Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

[NZstorm]

A possible afternoon chase south of Auckland this afternoon, will depend on how skies clear.

I think skies brighten with temps possible above 25C in places north of Taupo. So heating should trigger a thunderstorm or two despite the fact the 500mb trough is moving further away from us today and weakening.

[Manukau heads obs]

cloudied up again here now after initial heating

[tgsnoopy]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emerge ... -flooding/

[Tornado Tim]

cloudied up again here now after initial heating

Yea, think it be similar to Yesterdays setup, which wasnt overly organised. Northerly flows and the hint of Daytime heating = instant cloud cover, high precip and low probability of seeing any storm structure.

[Tornado Tim]

Dew point up to a tropical 21-22°C atm at 25°C Temp, SFC conditions are ripe!

[Tornado Tim]

Uh oh, its already starting with a line just to the east of me, damb it. No cap at all it going hinder PM dtsh.

[NZstorm]

Uh oh, its already starting with a line just to the east of me, damb it. No cap at all it going hinder PM dtsh.

I was thinking this morning this could happen. Too many showers developing early killing off the CAPE.

[David]

Some good heating here with sunny spells and 24-25C, looks like some showers developing in south Auckland.

[NZstorm]

I see there was flooding in Kawerau early this morning. A nearby regional council site recorded 23mm in an hour.
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/emerge ... -flooding/

[Manukau heads obs]

cloud breaking and its heating up
I can see good build ups to my east
interested in a chase north waikato?

[spwill]

Could meet you at Bombay Brian.

Mostly overcaste here, very humid as there is no breeze at all.

[Manukau heads obs]

kewl, text me spwill for a time to meet if it looks like its worth it
0272359040

[Tornado Tim]

Getting a clearing from the west, excellent

[David]

Mostly sunny skies in Auckland now, but doesn't seem to be any convergence going on - looks like all the action will be to the south.

[spwill]

Drove south into Waikato this afternoon, not much developed down there, some T Cu/ rather weak Cbs observed.
It was good to catch up with Brian

[Manukau heads obs]

a bust but a good meet up
hot and humid day

[Tornado Tim]

Yea I think models had put bets on having good clearance and getting good surface heating and higher resulting CAPE.

Unfortunately these moisture laden setups have a tendency for failing due to heaps of cloud cover, only with the odd partly cloudy spell.

[Manukau heads obs]

it just looks all too warm , except for one tower that got its snout high enough and formed a good anvil ..but it did not last

[NZstorm]

it just looks all too warm , except for one tower that got its snout high enough and formed a good anvil ..but it did not last

and more than likely the low level moisture was mixing upward with the lack of a cap.

500mb trough also moving away.

One storm has managed to form just west of Lake Taupo.

[Rogue]

I caught up to that storm at Waiouru, was impressive from a distance but I only observed a little bit of IC lightning. Day had been looking good early on but I guess that was just the lack of cap. Bust.

[David]

Still some leftover patchy rain/shower bands around, we got 2mm overnight, further east at Maraetai a PWS recorded 15mm.

Also, Rotorua got over 220mm the last 3 days!

[NZstorm]

Rainfall chart for Tarawera in the Bay of Plenty.

[spwill]

Some impressive rain totals.
The humid weather hangs around this week but it should be a fairly sunny week.

[NZstorm]

A muggy morning with dp on 21C.
The lifted Index values drop below zero again over the North Island this afternoon so further isolated heavy showers.
No doubt there will be some lightning somewhere, more possible south of Taupo where the upper air is a bit colder.

[Nev]

Still some leftover patchy rain/shower bands around, we got 2mm overnight, further east at Maraetai a PWS recorded 15mm.

Also, Rotorua got over 220mm the last 3 days!

Yeah, that 224mm at Rotorua Aero to date includes an impressive 124mm yesterday.
Tauranga Aero also up around 144mm over the last few days, while Hamilton Aero, Whitianga Aero, Taupo Aero and Napier Aero are also all over 105mm.

Another 14mm here (mostly overnight) bringing our total to 95mm since Wednesday evening.