't suggesting it was that universal - but there are some who have been at it for a long time now...

[Manukau heads obs]

Winds really ramping up in coastal Otago now
973 hpa there...so the low bombed alright

[Tornado Tim]

Blitzortung is picking up strikes where GPATS is not, makes for a change.....

[Manukau heads obs]

Nugget point wind still increasing, 68 kt gusts there now

[Razor]

No gusts over 45kmh here so far, to say the Metservice got the wind warning a little wrong for Canterbury is an understatement

This is a somewhat unreasonable comment IMHO and 'close to the wind' for moderation! I was running on the Port Hills last night and it was definitely very gusty, I would guess over 80km/h at least. I see Sugarloaf got 98km/h

[Razor]

It was quite amusing to hear on several sources of media yesterday the rapid backtracking on the "Weather Bomb" naming convention. It was very refreshing to hear the correct information being disseminated in a number of places. Particular plaudit to Radio Live especially Alison Mau who was at pains to have the concept of explosive cyclogenesis/ bombing lows PROPERLY explained and the overused "weather bomb" phrase well and truly shelved.

I think this came about from the well worded Metservice facebook post on Monday.

Now lets see if mainstream media can grasp gust fronts, tornadoes, dust devils and microbursts... and forget the with mini along the way

[TonyT]

It was quite amusing to hear on several sources of media yesterday the rapid backtracking on the "Weather Bomb" naming convention. It was very refreshing to hear the correct information being disseminated in a number of places. Particular plaudit to Radio Live especially Alison Mau who was at pains to have the concept of explosive cyclogenesis/ bombing lows PROPERLY explained and the overused "weather bomb" phrase well and truly shelved.

I think this came about from the well worded Metservice facebook post on Monday.

Now lets see if mainstream media can grasp gust fronts, tornadoes, dust devils and microbursts... and forget the with mini along the way

Unfortunately today's discussion of hurricane force gusts has somewhat undermined this worthy aspiration...