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NZstorm
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by NZstorm Tue 14/02/2017 07:37
Manukau heads obs wrote: I see at 2am or so the strikes were close to me..but no cigar
Kawhia perhaps the only place to get a storm.
Looking moist with precip chances over the upper North Island for the rest of the week. Thunder later in week??
Localised heavy falls over the top of Northland tomorrow which will ease the drought.
Manukau heads obs
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by Manukau heads obs Tue 14/02/2017 07:43
yes, it does look like the front is going to get left behind and hang around for a few days in an easterly trough
jamie
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by jamie Tue 14/02/2017 08:27
Yea should be a thunder day or two over the North Island over the next week.
Rogue
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by Rogue Tue 14/02/2017 09:27
Watching forecast for Saturday and Sunday with interest
David
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by David Tue 14/02/2017 20:13
Max of just 19.5C here today, rare to get a max below 20C in Feb for Auckland. In fact, the previous lowest daily max across the last 7 Februaries for my station is 20.7C
Nev
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by Nev Tue 14/02/2017 20:50
Yeah, been hovering around 19C here most of the day and only briefly made it to 20.4C around 4pm. 5.0mm of heavy drizzle throughout most of the day.
David
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by David Wed 15/02/2017 06:08
GFS showing some heavy rain Thurs/Fri, hopefully we'll get a good amount this time
einzack
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by einzack Wed 15/02/2017 08:29
Down to a chilly 3.9°C this morning.
Manukau heads obs
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by Manukau heads obs Wed 15/02/2017 09:12
the next high is expected to stick around so more Feb like conditions next week
spwill
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by spwill Wed 15/02/2017 09:42
Current GFS shows good ingredients for afternoon heat showers/thunder over the NI Saturday, something to watch.
katipo
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by katipo Wed 15/02/2017 11:29
When will the wind in Christchurch swing back to the usually reliable NE ?
Cashmere CHC 90mASL
TonyT
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by TonyT Wed 15/02/2017 11:39
katipo wrote: When will the wind in Christchurch swing back to the usually reliable NE ?
Today. But the strength of the northeasterly in the next few days may be problematic. At least if the fire gets blown back over its tracks it should have little left to burn.
TonyT
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by TonyT Wed 15/02/2017 15:38
Interesting that we got a strong whiff of smoke here in Amberley when the easterly arrived early this afternoon. The smoke must have looped around from the Port Hills, blowing out to sea on the light westerly this morning then coming back in over North Canterbury as the easterly developed. A very clear pyro-cumulus visible over the hills also.
Skywatcher
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by Skywatcher Wed 15/02/2017 16:12
You can see the pyro-Cu on the rain radar.
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Bradley
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by Bradley Wed 15/02/2017 16:40
The fire has certainly really stocked up since this morning, that NE is quite strong too
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TonyT
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by TonyT Wed 15/02/2017 17:35
Another view of the pyro-cumulus, photo credit to my brother Tim.
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Orion
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by Orion Wed 15/02/2017 17:38
Diffuse brownish haze visible on north-eastern horizon from here in Ashburton.
Richard
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by Richard Wed 15/02/2017 18:06
TonyT wrote: Interesting that we got a strong whiff of smoke here in Amberley when the easterly arrived early this afternoon. The smoke must have looped around from the Port Hills, blowing out to sea on the light westerly this morning then coming back in over North Canterbury as the easterly developed. A very clear pyro-cumulus visible over the hills also.
Yes that smoke is even coming in from the east here too, i noticed it an hour ago but didnt click to it being from CHCH till you mentuned it
Orion
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by Orion Wed 15/02/2017 18:35
Skywatcher wrote: You can see the pyro-Cu on the rain radar.
Those radar images are worth preserving for posterity
spwill
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by spwill Wed 15/02/2017 19:02
The afternoon northeaster really cranking that fire up this afternoon unfortunately.
Nev
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by Nev Wed 15/02/2017 19:22
Here's one quick closeup grab of the pyro-cu at 4pm.
Pyro-Cu - MetService Chch Radar - Feb 15, 4pm.png
Also this one posted on Twitter.
Pyro-Cu - MetService Chch Radar - Feb 15, 2.30pm.jpg
Thunder081 might have movie?
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TonyT
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by TonyT Wed 15/02/2017 19:28
I might be splitting hairs here, but suspect the radar is not showing the cloud which was formed (what I would call a pyro-cumulus), but the heavier smoke particles from the fire. Maybe Tunster or someone else from MS could tell us what is the smallest sized particle the radar would reflect off.
Weather Watcher
MetService Meteorologist
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by Weather Watcher Wed 15/02/2017 20:15
Correct, the radar will be detecting smoke particles or ash. Based on investigations into the 2012 Tongariro (Te Maari) volcanic eruptions, the radars are able to detect particles down to about 0.5 to 1.0mm diameter.
