Moist trough 7th to 13th March

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/03/2017 07:04

A north Tasman Sea low will direct moisture onto NZ in the coming days. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the country during the period.

First heavy rain episode is due later today/early tomorrow over the upper North Island as a warm front moves across.

Upper Northland looks the favoured spot for thunder for the next 3 days.

Chart GFS 12hour rainfall to midnight tonight.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 07/03/2017 07:19

was a good red sky this morning:)

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 07/03/2017 09:58

Severe Weather Warnings now been issued:

Metservice Severe Weather Forecast Team wrote: Issue Time: 9:31 am 07-Mar-2017
Heavy rain for the central and upper North Island.
A low and associated fronts over the Tasman Sea are moving southeastwards, and will bring rain to much of the North Island. The heaviest falls are likely to be in Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty, and a Heavy Rain Warning is now in place for these areas. Up to 150mm of rain could accumulate in a relatively brief period, with localised thundery downpours. Please note, that a Watch is in force for significant heavy rain for Northland, Auckland, Waitomo, Taranaki, Taumarunui, Taupo, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay. The initial burst of rain should ease during Wednesday, but further rain is expected during Thursday and Friday. Rainfall of this intensity can produce flash flooding and cause rivers and streams to rise rapidly. It can also lead to adverse conditions for motorists.
People in the North Island are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING

Waikato
Rain is forecast to become heavy this evening. In the 12 hours from 6pm today till 6am Wednesday, expect 80 to 120mm of rain to accumulate. Peak intensities of 25-40mm overnight.

Coromandel Peninsula
Rain is forecast to become heavy this evening. In the 18 hours from 6pm today till noon Wednesday, expect 80 to 130mm of rain to accumulate, possibly even 150mm about the ranges. Peak intensities of 25-40mm overnight and early Wednesday morning.

Bay of Plenty
Rain is forecast to become heavy tonight. In the 18 hours from 9pm tonight till 3pm Wednesday, expect 100 to 130mm of rain to accumulate, possibly even 150mm in the west. Peak intensities of 25 to 40mm/hr overnight and Wednesday morning

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 07/03/2017 10:16

So not looking promising for the first ever round of day night first class cricket up there then. Day / Night 1 unscathed but the next three look dicey for Auckland and Hamilton. Less so for Wellington

1mm of annoyance factor here in ChCh this morning, we could really use 20-30mm but that's not going to happen here

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 07/03/2017 10:37

Razor wrote:1mm of annoyance factor here in ChCh this morning, we could really use 20-30mm but that's not going to happen here

10mm here in Amberley this morning and still raining. Sunday will bring you some more, you might get near 20mm.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 07/03/2017 10:51

Not often we get nearly a full week of on & off subtropical rains - models showing total accumulation at least 100mm. The gardens love that warm rain, probably will see a huge growth spurt...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 07/03/2017 11:11

Wednesday/Thursday not looking too bad for Auckland city, the weekend looking humid with possible thundery downpours.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 07/03/2017 11:12

Hmmmm I'm camping at lake karapiro. Tonight could be wet!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/03/2017 11:58

jamie wrote:Hmmmm I'm camping at lake karapiro. Tonight could be wet!

86mm in 6hours in that area from midnight according to 18Z gfs.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 07/03/2017 12:11

lower cloud is building here already
has warmed up alot too, and the dew point has jumped up

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Tue 07/03/2017 13:27

NZstorm wrote:
jamie wrote:Hmmmm I'm camping at lake karapiro. Tonight could be wet!
86mm in 6hours in that area from midnight according to 18Z gfs.

Without any orographic enhancement will need a bull's eye hit to achieve that total.

Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 07/03/2017 14:45

Quite a heavy downpour in Parnell already

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/03/2017 14:55

Yes, heavy rain in Auckland currently from a convective line. 13mm in the last hour here.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 07/03/2017 16:14

TonyT wrote:
Razor wrote:1mm of annoyance factor here in ChCh this morning, we could really use 20-30mm but that's not going to happen here
10mm here in Amberley this morning and still raining. Sunday will bring you some more, you might get near 20mm.

Ended up with 4.5mm until early afternoon... hopefully that followup come weekend

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 07/03/2017 17:37

Smashed down in Auckland city at lunch earlier with a few overflowing gutters with the leaf fall on the roads!

Manukau heads obs · Tue 07/03/2017 17:42

that rain early afternoon sure came on fast!

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Tue 07/03/2017 17:50

Some oppressive-looking clouds about to my east and west, atmosphere seems to have that still, silent quality; nothing significant appearing on radar...

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 07/03/2017 17:57

Had some pretty torrential falls here between 3:30pm and 5:30pm this arvo... 37mm so far today…

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 07/03/2017 18:01

Absolutely pouring at karapiro!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/03/2017 18:16

Can we get thunder overnight? Definitely possible but probably elevated if we get any.

Dew point chart here defines the surface boundary quite well. 4am.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 07/03/2017 18:21

Just had a very short but incredible deluge... rain rate up around 180 mm/hr, haven't seen anything that heavy for a fair while! 9mm so far today.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2017 18:47

I've ordered some thunderstorms for Auckland when I'm up there later this week.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 07/03/2017 19:15

Far out this rain is crazy. Just continuous rain at what looks like 20+ mm/hr

Brassnz · Unread post by **Brassnz** » Tue 07/03/2017 22:21

Only 6.5mm so far today out here in the bush.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2017 22:49

Nice drop of rain today morning. 9.1mm all up to early this afternoon.
Could do with some more. Fairly dry here.

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