Another Deep Low - Jan 21-22

[NZstorm]

A heads up from Metservice would've been nice

I did give Auckland a heads up, over an hours warning..as it struck here first, on the west coast
and I did post that info to the MetService FB page (which they replied too) and so they did have a window to get warnings out to do exactly that..tie down loose objects etc

Yes, that big pressure drop was the signal. I notice the airport pressure fell 4 hpa between 9.30pm and 10pm.

[Manukau heads obs]

we dropped 6hpa here in an hour
you dont get pressure drops like that without severe gales to go with it
the auckland area seemed to be in an exit area of the jet stream over the top of a warm front that was trying to push into the ridge of high pressure to the east...

also I have noticed it before...the area right at the end of an active upper level warm front can be very windy...which Auckland was...(there was lightning activity to the west of Kaipara...and the rain radar showed the rain was not as heavy to SE of the Auckland area..and the edge of the rain band had a long curve to it...like a jet stream curve..)

[spwill]

spwill - gosh, hopefully that'll be sorted quickly.
Best wishes to those dealing with the effects of this weather.

I can't see those lines being fixed quickly, atleast nine poles affected.

[spwill]

A heads up from Metservice would've been nice

I did give Auckland a heads up, over an hours warning..as it struck here first, on the west coast
and I did post that info to the MetService FB page (which they replied too) and so they did have a window to get warnings out to do exactly that..tie down loose objects etc
!

Where were Metservice last night ?

[Manukau heads obs]

they were watching the situation unfold..and could see the barometer drop occuring in real time across the area..
one problem is the wind speed at the Manukau heads is sheltered in a NE wind...as I am here...but we were getting 42 kt gusts regardless and then I started to get reports from locals of power cuts and loose items getting blown about (report of a BBQ getting blown into a house and breaking a window) etc...so I knew it was a good NE blow

there was watches out for severe gales for Taranaki to central plateau...but that would have based on model output..
what we had last night was something that developed relatively quickly across the area (although it did take an hour before the wind we were getting here started to effect Auckland airport)...so there was an opportunity for real time forecasting on the spot instead of just using computer model output guidence..and a warning could have gone out 1 hour advance warning?..hind sight is a wonderfull thing though

[einzack]

We're getting good rain down this way. Up to 34mm so far - with 30mm since since 6am. No wind at all, and rather chilly. Fire's going, and definitely an inside day.

And with Metservice forecasting another 60mm before tomorrow morning, it could get rather soggy round here.....

[Manukau heads obs]

is that your street spwill ?
(re power poles down)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8865136 ... -thousands

[Razor]

Remarkble snowfalls underway in the south this pic from the Cardrona facebook page at 8am this mofning

[Nev]

I see Tiritiri peaked at 122 km/h (66 kt) last night.

I thought the marine warning MS had out for the Waitemata/Hauraki Gulf yesterday for gusts to 45 kts in the evening was a bit conservative, although some time last night they did upgrade that to 55 kt gusts.

[Bradley]

Snow has mad it all the way down to Mt Cook village with a NE - remarkable for January!!

[NZstorm]

Warm advection snow. Well done to Tich for predicting this yesterday.

The elevation of the Hermitage is 765m.

[spwill]

is that your street spwill ?
(re power poles down)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8865136 ... -thousands

No, the damage near me is on Marsdon Ave Mt Eden, next street to mine, it has taken power out for the area.
More photos

[Manukau heads obs]

I thought the marine warning MS had out for the Waitemata/Hauraki Gulf yesterday for gusts to 45 kts in the evening was a bit conservative

so did I
no point in a 5am update to that forecast coming more in line..it was all over by then

this low was in the models for a week
there was some uncertainty over how far north it would track
but not much uncertainty over how deep it was going to be..so a severe gale northerly was on the cards...and was actually in the severe weather outlook for a couple of days for the whole NI (low chance)

woa spwill...looked like damage to those parked cars !

[03Stormchaser]

Can't see any cricket being played today at Hagley, persistent rain all morning.

Sent from my VIE-L09 using Tapatalk

[Manukau heads obs]

still lot of people with no power in this district even now
(obviously we have power, being off grid )

[Manukau heads obs]

I see the forum is back
here is a picture of the reported faults that counties power had to work through yesterday
They still have more faults to fix today

[Nev]

Apparently, the 10:15pm Fullers ferry to Waiheke on Saturday night had turn around and head back to downtown Akld. The next and last ferry at 11:45pm was also cancelled, leaving Waihekians stranded overnight in the city and tourists stranded on the Island. This is very rare, so conditions must have been exceptional. Perhaps if there had been some warnings out commuters may have considered earlier sailings…

[Nev]

Here's another list of some of MS's max-gusts over the weekend…

Code: Select all

Max Gusts (km/h) for the 24 hrs to 3pm, Jan 22

159  Mahia Radar
131  Brothers Island
126  Cape Turnagain
124  Waiouru
119  Mana Island
115  Nelson Airport
113  Kaikoura
113  Tutukaka Harbour
109  Kelburn 
107  Whangaparaoa
104  Mahia
104  Cape Kidnappers
100  Auckland Airport
100  Wellington Airport 
98  Cape Reinga
98  Okahu Island (BoI)
98  Mokohinau
98  Ardmore Aerodrome
96  Mount Stratford
96  Farewell Spit
94  White Island
94  Tolaga Bay
94  Lower Hutt
94  Haast
93  Hawera
93  Paraparaumu Aerodrome
91  New Plymouth Airport
89  Hicks Bay

[NZstorm]

Apparently, the 10:15pm Fullers ferry to Waiheke on Saturday night had turn around and head back to downtown Akld. The next and last ferry at 11:45pm was also cancelled, leaving Waihekians stranded overnight in the city and tourists stranded on the Island. This is very rare, so conditions must have been exceptional. Perhaps if there had been some warnings out commuters may have considered earlier sailings…

I have to say I was surprised no northern areas were included in those severe wind warnings issued on Saturday morning. The approaching system was bringing in a low level jet of 55knots at 850mb and that is always a good indicator of strong winds to come.

[Nev]

I have to say I was surprised no northern areas were included in those severe wind warnings issued on Saturday morning. The approaching system was bringing in a low level jet of 55knots at 850mb and that is always a good indicator of strong winds to come.

Yes, agreed (see wind-chart). Northern areas weren't even included in MS's 9pm Warning/Watches update... about the same time some commuters were throwing-up on an earlier Waiheke sailing…

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, that 9pm update was their chance to at least put auckland under a watch
(that would at least alert power companies to call in more staff and for people to check their properties and to prepare for possible power cuts etc ?)
they would have had real time windspeed from auckland ariport showing the wind was increasing rapidly and the barometer was dropping quickly

anyway, its done now and hindsight is a great thing
but maybe they might be able to put in some checks for next time to be able to more quickly react to real time changing conditions?

[Manukau heads obs]

ps,there are reports of hay barns that blew down and roofs off houses in this district
worst NE wind since the 80's maybe (for south auckland/franklin)

I wonder if what happened was that the wind was forced around the end of the main frontal line
as the rain was not as heavy over the Franklin area

it would be cool to see a mesoscale isobar map

[Tornado Tim]

One of the MetOcean sites that we monitor at my work, located offshore Taranaki recorded a rouge 26.1 meter wave yesterday at 3.30 PM!

We are going to confirm with the site operators today, to see if that value recorded was legitimate.

[Manukau heads obs]

we are watching some monster swells on the west coast here currently Tim
swell that you normally only see in winter/spring
(it looks like 6m --- 5.5m is in the marine forecast)

[Tornado Tim]

Yea hs averages for that site around that period were around 13-14 meters, huge waves! Phenomenal for this time of year!