Moist trough 7th to 13th March

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 09/03/2017 14:45

NZstorm wrote:One of my customers was involved in the washed out school camp in the Hunuas. I asked him why they went with such a bad forecast. He said they definitely would not have gone if there was a heavy rain raining! They had to get the Fire Brigade to help get them out.

From memory there was a heavy rain watch for Auckland. But seems some people ignore a watch and only act on a warning.

There was a severe thunderstorm watch as well from MetService.

Northland catching thunderstorms today, I see Kerikeri (MS) showing a 2hr fall of 45.6mm, 69.2mm for the day so far.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 09/03/2017 17:41

Lots of instability coming from tomorrow onwards, and it looks like there is a decent chance of catching storms too!
Dew Points forecast to go to around 22-23C in some parts!

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 09/03/2017 20:37

Large amounts of CAPE for NZ forecast for sure....

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 09/03/2017 21:23

Wow big CAPE numbers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 09/03/2017 22:08

Thunder risk in Auckland tomorrow seems to be late morning to early afternoon. GFS.

Then again Saturday afternoon.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 09/03/2017 22:16

NZstorm wrote:Thunder risk in Auckland tomorrow seems to be late morning to early afternoon. GFS.

Then again Saturday afternoon.

Good.
Will be good to see some Auckland thunderstorm activity during my visit this WE

Manukau heads obs · Fri 10/03/2017 06:01

what days are you up north John?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Fri 10/03/2017 08:44

Convection firing well up north, not much sparking on it yet tough......

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Fri 10/03/2017 09:39

EC really liking this system for Canterbury, much more then GFS which is interesting. EC going for around 30-35mm for the event whilst GFS only going for around 20mm, I find EC over exaggerates systems out of winter though, it seems it does it's best work in June, July and August when it comes to rain/snow predictions. Time will tell I guess on this one...

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 10/03/2017 09:46

There sure have been some heavy downpours in Northland last few days, rain gauge at Kaeo recorded an hourly fall above 45mm on 2 consecutive days: http://www.nrc.govt.nz/Models/Hilltop/D ... l+Stations

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 10/03/2017 10:24

Model output looking less favourable for lightning later today/overnight but more favourable for rain.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 10/03/2017 10:31

Interesting regarding chc, currently looking like some heavy falls late Saturday. May see the usual rivers flood, Heathcote esp if this happenss

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Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Fri 10/03/2017 12:29

Advice received from http://www.aucklandcivildefence.org.nz/emergency-status which reads in part:

"Prepare for more severe weather.

While it was a quieter night for Auckland following yesterday’s flooding, Aucklanders should be prepared for more severe weather over the coming days.

MetService is advising that further bursts of heavy rain are expected in the Auckland region between now and Sunday.

Localised downpours are possible anywhere in the region on Friday and Saturday, with the highest risk times expected to be before dawn on Friday, and again Friday night and into Saturday morning..."

- See more at: http://www.aucklandcivildefence.org.nz/ ... 6GE70.dpuf

Wishing safe travels to all in the region.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Fri 10/03/2017 16:22

Bumpy flying into Auckland 7.20am tomorrow then out to Niue at 9?

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David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 10/03/2017 17:12

Very heavy rain on my drive home right through Mt Wellington to Howick area, torrential at times. My station has recorded 17mm in the last hour.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 10/03/2017 17:41

Greylynn showing 20mm in the last hr

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 10/03/2017 17:55

Intermittent heavy rain.

Divergence from the subtropical jet stream helping to energise the rain clouds!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Fri 10/03/2017 17:56

Bradley wrote:EC really liking this system for Canterbury, much more then GFS which is interesting. EC going for around 30-35mm for the event whilst GFS only going for around 20mm, I find EC over exaggerates systems out of winter though, it seems it does it's best work in June, July and August when it comes to rain/snow predictions. Time will tell I guess on this one...

MetService going for more like 50mm+ over the event period for up here, if only this happens, this will see a fantastic start for farming going into early autumn

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 10/03/2017 18:01

Unrelenting rain here, up to 37mm now

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 10/03/2017 18:23

A lot of heavy rain at my place last 15mins but not showing up at Greylynn.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 10/03/2017 18:53

41mm here so far today, mostly since about 3pm…

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Fri 10/03/2017 19:00

spwill wrote:A lot of heavy rain at my place last 15mins but not showing up at Greylynn.

Just fixed a cable fault outside where rodents had eaten into a cable of the weather station and water had found its way into the conductors
I put out a container when I saw it had stopped and got an extra 18mm while I was fixing the fault..

Manukau heads obs · Fri 10/03/2017 19:29

Big slip on Waiheke island by the sounds of it

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 10/03/2017 19:53

27mm in the past hour at my place. I'm down in Taihape though.

David · Unread post by **David** » Fri 10/03/2017 20:29

Just hit a rain rate of 124 mm/hr a few minutes ago... was intense!

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