Moist trough 16-18th Feb North Island

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 15/02/2017 08:18

An upper level trough is modeled to amplify in the Tasman and approach the North Island next day or two. A moist subtropical airmass spreads south over the North Island with a decent soaking on the cards for many places. Of coarse Northland and Auckland need the rain.

Perhaps thunder chances on Friday. Saturday is a bit uncertain and will depend on how quickly the upper trough moves. I notice the EU brings a ridge in by late Saturday.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 15/02/2017 12:55

Latest gfs rainfall accumulation chart. Thurs/Friday.

Ground very dry here currently.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 15/02/2017 21:31

NZstorm wrote:An upper level trough is modeled to amplify in the Tasman and approach the North Island next day or two. A moist subtropical airmass spreads south over the North Island with a decent soaking on the cards for many places.

Doh! I underestimated it huh. I'm doing work partially outside at customer/patients premises in Rotorua area tomorrow and Whakatane/Opotiki on Friday. I sure hope it doesn't become a significant event.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/02/2017 07:00

steady rain here now has set in
great for the farmers
only 14.4c
will be a cold day...

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/02/2017 07:16

2mm of light rain in Howick since midnight. Will be the first really wet day of the year if forecasts are correct

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/02/2017 07:39

Warm front inbound now. Current dewpoint is 13C but will rise to 20C this afternoon.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/02/2017 07:49

Yes, humid air over Northland currently about to move in.

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NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/02/2017 08:15

GFS has a convergence zone over us tomorrow.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/02/2017 08:24

only 13.7C here now

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/02/2017 11:05

Manukau heads obs wrote:only 13.7C here now

Gradually climbing in Howick... 17.3C now. Still, that's pretty low for this time of day in February.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 16/02/2017 12:07

First really decent rainfall here for while... 20mm so far since around 5pm yesterday…

Northland farmers will also be happy. Kerikeri Aero and Kaikohe have had around 45mm so far since around midday yesterday.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/02/2017 12:57

Niwa saying 76mm in Kaitaia.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/02/2017 13:29

Looks like Auckland skies will brighten from early tomorrow afternoon, it will be interesting to see what can develop with some heating in the mix. Cool upper levels tomorrow afternoon, very moist low levels and convergence.

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/02/2017 13:44

Rain seems to be lighter here than shown by GFS so far, 14mm of mostly light rain since midnight.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 16/02/2017 14:05

NZstorm wrote:Niwa saying 76mm in Kaitaia.

Yeah, and that was just to 9am this morn…

Up to 34mm here now...

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/02/2017 16:58

Well it turns out the rain gauge was partially blocked up thanks to some evil bird... could tell something was wrong when I got home to quite decent rain and having the weather station say 1.6mm/hr. Sure enough, there was a lot of water built up in the funnel

Have cleared it and now and edited my rain readings to match other stations nearby to me

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 16/02/2017 18:30

Just heard a roll of thunder here.

Brassnz · Unread post by **Brassnz** » Thu 16/02/2017 18:45

Some good rain today, 40.1mm and counting...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 16/02/2017 19:20

Good to see the rain up there to where it is needed.
hope it is not too heavy to cause run offs.
We need rain down here, now, well it's dry out there with the fires on the Port Hills, we could do with a bit of moisture from the atmosphere, rather than the recent NW winds of late being later than usual.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/02/2017 20:15

looks some good heavy rain bands developing down the west side of northland now

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/02/2017 22:29

35mm since 6am here now, nice

alot more to come overnight
19.2C now

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 16/02/2017 23:55

26 here so far. I would think another 20 - 30mm isn't out of the question as still to come.

I like the looks of thunder the next few days

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 17/02/2017 06:09

Another burst of heavy here currently, 55mm for this event so far.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 17/02/2017 06:35

Up to 70mm here now for this event so far.
I see Whangaparaoa's had 61mm, compared to 42mm at Akld Aero.
Also around 60mm up at Kerikeri Aero and Kaikohe.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 17/02/2017 06:51

45mm here so far and looking like a few hours of intermittent heavy rain to come. Perhaps a thundery downpour this morning but there is no heating.

The system will be through Auckland by early afternoon with skies brightening up in the afternoon.

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