Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wind is light NW here already, which is earlier than the models forecasted
i.e this whole trough and low has developed fast
(was cool to see that happening ;) )
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Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

44 here so far with more to come
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

similar amount here :)
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

Saturdays prosects.
Looking like the eastern and central ranges have the best thunderstorm prospects tomorrow. But I think southern Waikato will be worth a drive for a possible stormchase. There will be good heating tomorrow.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by David »

Manukau heads obs wrote:wind is light NW here already, which is earlier than the models forecasted
i.e this whole trough and low has developed fast
(was cool to see that happening ;) )
Yeah, that cleared a fair bit earlier than I was expecting... extra 22mm since midnight in Howick takes our total to 70mm. Lawns & garden looking greener already _b
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Orion »

My Whangaparaoa Spies are rejoicing at full water-tanks _b
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Nev »

I see there was a fair amount of lightning up around Northland's west coast around midnight, and a few from the Kaipara to the outer Gulf around 6am this morn.

Here's this morn's MS T-storm update for today…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Friday 17 Feb 2017
Issued at: 8:38am Friday 17 Feb 2017

An active trough is moving slowly southeastwards across the North Island today, spreading a very humid northerly flow over northern New Zealand. Combined with cold air aloft, this makes for very unstable conditions, leading to heavy falls and possible localised downpours in places.

The trough has crossed Northland earlier this morning, and is moving across Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula at present. Behind the trough, daytime heating and wind convergences will lead to the development of heavy showers this afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms north of a line Taranaki to Central Hawkes Bay to eastern Bay of Plenty. Any thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by small hail, and heavy rain of up to 25mm/hr. There is even a low risk of localised downpours of up to 40mm/hr.

A low risk area extends to east Cape and the Tararua Range, as depicted on the chart.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

MetService T-Storm Outlook map - Feb 17.png
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Nev »

81mm here for the 40 hrs to 9am this morn… clearing now.

I see NIWA's Kaitaia site recorded 144mm in the 48 hrs to 9am this morn…

MetService Akld 24hr Rain-radar Accum. to 6am, 17 Feb.jpg
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

With the clearance about to reach here (I see the blue sky to my north) we should get some decent heating. GFS has at 4pm -6 LI, 1200 CAPE, and a convergence line running down through Hamilton. Looks juicy!

I am heading down to Taupo this evening and will be there all weekend for the round Taupo relay. Hope nothing amazing develops around home tonight and I miss it.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

very light sea breeze here on the coast
but its cloud here , so no heating
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Yes they cloudy sky and rain this afternoon has killed of any chance I think.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

The radar currently showing up that convergence zone quite well, from Northland to Waikato.

Brighter skies in central Auckland now. Should be ok for cricket.
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Unread post by cbm »

Lightning in Ham central now. Quite close.

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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

The Hamilton storm dropped 25mm in an hr according to a number of PWS.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by spwill »

A lot of cloud cover here today , convergence over Auckland has been weak.

Nice cells on the radar near Hamilton currently
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Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Darn...in Taupo and it looks like Hamilton getting it and home got a quick 7mm
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Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Looks like the convergence keeps building over my place. Getting very heavy rain there
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Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Thunder here in Taupo now. I've now had 70mm at home. Not often we get that much from one event.
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Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Well I did my walk through the night. Had lightning to the west and heavy rain. Back in Taupo and have torrential rain here.

I notice I'm now up to 80mm at home from the event. Quite an interesting event.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Nev »

I see Hamilton Aero is up to 104mm to 6am for this event so far, 128mm at Tauranga Aero and 130mm at Rotorua Aero. And in Hawke's Bay, 56mm at Napier Aero and 60mm at Hastings.

The graphics below show Blitzortung's CG's over the last 2 nights…

Blitzortung NZ - 12 hrs to 8am, Feb 17.png
Blitzortung NZ - 24 hrs to 5am, Feb 18.png
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

The overnight lightning has been associated with quite a strong 500mb vorticity max. GFS chart for 3am this morning.

It sure created a lot of showers overnight for the inland North Island. On the weatherzone IR satellite loop you can see the rotation.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by David »

We've got mist/fog here this morning with 18C, can't recall the last time I saw that in February.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Nev »

Yeah, misty fog here also this morn… 8-o

This morn's MS T-Storm update for today looks interesting…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Saturday 18 Feb 2017
Issued at: 8:39am Saturday 18 Feb 2017

Today, very humid northeasterlies, strong daytime heating and wind convergences combine to produce very unstable conditions over northern and central New Zealand. Showers are likely over much of central and northern New Zealand. There is a high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over large parts of the central and southern North Island, as depicted on the chart. These thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates of 10 to 25mm/hr and small hail. In a smaller area from Taumarunui to inland Hawkes Bay, Manawatu and Wairarapa, there is even a moderate risk of SEVERE thunderstorms producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm/hr. A moderate risk of thunderstorms also covers inland Northland, and also inland parts of Nelson and Marlborough. A lesser risk of thunderstorms covers remaining parts of the North Island and upper South Island. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

MetService T-Storm Outlook map - Feb 18.png
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by spwill »

A possible afternoon chase south of Auckland this afternoon, will depend on how skies clear.
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Re: Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wow, great to see!
sunshine breaking through here
will be a sea breeze alright, so a boundary inland alright
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